Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

A regional Reserve Bank publishing the quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters and its historical data files.

Government · United StatesPhiladelphia, Pennsylvania3 reports78 figuresInstitution website ↗

What they changed their mind about

6 revisions

2026-08-14U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized~~2.0 percent annualized growth~~→2.3 percent

2026-08-14U.S. real GDP growth 2027 Q2 · Quarterly annualized~~1.8 percent growth~~→2.1

2026-08-14U.S. unemployment rate 2026 Q4 · Quarterly average~~4.5%~~→4.3

2026-08-14U.S. core CPI inflation 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized~~2.7%~~→2.8

2026-08-14U.S. nonfarm payroll growth 2026 Q4 · Quarterly average monthly change~~58.4K/mo~~→66.4

2026-08-14Probability of negative U.S. GDP growth 2026 Q4 · Survey mean probability~~24.5%~~→20.0

Probability of negative U.S. GDP growth

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q3“The forecasters have reduced their estimate of the risk of a downturn in real GDP this quarter to 13.3 percent, compared with the estimate of 25.1 percent in the previous survey.” — Risk of a Negative Quarter paragraph · source ↗	2026-08-14	13.3 percent
2026 Q4“\| 2026:Q4 \| 24.5 \| 20.0 \|” — Risk of a Negative Quarter table, 2026:Q4 row, New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	20.0
2027 Q1“\| 2027:Q1 \| 25.7 \| 21.5 \|” — Risk of a Negative Quarter table, 2027:Q1 row, New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	21.5
2027 Q2“\| 2027:Q2 \| 23.0 \| 22.0 \|” — Risk of a Negative Quarter table, 2027:Q2 row, New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	22.0
2027 Q3“\| 2027:Q3 \| N.A. \| 20.8 \|” — Risk of a Negative Quarter table, 2027:Q3 row, New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	20.8
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Risk of a Negative Quarter (%) \| New 24.5” — Risk of a Negative Quarter · 2026:Q4 · source ↗	2026-05-15	24.5%

U.S. core CPI inflation

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q3“They also predict that core CPI inflation over the current quarter will be lower at an annual rate of 2.7 percent, down from the previous estimate of 2.9 percent.” — Inflation outlook paragraph · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.7 percent
2026 Q4“Measured on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis, headline CPI and core CPI inflation in 2026 are expected to average 3.6 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, little changed from the previous estimates.” — Inflation outlook paragraph · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.8 percent
2026 Q4“\| 2026:Q4 \| 2.5 \| 2.5 \| 2.7 \| 2.8 \| 2.4 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \|” — Inflation table, 2026:Q4 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.8
2027 Q1“\| 2027:Q1 \| 2.5 \| 2.5 \| 2.7 \| 2.8 \| 2.5 \| 2.5 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \|” — Inflation table, 2027:Q1 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.8
2027 Q2“\| 2027:Q2 \| 2.4 \| 2.3 \| 2.5 \| 2.5 \| 2.3 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \|” — Inflation table, 2027:Q2 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.5
2027 Q3“\| 2027:Q3 \| N.A. \| 2.4 \| N.A. \| 2.5 \| N.A. \| 2.3 \| N.A. \| 2.3 \|” — Inflation table, 2027:Q3 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.5
2027 Q4“\| 2027 \| 2.5 \| 2.3 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \| 2.3 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \|” — Inflation table, 2027 Q4/Q4 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.6
2028 Q4“\| 2028 \| 2.4 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \| 2.2 \| 2.1 \| 2.1 \| 2.2 \|” — Inflation table, 2028 Q4/Q4 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.4
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Core CPI \| Current 2.7” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗	2026-05-15	2.7%

U.S. core PCE inflation

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 3.0 \| 2.3 \| 2.9 \| 2.7 \| 3.0 \| 2.3 \| 2.9 \| 2.7 \|” — Inflation projections table, 2026 Q3 row · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.7
2026 Q4“\| 2026 \| 3.5 \| 3.6 \| 2.9 \| 2.8 \| 3.6 \| 3.6 \| 3.3 \| 3.3 \|” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2026 row, Core PCE Current column · source ↗	2026-08-14	3.3
2027 Q4“\| 2027 \| 2.5 \| 2.3 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \| 2.3 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \|” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2027 row, Core PCE Current column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.4
2028 Q4“\| 2028 \| 2.4 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \| 2.2 \| 2.1 \| 2.1 \| 2.2 \|” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2028 row, Core PCE Current column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.2
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Core PCE \| Current 2.6” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗	2026-05-15	2.6%

