Common figures, kept close to the source.
Comparisons hold the target period, measurement basis, geography and source class constant. Institution forecasts, model nowcasts and surveys stay separate.
31 metrics carrying figures53 comparable groups with two or more institutions
| Metric | Unit | Figures | Institutions | Widest spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. real GDP growthProjected growth in inflation-adjusted U.S. gross domestic product. | % | 187 | 16 | +1.30% |
| U.S. unemployment rateProjected share of the U.S. civilian labor force that is unemployed. | % | 128 | 7 | +0.36% |
| West Texas Intermediate crude oil priceProjected average spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. | $/barrel | 120 | 2 | — |
| Henry Hub natural gas priceProjected Henry Hub spot price for natural gas. | $/MMBtu | 119 | 2 | +1.21 |
| Federal funds rateProjected federal funds target, midpoint, or quarterly average as labeled. | % | 113 | 6 | +0.21% |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yieldProjected yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. | % | 109 | 4 | +0.65% |
| U.S. personal consumption growthProjected real growth in personal consumption expenditures. | % | 109 | 4 | +0.90% |
| U.S. 3-month Treasury bill rateProjected secondary-market rate on the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill. | % | 104 | 1 | — |
| U.S. labor force participation rateProjected share of the civilian noninstitutional population aged 16 and over in the labor force. | % | 104 | 1 | — |
| U.S. business fixed investment growthProjected real growth in business fixed investment. | % | 92 | 6 | +1.80% |
| U.S. nonfarm productivity growthProjected change in output per hour in the nonfarm business sector. | % | 86 | 1 | — |
| U.S. headline CPI inflationProjected change in the all-items consumer price index. | % | 77 | 9 | +0.50% |
| U.S. headline PCE inflationProjected change in the personal consumption expenditures price index. | % | 71 | 7 | +1.10% |
| U.S. core PCE inflationProjected change in PCE prices excluding food and energy. | % | 68 | 7 | +0.80% |
| U.S. core CPI inflationProjected change in consumer prices excluding food and energy. | % | 65 | 6 | +0.50% |
| Brent crude oil priceProjected average spot price of Brent crude oil. | $/barrel | 45 | 3 | +$6.00/bbl |
| U.S. retail gasoline priceProjected U.S. average retail price for regular-grade gasoline. | $/gallon | 41 | 1 | — |
| U.S. employment cost index growthProjected change in the employment cost index for wages and salaries, private industry workers. | % | 23 | 1 | — |
| U.S. nonfarm payroll growthProjected average monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment. | thousand jobs/month | 12 | 3 | +22.0K/mo |
| U.S. one-year inflation expectationMedian expected inflation over the next year among surveyed U.S. households. | % | 11 | 1 | — |
| Probability of negative U.S. GDP growthSurvey estimate of the probability that real GDP contracts in a target quarter. | % | 6 | 1 | — |
| U.S. housing startsProjected annualized pace of new privately owned housing starts. | thousand units SAAR | 6 | 4 | +159K |
| U.S. home-price growthProjected year-over-year change in a stated national home-price index. | % | 3 | 3 | — |
| U.S. industrial production growthProjected change in the industrial production index. | % | 3 | 1 | — |
| U.S. residential investment growthProjected real growth in private residential fixed investment. | % | 3 | 2 | — |
| U.S. total vehicle salesProjected annualized pace of total light vehicle sales. | million units SAAR | 3 | 1 | — |
| U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rateProjected rate on a conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. | % | 2 | 2 | +0.10% |
| U.S. existing-home salesProjected annualized pace of existing single-family, condo, and co-op sales. | thousand units SAAR | 2 | 2 | +4K |
| U.S. new single-family home salesProjected annualized pace of new single-family home sales. | thousand units SAAR | 2 | 2 | +40K |
| Federal budget deficit as a share of GDPProjected federal budget deficit relative to U.S. gross domestic product. | % | 1 | 1 | — |
| Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDPProjected federal debt held by the public relative to U.S. GDP. | % | 1 | 1 | — |