National Association for Business Economics

Surveys a panel of professional forecasters each quarter and publishes the consensus as the NABE Outlook.

Professional association · United StatesWashington, D.C.2 reports8 figuresInstitution website ↗

U.S. core PCE inflation

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PeriodReportedForecast
2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-283.2%
2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-263.2%

U.S. headline PCE inflation

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PeriodReportedForecast
2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-283.6%
2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-263.6%

U.S. real GDP growth

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PeriodReportedForecast
2026 full year““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-282%
2026 full year““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-262%

U.S. unemployment rate

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PeriodReportedForecast
2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-284.4%
2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-264.4%