PlanetaryInsights

    Browse sources

    U.S. real GDP growth

    Projected growth in inflation-adjusted U.S. gross domestic product.

    United States / Global · %24 extracted figures12 institutions5 comparable groups

    Revisions on this metric

    1 on record
    2025-06-18Fed 2025 Q4 · Q4/Q41.7%→1.4%

    2025 full year · Annual growth

    3 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    1.50%2.13%2.50%CONSENSUSDEC 24FEB 25MAY 25Morgan Stanley · 1.5% · 2025-05-28J.P. Morgan · 2.4% · 2025-02-28Goldman Sachs · 2.5% · 2024-12-02Goldman Sachs 2.5%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Morgan Stanley2025 full year“U.S. economic growth is likely to slow to 1.5% (1% 4Q/4Q) this year and 1% in 2026” — U.S. Growth and Inflation · source ↗2025-05-281.5%
    J.P. Morgan2025 full year“According to J.P. Morgan Research, however, U.S. GDP growth is set to slow slightly this year to 2.4% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024 (on a full-year basis), while the unemployment rate is forecast to gradually increase to a peak of 4.2% around the middle of the year, up from January’s reading of 4.0%.” — Section “What’s the US growth outlook?”, paragraph beginning “According to J.P. Morgan Research” · source ↗2025-02-282.4%
    Goldman Sachs2025 full year“They forecast GDP growth to beat expectations at 2.5% in 2025” — Opening summary · source ↗2024-12-022.5%
    Readout
    Consensus
    2.13%
    Spread
    +1.00%
    Low
    1.50%
    High
    2.50%
    Reporting
    3
    Basis
    Annual growth

    2025 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    3 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    1.00%1.37%1.70%CONSENSUSMAR 25APR 25JUN 25Fed · 1.4% · 2025-06-18Morgan Stanley · 1.0% · 2025-05-28Fed · 1.7% · 2025-03-19Goldman Sachs · 1.7% · 2025-03-13Goldman Sachs 1.7%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fed2025 Q4“Change in real GDP 1.4” — Table 1 · 2025 median · source ↗2025-06-181.4%
    Morgan Stanley2025 Q4“U.S. economic growth is likely to slow to 1.5% (1% 4Q/4Q) this year and 1% in 2026” — U.S. Growth and Inflation · source ↗2025-05-281.0%
    Fed2025 Q4“Change in real GDP 1.7” — Table 1, page 2 · 2025 median · source ↗2025-03-191.7%
    Goldman Sachs2025 Q4“Our economists reduced their prediction for US GDP expansion to 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025 (year over year)” — Opening section · source ↗2025-03-131.7%
    Readout
    Consensus
    1.37%
    Spread
    +0.70%
    Low
    1.00%
    High
    1.70%
    Reporting
    3
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly SAAR

    3 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    1.60%2.00%2.20%CONSENSUSJUL 26JUL 26JUL 26Wells Fargo · 1.6% · 2026-07-30RBC · 2.2% · 2026-07-13Fannie Mae · 2.2% · 2026-07-10Fannie Mae 2.2%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Wells Fargo2026 Q4“Real Gross Domestic Product (a) | 2026 4Q | 1.6” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-301.6%
    RBC2026 Q4“Real gross domestic product | 2026 Q4 | 2.2” — U.S. Forecast Detail · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-132.2%
    Fannie Mae2026 Q4“Gross Domestic Product | 26.4 | 2.2” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-102.2%
    Readout
    Consensus
    2.00%
    Spread
    +0.60%
    Low
    1.60%
    High
    2.20%
    Reporting
    3
    Basis
    Quarterly SAAR

    2026 full year · Annual growth

    2 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    1.00%1.55%2.10%CONSENSUSMAY 25DEC 25JUL 26EIA · 2.1 · 2026-07-07Morgan Stanley · 1% · 2025-05-28Morgan Stanley 1%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    EIA2026 full year“| U.S. GDP <br>(percentage change) | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 |” — Overview table, U.S. GDP row · source ↗2026-07-072.1
    Morgan Stanley2026 full year“After growing 2.8% in 2024 (2.5% 4Q/4Q), U.S. economic growth is likely to slow to 1.5% (1% 4Q/4Q) this year and 1% in 2026.” — U.S. Growth and Inflation section · source ↗2025-05-281%
    Readout
    Consensus
    1.55%
    Spread
    +1.10%
    Low
    1.00%
    High
    2.10%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Annual growth

