Fannie Mae Economic and Housing Forecast
Extracted from https://www.fanniemae.com/media/document/pdf/economic-forecast-082026
Published2026-08-13
Extracted figures24
Source classInstitution forecast
Update cadenceMonthly
Available formatPDF
| Metric | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 2026 Q4“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Forecast table, Gross Domestic Product, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 2.0 |
| Real GDP growth | 2027 Q4“| Gross Domestic Product | -0.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |” — Forecast table, Gross Domestic Product, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 2.5 |
| Unemployment rate | 2026 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |” — Forecast table, Unemployment Rate, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 4.3 |
| Unemployment rate | 2027 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |” — Forecast table, Unemployment Rate, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 4.3 |
| Headline PCE inflation | 2026 Q4“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |” — Forecast table, PCE Chain Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 3.5 |
| Headline PCE inflation | 2027 Q4“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |” — Forecast table, PCE Chain Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 2.1 |
| Headline CPI inflation | 2026 Q4“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.0 |” — Forecast table, Consumer Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 3.1 |
| Headline CPI inflation | 2027 Q4“| Consumer Price Index | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.0 |” — Forecast table, Consumer Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 2.0 |
| Core CPI inflation | 2026 Q4“| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 |” — Forecast table, Core Consumer Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 2.5 |
| Core CPI inflation | 2027 Q4“| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 |” — Forecast table, Core Consumer Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 2.4 |
| Core PCE inflation | 2026 Q4“| Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 |” — Forecast table, Core PCE Chain Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 3.2 |
| Core PCE inflation | 2027 Q4“| Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 |” — Forecast table, Core PCE Chain Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 2.2 |
| Payroll growth | 2026 full year“| Percent Change: Q4/Q4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 |” — Forecast table, Employment, Total Nonfarm, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 0.5 |
| Payroll growth | 2027 full year“| Percent Change: Q4/Q4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 |” — Forecast table, Employment, Total Nonfarm, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 0.5 |
| Federal funds rate | 2026 full year“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 |” — Forecast table, Federal Funds Rate, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 3.6 |
| Federal funds rate | 2027 full year“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 |” — Forecast table, Federal Funds Rate, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 3.6 |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 2026 full year“| 10-Year Treasury Note Yield | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.9 |” — Forecast table, 10-Year Treasury Note Yield, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 4.5 |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 2027 full year“| 10-Year Treasury Note Yield | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.9 |” — Forecast table, 10-Year Treasury Note Yield, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 4.9 |
| Personal consumption | 2026 Q4“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 |” — Forecast table, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 2.0 |
| Personal consumption | 2027 Q4“| Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 |” — Forecast table, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 2.3 |
| Business investment | 2026 Q4“| Business Fixed Investment | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 4.8 |” — Forecast table, Business Fixed Investment, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 7.5 |
| Business investment | 2027 Q4“| Business Fixed Investment | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 4.8 |” — Forecast table, Business Fixed Investment, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 4.8 |
| Residential investment | 2026 Q4“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.5 | -2.0 | -0.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | -3.8 | -2.3 | 3.4 |” — Forecast table, Residential Fixed Investment, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | -2.3 |
| Residential investment | 2027 Q4“| Residential Fixed Investment | -1.0 | -5.1 | -7.1 | -1.7 | -7.8 | 1.5 | -2.0 | -0.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | -3.8 | -2.3 | 3.4 |” — Forecast table, Residential Fixed Investment, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 3.4 |