PLANETARYINSIGHTS

    Real GDP growth 2026 full year 2.1 2.4 ▲ EIAReal GDP growth 2027 full year 2.6 2.8 ▲ EIAHeadline PCE inflation 2026 Q4 3.95 3.94 ▼ Cleveland FedHeadline CPI inflation 2026 Q4 4.24 4.40 ▲ Cleveland FedCore CPI inflation 2026 Q4 3.02 3.40 ▲ Cleveland FedCore PCE inflation 2026 Q4 3.33 3.38 ▲ Cleveland Fed

    Federal Reserve Bank of New York

    A regional Reserve Bank publishing recurring household and market-participant expectation surveys.

    Government · United StatesNew York, New York55 reports65 figuresInstitution website ↗

    What they changed their mind about

    15 revisions
    2026-11-06U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q4 · Quarterly SAAR2.9→2.94
    2026-10-30U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q4 · Quarterly SAAR2.81→2.9
    2026-10-23U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q4 · Quarterly SAAR2.82→2.81
    2026-10-16U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q3 · Quarterly SAAR2.65→2.67
    2026-10-16U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q4 · Quarterly SAAR2.83→2.82
    2026-10-15U.S. one-year inflation expectation 1 year ahead · Median household expectation3.6 percent→3.9 percent
    2026-10-10U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q3 · Quarterly SAAR2.46→2.65
    2026-10-10U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q4 · Quarterly SAAR2.54→2.83
    2026-10-03U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q3 · Quarterly SAAR2.33→2.46
    2026-10-03U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q4 · Quarterly SAAR2.6→2.54
    2026-09-19U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q3 · Quarterly SAAR2.2599999999999998→2.33
    2026-09-19U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q4 · Quarterly SAAR2.5099999999999998→2.6
    2026-09-05U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q3 · Quarterly SAAR2.2200000000000002→2.2599999999999998
    2026-08-29U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q3 · Quarterly SAAR2.27→2.2200000000000002
    2026-08-26U.S. one-year inflation expectation 1 year ahead · Median household expectation3.5%→3.6 percent

    Federal funds rate

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    December 2026 FOMC“Federal Funds Target Rate or Range Modal Forecasts | Dec. 8-9 | Median 3.63%” — Question 2a · Page 6 · source ↗2026-07-083.63%

    U.S. headline CPI inflation

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — July Survey summary, first bullet · source ↗2026-08-303.6 percent

    U.S. home-price growth

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    1 year ahead“Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.5 percentage point to 3.5%” — Inflation · Home prices · source ↗2026-06-083.5%

    U.S. one-year inflation expectation

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations were unchanged at the one-, three-, and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.9 percent, 3.3 percent, and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Key findings, first bullet · source ↗2026-11-113.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations were unchanged at the one-, three-, and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.9 percent, 3.3 percent, and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Key findings, first bullet · source ↗2026-11-103.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations were unchanged at the one-, three-, and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.9 percent, 3.3 percent, and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Key findings, first bullet · source ↗2026-11-093.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Survey summary, first bullet · source ↗2026-11-083.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Key findings, first bullet · source ↗2026-11-073.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under the September Survey summary · source ↗2026-11-063.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet, first sentence · source ↗2026-11-053.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet, first sentence · source ↗2026-11-043.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under the September Survey headline · source ↗2026-11-033.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Summary bullet 1, one-year-ahead inflation expectation · source ↗2026-11-023.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey summary · source ↗2026-11-013.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey summary, one-year horizon · source ↗2026-10-313.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Bullet 1, first sentence · source ↗2026-10-303.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet, under the September Survey headline · source ↗2026-10-293.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey heading · source ↗2026-10-283.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Bullet 1, first paragraph under the September Survey headline · source ↗2026-10-273.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey summary · source ↗2026-10-263.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey heading · source ↗2026-10-253.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey heading · source ↗2026-10-243.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey summary · source ↗2026-10-233.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Summary bullet 1, one-year horizon · source ↗2026-10-223.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey headline · source ↗2026-10-213.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey heading · source ↗2026-10-203.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Summary bullets, first bullet · source ↗2026-10-193.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under the September Survey summary · source ↗2026-10-183.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet, one-year-ahead median inflation expectation · source ↗2026-10-173.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet, median one-year-horizon inflation expectation · source ↗2026-10-163.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Bullet 1, first bullet of September Survey summary · source ↗2026-10-153.9 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.” — Main survey results, inflation expectations · source ↗2026-09-223.6 percent
    1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.” — Main survey results, Inflation · source ↗2026-09-183.6 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.” — August Survey summary, first bullet · source ↗2026-09-143.6 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.” — Main survey results, inflation bullet · source ↗2026-09-133.6 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, July Survey bullet points · source ↗2026-09-063.6 percent
    1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, inflation expectations bullet · source ↗2026-09-053.6 percent
    1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, July Survey bullet points · source ↗2026-09-043.6 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main Survey Results, July Survey summary · source ↗2026-09-033.6 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, July Survey highlights · source ↗2026-09-013.6 percent
    1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — July Survey, first bullet · source ↗2026-08-273.6 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, inflation expectations bullet · source ↗2026-08-263.6 percent
    1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon” — Inflation · source ↗2026-06-083.5%

