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    Fannie Mae Economic and Housing Forecast

    Extracted from https://www.fanniemae.com/media/document/pdf/economic-forecast-092026

    Fannie MaeOpen source document ↗

    Published2026-09-11
    Extracted figures64
    Source classInstitution forecast
    Update cadenceMonthly
    Available formatPDF

    Reported figures

    Each with its source sentence
    MetricPeriodReportedForecast
    Real GDP growth2026 Q3“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-112.4
    Real GDP growth2026 Q4“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-112.1
    Real GDP growth2026 full year“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.0
    Real GDP growth2027 Q1“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗2026-09-112.3
    Real GDP growth2027 Q2“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗2026-09-112.6
    Real GDP growth2027 Q3“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-112.5
    Real GDP growth2027 Q4“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-112.5
    Real GDP growth2027 full year“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Table, Gross Domestic Product row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.5
    Unemployment rate2026 Q3“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-114.1
    Unemployment rate2026 Q4“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-114.2
    Unemployment rate2026 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.2
    Unemployment rate2027 Q1“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗2026-09-114.2
    Unemployment rate2027 Q2“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗2026-09-114.2
    Unemployment rate2027 Q3“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-114.3
    Unemployment rate2027 Q4“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-114.3
    Unemployment rate2027 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.2
    Headline PCE inflation2026 full year“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 |” — Table, PCE Chain Price Index row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-113.8
    Headline PCE inflation2027 full year“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 |” — Table, PCE Chain Price Index row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.0
    Headline CPI inflation2026 Q3“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-113.4
    Headline CPI inflation2026 Q4“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-113.4
    Headline CPI inflation2026 full year“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-113.4
    Headline CPI inflation2027 Q1“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗2026-09-112.9
    Headline CPI inflation2027 Q2“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗2026-09-111.8
    Headline CPI inflation2027 Q3“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-111.8
    Headline CPI inflation2027 Q4“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-111.7
    Headline CPI inflation2027 full year“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 |” — Table, Consumer Price Index row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-111.7
    Core CPI inflation2026 full year“| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 |” — Table, Core Consumer Price Index row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.6
    Core CPI inflation2027 full year“| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 |” — Table, Core Consumer Price Index row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.5
    Core PCE inflation2026 full year“| Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 |” — Table, Core PCE Chain Price Index row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-113.4
    Core PCE inflation2027 full year“| Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 |” — Table, Core PCE Chain Price Index row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.3
    Payroll growth2026 Q3“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-1178
    Payroll growth2026 Q4“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-1165
    Payroll growth2026 full year“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-110.9
    Payroll growth2027 Q1“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗2026-09-1162
    Payroll growth2027 Q2“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗2026-09-1168
    Payroll growth2027 Q3“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-1168
    Payroll growth2027 Q4“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-1172
    Payroll growth2027 full year“| Employment, Total Nonfarm | 20 | 34 | 23 | -39 | 73 | 81 | 78 | 65 | 62 | 68 | 72 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |” — Table, Employment, Total Nonfarm row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-110.8
    Federal funds rate2026 Q3“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 |” — Table, Federal Funds Rate row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-113.7
    Federal funds rate2026 Q4“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 |” — Table, Federal Funds Rate row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-114.0
    Federal funds rate2026 full year“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 |” — Table, Federal Funds Rate row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-113.7
    Federal funds rate2027 full year“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 |” — Table, Federal Funds Rate row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.1
    10-year Treasury yield2026 Q3“| 10-Year Treasury Note Yield | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.9 |” — Table, 10-Year Treasury Note Yield row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-114.7
    10-year Treasury yield2026 Q4“| 10-Year Treasury Note Yield | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.9 |” — Table, 10-Year Treasury Note Yield row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-114.8
    10-year Treasury yield2026 full year“| 10-Year Treasury Note Yield | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.9 |” — Table, 10-Year Treasury Note Yield row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.5
    10-year Treasury yield2027 full year“| 10-Year Treasury Note Yield | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.9 |” — Table, 10-Year Treasury Note Yield row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.9
    Personal consumption2026 Q3“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-112.3
    Personal consumption2026 Q4“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-112.1
    Personal consumption2026 full year“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.1
    Personal consumption2027 Q1“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗2026-09-112.0
    Personal consumption2027 Q2“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗2026-09-112.1
    Personal consumption2027 Q3“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-112.2
    Personal consumption2027 Q4“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-112.3
    Personal consumption2027 full year“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Table, Personal Consumption Expenditures row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.2
    Business investment2026 full year“| Business Fixed Investment | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 4.6 |” — Table, Business Fixed Investment row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-118.2
    Business investment2027 full year“| Business Fixed Investment | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 4.6 |” — Table, Business Fixed Investment row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.6
    Residential investment2026 Q3“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-11-5.8
    Residential investment2026 Q4“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-110.2
    Residential investment2026 full year“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-11-3.1
    Residential investment2027 Q1“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗2026-09-115.2
    Residential investment2027 Q2“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗2026-09-112.4
    Residential investment2027 Q3“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-114.5
    Residential investment2027 Q4“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-114.0
    Residential investment2027 full year“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | -3.8 | -3.1 | 4.0 |” — Table, Residential Fixed Investment row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.0