    2025 full year · Calendar year

    2 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    1.90%1.95%2.00%CONSENSUSJAN 25JUN 25DEC 25OECD · 2.0% · 2025-12-02CBO · 1.9% · 2025-01-17CBO 1.9%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    OECD2025 full year“Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026 before picking up to 1.9% in 2027” — United States overview · source ↗2025-12-022.0%
    CBO2025 full year“economic growth cools from an estimated 2.3 percent in calendar year 2024 to 1.9 percent in 2025 and 1.8 percent in 2026” — The Economic Outlook · source ↗2025-01-171.9%
    Readout
    Consensus
    1.95%
    Spread
    +0.10%
    Low
    1.90%
    High
    2.00%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Calendar year

    2025 full year · Full year

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    J.P. Morgan2025 full year“GDP growth is set to slow slightly this year to 2.4% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024 (on a full-year basis)” — The global outlook for 2025 · source ↗2025-02-282.4%
    Readout
    Low
    2.40%
    High
    2.40%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Full year

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly SAAR

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Real GDP (%) | New 1.6” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗2026-05-151.6%
    Readout
    Low
    1.60%
    High
    1.60%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly SAAR

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 Q2 · Quarterly SAAR

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Atlanta Fed2026 Q2“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2026 is 1.7 percent on July 17, unchanged from July 16.” — Current and Past GDPNow Commentaries · July 17, 2026 · source ↗2026-07-171.7%
    Readout
    Low
    1.70%
    High
    1.70%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly SAAR

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 Q3 · Quarterly SAAR

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Atlanta Fed2026 Q3“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is **5.8 percent** on August 6, **down from 5.9 percent** on August 4.” — August 6, 2026 commentary · source ↗2026-08-075.8 percent
    Readout
    Low
    5.80%
    High
    5.80%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly SAAR

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fed2026 Q4“| Change in real GDP | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2–1.5 | 1.5–1.8 | 1.7–2.0 | 1.7–2.0 | 1.1–2.1 | 0.6–2.5 | 0.6–2.5 | 1.5–2.5 |” — Table 1, Change in real GDP, median row, 2026 column · source ↗2025-06-181.6
    Readout
    Low
    1.60%
    High
    1.60%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2027 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fed2027 Q4“| Change in real GDP | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2–1.5 | 1.5–1.8 | 1.7–2.0 | 1.7–2.0 | 1.1–2.1 | 0.6–2.5 | 0.6–2.5 | 1.5–2.5 |” — Table 1, Change in real GDP, median row, 2027 column · source ↗2025-06-181.8
    Readout
    Low
    1.80%
    High
    1.80%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2027 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    EIA2027 full year“| U.S. GDP <br>(percentage change) | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 |” — Overview table, U.S. GDP row · source ↗2026-07-072.3
    Readout
    Low
    2.30%
    High
    2.30%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2025 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Single reported figureGlobal
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Morgan Stanley2025 full year“Morgan Stanley Research forecasts the global economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.9% in 2025 (2.5% 4Q/4Q) and 2.8% in 2026, down from 3.3% (3.5% 4Q/4Q) in 2024.” — Global Economic Outlook section · source ↗2025-05-282.9%
    Readout
    Low
    2.90%
    High
    2.90%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2025 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    1 institution
    Single reported figureGlobal
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Morgan Stanley2025 Q4“Morgan Stanley Research forecasts the global economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.9% in 2025 (2.5% 4Q/4Q) and 2.8% in 2026, down from 3.3% (3.5% 4Q/4Q) in 2024.” — Global Economic Outlook section · source ↗2025-05-282.5%
    Readout
    Low
    2.50%
    High
    2.50%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Single reported figureGlobal
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Morgan Stanley2026 full year“Morgan Stanley Research forecasts the global economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.9% in 2025 (2.5% 4Q/4Q) and 2.8% in 2026, down from 3.3% (3.5% 4Q/4Q) in 2024.” — Global Economic Outlook section · source ↗2025-05-282.8%
    Readout
    Low
    2.80%
    High
    2.80%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.