    U.S. personal consumption growth

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    1 year ahead“The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.1 ppt to 3.1 percent, the highest reading since February 2025. Median one-year-ahead nominal household spending growth expectations increased by 0.3 ppt to 5.5 percent, above the 12-month trailing average of 5.0 percent and the highest reading of the series since May 2023.” — Main survey results, summary bullet on household income and spending expectations · source ↗2026-10-145.5 percent

    U.S. real GDP growth

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    PeriodReportedForecast
    2026 Q4“46332 2026:Q4 2.94” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, forecast date 46332, reference quarter 2026:Q4, nowcast (current quarter) column; most recent nowcast row · source ↗2026-11-062.94
    2026 Q3“46325 2026:Q3 2.67 2.9” — Forecasts By Horizon, forecast date 46325 (latest), Nowcast (current quarter) column · source ↗2026-10-302.67
    2026 Q4“46325 2026:Q3 2.67 2.9” — Forecasts By Horizon, forecast date 46325 (latest), Forecast (next quarter) column · source ↗2026-10-302.9
    2026 Q3“46318 2026:Q3 2.67 2.81” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, forecast date 46318, Nowcast (current quarter) column · source ↗2026-10-232.67
    2026 Q4“46318 2026:Q3 2.67 2.81” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, forecast date 46318, Forecast (next quarter) column · source ↗2026-10-232.81
    2026 Q3“46311 2026:Q3 2.67 2.82” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, row for forecast date 46311, Nowcast (current quarter) column · source ↗2026-10-162.67
    2026 Q4“46311 2026:Q3 2.67 2.82” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, row for forecast date 46311, Forecast (next quarter) column · source ↗2026-10-162.82
    2026 Q3“46304 2026:Q3 2.65 2.83” — Forecasts By Horizon, most recent row (nowcast/current quarter) · source ↗2026-10-102.65
    2026 Q4“46304 2026:Q3 2.65 2.83” — Forecasts By Horizon, most recent row (forecast/next quarter) · source ↗2026-10-102.83
    2026 Q3“46297 2026:Q3 2.46 2.54” — Forecasts By Horizon, latest row (forecast date 46297), Nowcast (current quarter) · source ↗2026-10-032.46
    2026 Q4“46297 2026:Q3 2.46 2.54” — Forecasts By Horizon, latest row (forecast date 46297), Forecast (next quarter) · source ↗2026-10-032.54
    2026 Q3“46290 2026:Q3 2.33 2.6” — Forecasts By Horizon, latest row (46290), Nowcast (current quarter) · source ↗2026-09-262.33
    2026 Q4“46290 2026:Q3 2.33 2.6” — Forecasts By Horizon, latest row (46290), Forecast (next quarter) · source ↗2026-09-262.6
    2026 Q3“46283 2026:Q3 2.33 2.6” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row, Nowcast (current quarter) column · source ↗2026-09-192.33
    2026 Q4“46283 2026:Q3 2.33 2.6” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row, Forecast (next quarter) column · source ↗2026-09-192.6
    2026 Q3“46276 2026:Q3 2.2599999999999998 2.5099999999999998” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row (forecast date 46276), Nowcast (current quarter) column · source ↗2026-09-122.2599999999999998
    2026 Q4“46276 2026:Q3 2.2599999999999998 2.5099999999999998” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row (forecast date 46276), Forecast (next quarter) column · source ↗2026-09-122.5099999999999998
    2026 Q3“46269 2026:Q3 2.2599999999999998 2.5099999999999998” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row; Nowcast (current quarter) column · source ↗2026-09-052.2599999999999998
    2026 Q4“46269 2026:Q3 2.2599999999999998 2.5099999999999998” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row; Forecast (next quarter) column · source ↗2026-09-052.5099999999999998
    2026 Q3“46262 2026:Q3 2.2200000000000002” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row, Nowcast (current quarter) column · source ↗2026-08-292.2200000000000002
    2026 Q3“46255 2026:Q3 2.27” — Forecasts By Horizon, latest row (forecast date 46255), Nowcast (current quarter) · source ↗2026-08-262.27