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Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

A regional Reserve Bank publishing the quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters and its historical data files.

Government · United StatesPhiladelphia, Pennsylvania1 reports8 figuresInstitution website ↗

Probability of negative U.S. GDP growth

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Risk of a Negative Quarter (%) \| New 24.5” — Risk of a Negative Quarter · 2026:Q4 · source ↗	2026-05-15	24.5%

U.S. core CPI inflation

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Core CPI \| Current 2.7” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗	2026-05-15	2.7%

U.S. core PCE inflation

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Core PCE \| Current 2.6” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗	2026-05-15	2.6%

U.S. headline CPI inflation

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Headline CPI \| Current 2.5” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗	2026-05-15	2.5%

U.S. headline PCE inflation

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Headline PCE \| Current 2.4” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗	2026-05-15	2.4%

U.S. nonfarm payroll growth

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Payrolls (000s/month) \| New 58.4” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗	2026-05-15	58.4K/mo

U.S. real GDP growth

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Real GDP (%) \| New 1.6” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗	2026-05-15	1.6%

U.S. unemployment rate

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Period	Reported	Forecast
2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Unemployment Rate (%) \| New 4.5” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗	2026-05-15	4.5%