Federal Reserve Bank of New York

A regional Reserve Bank publishing recurring household and market-participant expectation surveys.

Government · United StatesNew York, New York18 reports22 figuresInstitution website ↗

What they changed their mind about

5 revisions
2026-09-19U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q3 · Quarterly SAAR2.25999999999999982.33
2026-09-19U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q4 · Quarterly SAAR2.50999999999999982.6
2026-09-05U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q3 · Quarterly SAAR2.22000000000000022.2599999999999998
2026-08-29U.S. real GDP growth 2026 Q3 · Quarterly SAAR2.272.2200000000000002
2026-08-26U.S. one-year inflation expectation 1 year ahead · Median household expectation3.5%3.6 percent

Federal funds rate

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PeriodReportedForecast
December 2026 FOMC“Federal Funds Target Rate or Range Modal Forecasts | Dec. 8-9 | Median 3.63%” — Question 2a · Page 6 · source ↗2026-07-083.63%

U.S. headline CPI inflation

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PeriodReportedForecast
1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — July Survey summary, first bullet · source ↗2026-08-303.6 percent

U.S. home-price growth

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PeriodReportedForecast
1 year ahead“Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.5 percentage point to 3.5%” — Inflation · Home prices · source ↗2026-06-083.5%

U.S. one-year inflation expectation

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PeriodReportedForecast
1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.” — Main survey results, Inflation · source ↗2026-09-183.6 percent
1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.” — August Survey summary, first bullet · source ↗2026-09-143.6 percent
1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.” — Main survey results, inflation bullet · source ↗2026-09-133.6 percent
1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, July Survey bullet points · source ↗2026-09-063.6 percent
1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, inflation expectations bullet · source ↗2026-09-053.6 percent
1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, July Survey bullet points · source ↗2026-09-043.6 percent
1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main Survey Results, July Survey summary · source ↗2026-09-033.6 percent
1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, July Survey highlights · source ↗2026-09-013.6 percent
1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — July Survey, first bullet · source ↗2026-08-273.6 percent
1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, inflation expectations bullet · source ↗2026-08-263.6 percent
1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon” — Inflation · source ↗2026-06-083.5%

U.S. real GDP growth

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PeriodReportedForecast
2026 Q3“46283 2026:Q3 2.33 2.6” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row, Nowcast (current quarter) column · source ↗2026-09-192.33
2026 Q4“46283 2026:Q3 2.33 2.6” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row, Forecast (next quarter) column · source ↗2026-09-192.6
2026 Q3“46276 2026:Q3 2.2599999999999998 2.5099999999999998” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row (forecast date 46276), Nowcast (current quarter) column · source ↗2026-09-122.2599999999999998
2026 Q4“46276 2026:Q3 2.2599999999999998 2.5099999999999998” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row (forecast date 46276), Forecast (next quarter) column · source ↗2026-09-122.5099999999999998
2026 Q3“46269 2026:Q3 2.2599999999999998 2.5099999999999998” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row; Nowcast (current quarter) column · source ↗2026-09-052.2599999999999998
2026 Q4“46269 2026:Q3 2.2599999999999998 2.5099999999999998” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row; Forecast (next quarter) column · source ↗2026-09-052.5099999999999998
2026 Q3“46262 2026:Q3 2.2200000000000002” — Forecasts By Horizon sheet, final row, Nowcast (current quarter) column · source ↗2026-08-292.2200000000000002
2026 Q3“46255 2026:Q3 2.27” — Forecasts By Horizon, latest row (forecast date 46255), Nowcast (current quarter) · source ↗2026-08-262.27