U.S. headline CPI inflation

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q3“The forecasters expect current-quarter headline CPI inflation will average 2.3 percent at an annual rate, down from their prediction of 3.0 percent in the previous survey.” — Inflation outlook paragraph · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.3 percent
2026 Q4“Measured on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis, headline CPI and core CPI inflation in 2026 are expected to average 3.6 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, little changed from the previous estimates.” — Inflation outlook paragraph · source ↗	2026-08-14	3.6 percent
2026 Q4“\| 2026:Q4 \| 2.5 \| 2.5 \| 2.7 \| 2.8 \| 2.4 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \|” — Inflation table, 2026:Q4 row, Current Headline CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.5
2026 full year“Over the next 10 years, 2026 to 2035, the forecasters predict headline CPI inflation will be at an annual-average rate of 2.30 percent.” — Long-run inflation paragraph · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.30 percent
2027 Q1“\| 2027:Q1 \| 2.5 \| 2.5 \| 2.7 \| 2.8 \| 2.5 \| 2.5 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \|” — Inflation table, 2027:Q1 row, Current Headline CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.5
2027 Q2“\| 2027:Q2 \| 2.4 \| 2.3 \| 2.5 \| 2.5 \| 2.3 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \|” — Inflation table, 2027:Q2 row, Current Headline CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.3
2027 Q3“\| 2027:Q3 \| N.A. \| 2.4 \| N.A. \| 2.5 \| N.A. \| 2.3 \| N.A. \| 2.3 \|” — Inflation table, 2027:Q3 row, Current Headline CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.4
2027 Q4“\| 2027 \| 2.5 \| 2.3 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \| 2.3 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \|” — Inflation table, 2027 Q4/Q4 row, Current Headline CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.3
2028 Q4“\| 2028 \| 2.4 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \| 2.2 \| 2.1 \| 2.1 \| 2.2 \|” — Inflation table, 2028 Q4/Q4 row, Current Headline CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.3
2026 full year“Year-over-year CPI inflation is now expected to be 3.6 percent in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 2.8 percent in the December 2025 survey.” — Page 1, CPI paragraph · source ↗	2026-06-24	3.6 percent
2027 full year“The forecasters predict CPI inflation will then fall to 2.5 percent in 2027.” — Page 1, CPI paragraph · source ↗	2026-06-24	2.5 percent
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Headline CPI \| Current 2.5” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗	2026-05-15	2.5%

U.S. headline PCE inflation

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 3.0 \| 2.3 \| 2.9 \| 2.7 \| 3.0 \| 2.3 \| 2.9 \| 2.7 \|” — Inflation projections table, 2026 Q3 row · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.3
2026 Q4“\| 2026 \| 3.5 \| 3.6 \| 2.9 \| 2.8 \| 3.6 \| 3.6 \| 3.3 \| 3.3 \|” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2026 row, Headline PCE Current column · source ↗	2026-08-14	3.6
2026 full year“The corresponding estimate for 10-year annual-average PCE inflation is 2.20 percent.” — Long-run inflation paragraph · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.20 percent
2027 Q4“\| 2027 \| 2.5 \| 2.3 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \| 2.3 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \|” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2027 row, Headline PCE Current column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.3
2028 Q4“\| 2028 \| 2.4 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \| 2.2 \| 2.1 \| 2.1 \| 2.2 \|” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2028 row, Headline PCE Current column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.1
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Headline PCE \| Current 2.4” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗	2026-05-15	2.4%

U.S. housing starts

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q2“Total Private Housing Starts 1.390 1.350 1.345 1.385 1.350” — Page 4, Livingston Survey Summary Table, levels of variables · source ↗	2026-06-24	1.390
2026 Q4“Total Private Housing Starts 1.390 1.350 1.345 1.385 1.350” — Page 4, Livingston Survey Summary Table, levels of variables · source ↗	2026-06-24	1.350
2027 Q2“Total Private Housing Starts 1.390 1.350 1.345 1.385 1.350” — Page 4, Livingston Survey Summary Table, levels of variables · source ↗	2026-06-24	1.345

U.S. industrial production growth

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q2“Industrial Production 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.2” — Page 4, Livingston Survey Summary Table, monthly indicators row · source ↗	2026-06-24	1.0
2026 Q4“Industrial Production 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.2” — Page 4, Livingston Survey Summary Table, monthly indicators row · source ↗	2026-06-24	0.8
2027 Q2“Industrial Production 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.2” — Page 4, Livingston Survey Summary Table, monthly indicators row · source ↗	2026-06-24	1.2

U.S. nonfarm payroll growth

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 2.2 \| 2.5 \| 4.5 \| 4.2 \| 61.2 \| 45.6 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2026:Q3 row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	45.6
2026 Q4“\| 2026:Q4 \| 1.6 \| 2.3 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 58.4 \| 66.4 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2026:Q4 row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	66.4
2026 full year“\| 2026 \| 2.2 \| 2.1 \| 4.4 \| 4.3 \| 34.6 \| 40.7 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2026 annual row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	40.7
2027 Q1“\| 2027:Q1 \| 1.9 \| 2.1 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 64.0 \| 94.9 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q1 row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	94.9
2027 Q2“\| 2027:Q2 \| 1.9 \| 2.1 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 97.3 \| 80.4 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q2 row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	80.4
2027 Q3“\| 2027:Q3 \| N.A. \| 2.2 \| N.A. \| 4.3 \| N.A. \| 56.2 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q3 row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	56.2
2027 full year“\| 2027 \| 1.9 \| 2.2 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 64.4 \| 75.4 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027 annual row, Payrolls New column · source ↗	2026-08-14	75.4
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Payrolls (000s/month) \| New 58.4” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗	2026-05-15	58.4K/mo

