Second Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters
Quarterly median forecasts and probability estimates from 33 professional forecasters.
Published2026-05-15
Extracted figures8
Source classConsensus survey
Update cadenceQuarterly
Available formatHTML + XLSX
| Metric | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Real GDP (%) | New 1.6” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 1.6% |
| Unemployment rate | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Unemployment Rate (%) | New 4.5” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 4.5% |
| Payroll growth | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Payrolls (000s/month) | New 58.4” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 58.4K/mo |
| Headline CPI inflation | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Headline CPI | Current 2.5” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 2.5% |
| Core CPI inflation | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Core CPI | Current 2.7” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 2.7% |
| Headline PCE inflation | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Headline PCE | Current 2.4” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 2.4% |
| Core PCE inflation | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Core PCE | Current 2.6” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 2.6% |
| Negative-growth probability | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Risk of a Negative Quarter (%) | New 24.5” — Risk of a Negative Quarter · 2026:Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 24.5% |