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    How the forecasts held up.

    Each projection is compared against the outturn for the same metric, geography, target period and measurement basis. A forecast published after its target period began is not counted, and a period with no outturn yet is simply absent.

    10 scored forecasts2 resolved periods93 awaiting an outturnCompared against the earliest recorded outturn

    Earliest recordedLatest

    Mean absolute error

    3 institutions / %
    Institution × forecast horizonDarker is a larger miss
    Mean absolute error by institution and forecast horizon0-3 months3-6 months6-12 monthsFed— Federal Reserve · 3-6 months · mean absolute error 0.20 over 4 forecasts 0.20 Federal Reserve · 6-12 months · mean absolute error 0.16 over 3 forecasts 0.16Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs · 0-3 months · mean absolute error 0.39 over 1 forecast 0.39— Goldman Sachs · 6-12 months · mean absolute error 0.29 over 1 forecast 0.29Morgan Stanley— Morgan Stanley · 3-6 months · mean absolute error 0.99 over 1 forecast 0.99—

    Every scored forecast

    Largest miss first
    InstitutionMetricPeriodForecastActualErrorHorizon
    Morgan StanleyReal GDP growthQ4/Q42025 Q41.0%1.99%−0.99%3-6 months
    FedReal GDP growthQ4/Q42025 Q41.4%1.99%−0.59%3-6 months
    Goldman SachsReal GDP growthAnnual growth2025 full year2.5%2.11%+0.39%0-3 months
    FedReal GDP growthQ4/Q42025 Q41.7%1.99%−0.29%6-12 months
    Goldman SachsReal GDP growthQ4/Q42025 Q41.7%1.99%−0.29%6-12 months
    FedHeadline PCE inflationQ4/Q42025 Q43.0%2.80%+0.20%3-6 months
    FedHeadline PCE inflationQ4/Q42025 Q42.7%2.80%−0.10%6-12 months
    FedUnemployment rateQ4 average2025 Q44.4%4.50%−0.10%6-12 months
    FedUnemployment rateQ4 average2025 Q44.5%4.50%0.00%3-6 months
    FedUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q44.54.50%0.00%3-6 months

    Error is the forecast minus the outturn. Actuals link to the underlying FRED series. Statistical agencies revise their own figures, so an outturn is dated from when this index first recorded it — for a period that resolved before ingestion began, the earliest recorded value and the latest are the same number.