U.S. real GDP growth

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q3“The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.5 percent this quarter and 2.3 percent next quarter, up from the predictions of 2.2 percent and 1.6 percent in the last survey.” — Outlook paragraph · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.5 percent
2026 Q4“The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.5 percent this quarter and 2.3 percent next quarter, up from the predictions of 2.2 percent and 1.6 percent in the last survey.” — Outlook paragraph · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.3 percent
2026 full year“\| 2026 \| 2.2 \| 2.1 \| 4.4 \| 4.3 \| 34.6 \| 40.7 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2026 annual row, New Real GDP column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.1
2027 Q1“\| 2027:Q1 \| 1.9 \| 2.1 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 64.0 \| 94.9 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q1 row, New Real GDP column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.1
2027 Q2“\| 2027:Q2 \| 1.9 \| 2.1 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 97.3 \| 80.4 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q2 row, New Real GDP column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.1
2027 Q3“\| 2027:Q3 \| N.A. \| 2.2 \| N.A. \| 4.3 \| N.A. \| 56.2 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q3 row, New Real GDP column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.2
2027 full year“\| 2027 \| 1.9 \| 2.2 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 64.4 \| 75.4 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027 annual row, New Real GDP column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.2
2028 full year“\| 2028 \| 2.2 \| 2.1 \| 4.4 \| 4.2 \| N.A. \| N.A. \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2028 annual row, New Real GDP column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.1
2029 full year“\| 2029 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 4.4 \| 4.3 \| N.A. \| N.A. \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2029 annual row, New Real GDP column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.4
2026 Q2“The 17 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict steady output growth for 2026. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, expect 2.0 percent annualized growth in real GDP during the first and second half of 2026.” — Page 1, opening paragraph · source ↗	2026-06-24	2.0 percent annualized growth
2026 Q4“The 17 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict steady output growth for 2026. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, expect 2.0 percent annualized growth in real GDP during the first and second half of 2026.” — Page 1, opening paragraph · source ↗	2026-06-24	2.0 percent annualized growth
2027 Q2“The forecasters predict that real GDP will reach an annual rate of 1.8 percent growth in the first half of 2027.” — Page 1, opening paragraph · source ↗	2026-06-24	1.8 percent growth
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Real GDP (%) \| New 1.6” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗	2026-05-15	1.6%

U.S. total vehicle sales

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q2“Automobile Sales (incl. foreign) 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7” — Page 4, Livingston Survey Summary Table, levels of variables · source ↗	2026-06-24	2.6
2026 Q4“Automobile Sales (incl. foreign) 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7” — Page 4, Livingston Survey Summary Table, levels of variables · source ↗	2026-06-24	2.7
2027 Q2“Automobile Sales (incl. foreign) 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7” — Page 4, Livingston Survey Summary Table, levels of variables · source ↗	2026-06-24	2.7

U.S. unemployment rate

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q3“The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will range from 4.2 percent to 4.3 percent from this quarter through the second quarter of 2027.” — Unemployment outlook paragraph · source ↗	2026-08-14	4.2 percent
2026 Q4“\| 2026:Q4 \| 1.6 \| 2.3 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 58.4 \| 66.4 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2026:Q4 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗	2026-08-14	4.3
2026 full year“\| 2026 \| 2.2 \| 2.1 \| 4.4 \| 4.3 \| 34.6 \| 40.7 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2026 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗	2026-08-14	4.3
2027 Q1“\| 2027:Q1 \| 1.9 \| 2.1 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 64.0 \| 94.9 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q1 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗	2026-08-14	4.3
2027 Q2“\| 2027:Q2 \| 1.9 \| 2.1 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 97.3 \| 80.4 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q2 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗	2026-08-14	4.3
2027 Q3“\| 2027:Q3 \| N.A. \| 2.2 \| N.A. \| 4.3 \| N.A. \| 56.2 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q3 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗	2026-08-14	4.3
2027 full year“\| 2027 \| 1.9 \| 2.2 \| 4.5 \| 4.3 \| 64.4 \| 75.4 \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2027 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗	2026-08-14	4.3
2028 full year“\| 2028 \| 2.2 \| 2.1 \| 4.4 \| 4.2 \| N.A. \| N.A. \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2028 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗	2026-08-14	4.2
2029 full year“\| 2029 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 4.4 \| 4.3 \| N.A. \| N.A. \|” — Median Forecasts table, 2029 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗	2026-08-14	4.3
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Unemployment Rate (%) \| New 4.5” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗	2026-05-15	4.5%