Know who called it, and who missed.
Every published projection from central banks, budget offices and bank research — traced to the sentence it came from, and tracked as it gets revised.
Latest revisionsFed 1.7%→1.4%/Fed 4.4%→4.5%/Fed 2.7%→3.0%
Institutions14
Figures103
Reports27
Metrics23
Revisions3
Sourced100%
%U.S. real GDP growth24 figures / 12 inst.%U.S. unemployment rate9 figures / 5 inst.%U.S. headline PCE inflation8 figures / 5 inst.%Federal funds rate7 figures / 5 inst.%U.S. core PCE inflation7 figures / 5 inst.%U.S. core CPI inflation5 figures / 5 inst.%U.S. headline CPI inflation5 figures / 5 inst.$/barrelBrent crude oil price4 figures / 2 inst.
Forecasts by report date4 institutions / Quarterly average
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo“Unemployment Rate | 2026 4Q | 4.2” | 2026-07-30 | 4.2% |
| Royal Bank of Canada“Unemployment rate (%) | 2026 Q4 | 4.3” | 2026-07-13 | 4.3% |
| Fannie Mae“Unemployment Rate | 26.4 | 4.4” | 2026-07-10 | 4.4% |
| Federal Reserve“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” | 2025-06-18 | 4.5 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.35%
- Spread
- +0.30%
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.50%
- Reporting
- 4
- Basis
- Quarterly average
Widest disagreement