NABE Outlook Survey
Extracted from https://www.nabe.com/NABE/NABE/Surveys/Outlook_Surveys/October_2026_Outlook_Survey_Summary.aspx. The document stated no publication date, so this report is dated when it was read.
National Association for Business EconomicsOpen source document ↗
Published2026-10-12
Extracted figures6
Source classConsensus survey
Update cadenceQuarterly
Available formatHTML
| Metric | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 2026 full year““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 rose to **2.1%**, up from 2.0% in the June 2026 survey, supported by business investment that is now expected to grow **6.7%**.” — Survey Highlights · source ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 2.1% |
| Unemployment rate | 2026 full year““The labor market continues to outperform expectations, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to **71,000**, and lowered their unemployment rate forecast to **4.2%**,” added **NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE**, senior economist, KPMG.” — Survey Highlights · source ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 4.2% |
| Core PCE inflation | 2026 Q4“Core personal consumption expenditures inflation is expected to reach **3.3%** by the fourth quarter of 2026, and the 2027 core inflation forecast was revised higher for a second consecutive survey to 2.4%.” — Survey Highlights · source ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 3.3% |
| Core PCE inflation | 2027 full year“Core personal consumption expenditures inflation is expected to reach **3.3%** by the fourth quarter of 2026, and the 2027 core inflation forecast was revised higher for a second consecutive survey to 2.4%.” — Survey Highlights · source ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 2.4% |
| Federal funds rate | December 2026 FOMC“Following the Federal Open Market Committee's September rate hike, panelists now expect one more 25-basis-point increase before year-end, to a midpoint of 4.125%, and no rate cuts through 2027.” — Survey Highlights · source ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 4.125% |
| Business investment | 2026 full year““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 rose to **2.1%**, up from 2.0% in the June 2026 survey, supported by business investment that is now expected to grow **6.7%**.” — Survey Highlights · source ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 6.7% |