National Association for Business Economics
Surveys a panel of professional forecasters each quarter and publishes the consensus as the NABE Outlook.
Professional association · United StatesWashington, D.C.8 reports33 figuresInstitution website ↗
| Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| December 2026 FOMC“Following the Federal Open Market Committee's September rate hike, panelists now expect one more 25-basis-point increase before year-end, to a midpoint of 4.125%, and no rate cuts through 2027.” — Survey Highlights · source ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 4.125% |
| Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 full year““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 rose to **2.1%**, up from 2.0% in the June 2026 survey, supported by business investment that is now expected to grow **6.7%**.” — Survey Highlights · source ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 6.7% |
| Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q4“Core personal consumption expenditures inflation is expected to reach **3.3%** by the fourth quarter of 2026, and the 2027 core inflation forecast was revised higher for a second consecutive survey to 2.4%.” — Survey Highlights · source ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 3.3% |
| 2027 full year“Core personal consumption expenditures inflation is expected to reach **3.3%** by the fourth quarter of 2026, and the 2027 core inflation forecast was revised higher for a second consecutive survey to 2.4%.” — Survey Highlights · source ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 2.4% |
| 2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-10-10 | 3.2% |
| 2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 3.2% |
| 2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 3.2% |
| 2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary, first quoted paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 3.2% |
| 2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-02 | 3.2% |
| 2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 3.2% |
| 2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-26 | 3.2% |
| Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-10-10 | 3.6% |
| 2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 3.6% |
| 2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 3.6% |
| 2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary, first quoted paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 3.6% |
| 2026 Q4“The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-02 | 3.6% |
| 2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 3.6% |
| 2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-26 | 3.6% |
| Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 full year““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 rose to **2.1%**, up from 2.0% in the June 2026 survey, supported by business investment that is now expected to grow **6.7%**.” — Survey Highlights · source ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 2.1% |
| 2026 full year““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-10-10 | 2% |
| 2026 full year““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 2% |
| 2026 full year““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 2% |
| 2026 full year““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary, first quoted paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 2% |
| 2026 full year“The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-02 | 2% |
| 2026 full year““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 2% |
| 2026 full year““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-26 | 2% |
| Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 full year““The labor market continues to outperform expectations, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to **71,000**, and lowered their unemployment rate forecast to **4.2%**,” added **NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE**, senior economist, KPMG.” — Survey Highlights · source ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 4.2% |
| 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added **NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG**.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-10-10 | 4.4% |
| 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added **NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG**.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 4.4% |
| 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 4.4% |
| 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added **NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG**.” — Summary, second quoted paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 4.4% |
| 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 4.4% |
| 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-26 | 4.4% |