Survey of Professional Forecasters
Extracted from https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q3-2026
Published2026-08-14
Extracted figures43
Source classConsensus survey
Update cadenceQuarterly
Available formatHTML
| Metric | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 2026 Q3“The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.5 percent this quarter and 2.3 percent next quarter, up from the predictions of 2.2 percent and 1.6 percent in the last survey.” — Outlook paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.5 percent |
| Real GDP growth | 2026 Q4“The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.5 percent this quarter and 2.3 percent next quarter, up from the predictions of 2.2 percent and 1.6 percent in the last survey.” — Outlook paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.3 percent |
| Real GDP growth | 2026 full year“| 2026 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 34.6 | 40.7 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2026 annual row, New Real GDP column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.1 |
| Real GDP growth | 2027 Q1“| 2027:Q1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 64.0 | 94.9 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q1 row, New Real GDP column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.1 |
| Real GDP growth | 2027 Q2“| 2027:Q2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 97.3 | 80.4 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q2 row, New Real GDP column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.1 |
| Real GDP growth | 2027 Q3“| 2027:Q3 | N.A. | 2.2 | N.A. | 4.3 | N.A. | 56.2 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q3 row, New Real GDP column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.2 |
| Real GDP growth | 2027 full year“| 2027 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 64.4 | 75.4 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027 annual row, New Real GDP column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.2 |
| Real GDP growth | 2028 full year“| 2028 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 | N.A. | N.A. |” — Median Forecasts table, 2028 annual row, New Real GDP column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.1 |
| Real GDP growth | 2029 full year“| 2029 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | N.A. | N.A. |” — Median Forecasts table, 2029 annual row, New Real GDP column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.4 |
| Unemployment rate | 2026 Q3“The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will range from 4.2 percent to 4.3 percent from this quarter through the second quarter of 2027.” — Unemployment outlook paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.2 percent |
| Unemployment rate | 2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 58.4 | 66.4 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2026:Q4 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
| Unemployment rate | 2026 full year“| 2026 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 34.6 | 40.7 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2026 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
| Unemployment rate | 2027 Q1“| 2027:Q1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 64.0 | 94.9 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q1 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
| Unemployment rate | 2027 Q2“| 2027:Q2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 97.3 | 80.4 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q2 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
| Unemployment rate | 2027 Q3“| 2027:Q3 | N.A. | 2.2 | N.A. | 4.3 | N.A. | 56.2 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q3 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
| Unemployment rate | 2027 full year“| 2027 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 64.4 | 75.4 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
| Unemployment rate | 2028 full year“| 2028 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 | N.A. | N.A. |” — Median Forecasts table, 2028 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.2 |
| Unemployment rate | 2029 full year“| 2029 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | N.A. | N.A. |” — Median Forecasts table, 2029 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
| Headline PCE inflation | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 |” — Inflation projections table, 2026 Q3 row · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.3 |
| Headline PCE inflation | 2026 full year“The corresponding estimate for 10-year annual-average PCE inflation is 2.20 percent.” — Long-run inflation paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.20 percent |
| Headline CPI inflation | 2026 Q3“The forecasters expect current-quarter headline CPI inflation will average 2.3 percent at an annual rate, down from their prediction of 3.0 percent in the previous survey.” — Inflation outlook paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.3 percent |
| Headline CPI inflation | 2026 Q4“Measured on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis, headline CPI and core CPI inflation in 2026 are expected to average 3.6 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, little changed from the previous estimates.” — Inflation outlook paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 3.6 percent |
| Headline CPI inflation | 2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |” — Inflation table, 2026:Q4 row, Current Headline CPI column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.5 |
| Headline CPI inflation | 2026 full year“Over the next 10 years, 2026 to 2035, the forecasters predict headline CPI inflation will be at an annual-average rate of 2.30 percent.” — Long-run inflation paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.30 percent |
| Headline CPI inflation | 2027 Q1“| 2027:Q1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 |” — Inflation table, 2027:Q1 row, Current Headline CPI column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.5 |
| Headline CPI inflation | 2027 Q2“| 2027:Q2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |” — Inflation table, 2027:Q2 row, Current Headline CPI column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.3 |
| Headline CPI inflation | 2027 Q3“| 2027:Q3 | N.A. | 2.4 | N.A. | 2.5 | N.A. | 2.3 | N.A. | 2.3 |” — Inflation table, 2027:Q3 row, Current Headline CPI column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.4 |
| Headline CPI inflation | 2027 Q4“| 2027 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |” — Inflation table, 2027 Q4/Q4 row, Current Headline CPI column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.3 |
| Headline CPI inflation | 2028 Q4“| 2028 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Inflation table, 2028 Q4/Q4 row, Current Headline CPI column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.3 |
| Core CPI inflation | 2026 Q3“They also predict that core CPI inflation over the current quarter will be lower at an annual rate of 2.7 percent, down from the previous estimate of 2.9 percent.” — Inflation outlook paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.7 percent |
| Core CPI inflation | 2026 Q4“Measured on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis, headline CPI and core CPI inflation in 2026 are expected to average 3.6 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, little changed from the previous estimates.” — Inflation outlook paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.8 percent |
| Core CPI inflation | 2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |” — Inflation table, 2026:Q4 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.8 |
| Core CPI inflation | 2027 Q1“| 2027:Q1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 |” — Inflation table, 2027:Q1 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.8 |
| Core CPI inflation | 2027 Q2“| 2027:Q2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |” — Inflation table, 2027:Q2 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.5 |
| Core CPI inflation | 2027 Q3“| 2027:Q3 | N.A. | 2.4 | N.A. | 2.5 | N.A. | 2.3 | N.A. | 2.3 |” — Inflation table, 2027:Q3 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.5 |
| Core CPI inflation | 2027 Q4“| 2027 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |” — Inflation table, 2027 Q4/Q4 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.6 |
| Core CPI inflation | 2028 Q4“| 2028 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Inflation table, 2028 Q4/Q4 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.4 |
| Core PCE inflation | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 |” — Inflation projections table, 2026 Q3 row · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.7 |
| Negative-growth probability | 2026 Q3“The forecasters have reduced their estimate of the risk of a downturn in real GDP this quarter to 13.3 percent, compared with the estimate of 25.1 percent in the previous survey.” — Risk of a Negative Quarter paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 13.3 percent |
| Negative-growth probability | 2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 24.5 | 20.0 |” — Risk of a Negative Quarter table, 2026:Q4 row, New column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 20.0 |
| Negative-growth probability | 2027 Q1“| 2027:Q1 | 25.7 | 21.5 |” — Risk of a Negative Quarter table, 2027:Q1 row, New column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 21.5 |
| Negative-growth probability | 2027 Q2“| 2027:Q2 | 23.0 | 22.0 |” — Risk of a Negative Quarter table, 2027:Q2 row, New column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 22.0 |
| Negative-growth probability | 2027 Q3“| 2027:Q3 | N.A. | 20.8 |” — Risk of a Negative Quarter table, 2027:Q3 row, New column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 20.8 |