Federal Reserve
The U.S. central bank. Its quarterly projection materials summarize participating policymakers’ median outlooks.
Government · United StatesWashington, D.C.4 reports19 figuresInstitution website ↗
What they changed their mind about
3 revisions| Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|
| 2025 Q4“| Federal funds rate | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.9–4.4 | 3.1–3.9 | 2.9–3.6 | 2.6–3.6 | 3.6–4.4 | 2.6–4.1 | 2.6–3.9 | 2.5–3.9 |” — Table 1, Federal funds rate, median row, 2025 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 3.9 |
| 2026 Q4“| Federal funds rate | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.9–4.4 | 3.1–3.9 | 2.9–3.6 | 2.6–3.6 | 3.6–4.4 | 2.6–4.1 | 2.6–3.9 | 2.5–3.9 |” — Table 1, Federal funds rate, median row, 2026 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 3.6 |
| 2027 Q4“| Federal funds rate | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.9–4.4 | 3.1–3.9 | 2.9–3.6 | 2.6–3.6 | 3.6–4.4 | 2.6–4.1 | 2.6–3.9 | 2.5–3.9 |” — Table 1, Federal funds rate, median row, 2027 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 3.4 |
| Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|
| 2025 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 | | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 | |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2025 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 3.1 |
| 2026 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 | | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 | |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2026 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 2.4 |
| 2027 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 | | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 | |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2027 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 2.1 |
| Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|
| 2025 Q4“PCE inflation 3.0” — Table 1 · 2025 median · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 3.0% |
| 2026 Q4“| PCE inflation | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8–3.2 | 2.3–2.6 | 2.0–2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5–3.3 | 2.1–3.1 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0 |” — Table 1, PCE inflation, median row, 2026 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 2.4 |
| 2027 Q4“| PCE inflation | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8–3.2 | 2.3–2.6 | 2.0–2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5–3.3 | 2.1–3.1 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0 |” — Table 1, PCE inflation, median row, 2027 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 2.1 |
| 2025 Q4“PCE inflation 2.7” — Table 1, page 2 · 2025 median · source ↗ | 2025-03-19 | 2.7% |
| Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|
| 2025 Q4“Change in real GDP 1.4” — Table 1 · 2025 median · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 1.4% |
| 2026 Q4“| Change in real GDP | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2–1.5 | 1.5–1.8 | 1.7–2.0 | 1.7–2.0 | 1.1–2.1 | 0.6–2.5 | 0.6–2.5 | 1.5–2.5 |” — Table 1, Change in real GDP, median row, 2026 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 1.6 |
| 2027 Q4“| Change in real GDP | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2–1.5 | 1.5–1.8 | 1.7–2.0 | 1.7–2.0 | 1.1–2.1 | 0.6–2.5 | 0.6–2.5 | 1.5–2.5 |” — Table 1, Change in real GDP, median row, 2027 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 1.8 |
| 2025 Q4“Change in real GDP 1.7” — Table 1, page 2 · 2025 median · source ↗ | 2025-03-19 | 1.7% |
| Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|
| 2025 Q4“Unemployment rate 4.5” — Table 1 · 2025 median · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 4.5% |
| 2025 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2025 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 4.5 |
| 2026 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2026 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 4.5 |
| 2027 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2027 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 4.4 |
| 2025 Q4“Unemployment rate 4.4” — Table 1, page 2 · 2025 median · source ↗ | 2025-03-19 | 4.4% |