Common figures, kept close to the source.
Comparisons hold the target period, measurement basis, geography and source class constant. Institution forecasts, model nowcasts and surveys stay separate.
23 metrics carrying figures19 comparable groups with two or more institutions
| Metric | Unit | Figures | Institutions | Widest spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. real GDP growthProjected growth in inflation-adjusted U.S. gross domestic product. | % | 24 | 12 | +1.00% |
| U.S. unemployment rateProjected share of the U.S. civilian labor force that is unemployed. | % | 9 | 5 | +0.30% |
| U.S. headline PCE inflationProjected change in the personal consumption expenditures price index. | % | 8 | 5 | +0.10% |
| Federal funds rateProjected federal funds target, midpoint, or quarterly average as labeled. | % | 7 | 5 | 0.00% |
| U.S. core PCE inflationProjected change in PCE prices excluding food and energy. | % | 7 | 5 | +0.10% |
| U.S. core CPI inflationProjected change in consumer prices excluding food and energy. | % | 5 | 5 | +0.50% |
| U.S. headline CPI inflationProjected change in the all-items consumer price index. | % | 5 | 5 | +0.50% |
| Brent crude oil priceProjected average spot price of Brent crude oil. | $/barrel | 4 | 2 | — |
| U.S. business fixed investment growthProjected real growth in business fixed investment. | % | 4 | 4 | +1.80% |
| U.S. retail gasoline priceProjected U.S. average retail price for regular-grade gasoline. | $/gallon | 4 | 1 | — |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yieldProjected yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. | % | 3 | 3 | 0.00% |
| U.S. home-price growthProjected year-over-year change in a stated national home-price index. | % | 3 | 3 | — |
| U.S. housing startsProjected annualized pace of new privately owned housing starts. | thousand units SAAR | 3 | 3 | +159K |
| U.S. nonfarm payroll growthProjected average monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment. | thousand jobs/month | 3 | 3 | +22.0K/mo |
| U.S. personal consumption growthProjected real growth in personal consumption expenditures. | % | 3 | 3 | +0.90% |
| U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rateProjected rate on a conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. | % | 2 | 2 | +0.10% |
| U.S. existing-home salesProjected annualized pace of existing single-family, condo, and co-op sales. | thousand units SAAR | 2 | 2 | +4K |
| U.S. new single-family home salesProjected annualized pace of new single-family home sales. | thousand units SAAR | 2 | 2 | +40K |
| Federal budget deficit as a share of GDPProjected federal budget deficit relative to U.S. gross domestic product. | % | 1 | 1 | — |
| Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDPProjected federal debt held by the public relative to U.S. GDP. | % | 1 | 1 | — |
| Probability of negative U.S. GDP growthSurvey estimate of the probability that real GDP contracts in a target quarter. | % | 1 | 1 | — |
| U.S. one-year inflation expectationMedian expected inflation over the next year among surveyed U.S. households. | % | 1 | 1 | — |
| West Texas Intermediate crude oil priceProjected average spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. | $/barrel | 1 | 1 | — |