PLANETARYINSIGHTS

    Real GDP growth 2026 full year 2.1 2.4 ▲ EIAReal GDP growth 2027 full year 2.6 2.8 ▲ EIAHeadline PCE inflation 2026 Q4 3.95 3.94 ▼ Cleveland FedHeadline CPI inflation 2026 Q4 4.24 4.40 ▲ Cleveland FedCore CPI inflation 2026 Q4 3.02 3.40 ▲ Cleveland FedCore PCE inflation 2026 Q4 3.33 3.38 ▲ Cleveland Fed

    Second Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters

    Quarterly median forecasts and probability estimates from 33 professional forecasters.

    Federal Reserve Bank of PhiladelphiaOpen source document ↗

    Published2026-05-15
    Extracted figures8
    Source classConsensus survey
    Update cadenceQuarterly
    Available formatHTML + XLSX

    Reported figures

    Each with its source sentence
    MetricPeriodReportedForecast
    Real GDP growth2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Real GDP (%) | New 1.6” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗2026-05-151.6%
    Unemployment rate2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Unemployment Rate (%) | New 4.5” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗2026-05-154.5%
    Headline PCE inflation2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Headline PCE | Current 2.4” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗2026-05-152.4%
    Headline CPI inflation2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Headline CPI | Current 2.5” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗2026-05-152.5%
    Core CPI inflation2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Core CPI | Current 2.7” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗2026-05-152.7%
    Core PCE inflation2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Core PCE | Current 2.6” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗2026-05-152.6%
    Payroll growth2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Payrolls (000s/month) | New 58.4” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗2026-05-1558.4K/mo
    Negative-growth probability2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Risk of a Negative Quarter (%) | New 24.5” — Risk of a Negative Quarter · 2026:Q4 · source ↗2026-05-1524.5%