PLANETARYINSIGHTS

    Real GDP growth 2026 full year 2.1 2.4 ▲ EIAReal GDP growth 2027 full year 2.6 2.8 ▲ EIAHeadline PCE inflation 2026 Q4 3.95 3.94 ▼ Cleveland FedHeadline CPI inflation 2026 Q4 4.24 4.40 ▲ Cleveland FedCore CPI inflation 2026 Q4 3.02 3.40 ▲ Cleveland FedCore PCE inflation 2026 Q4 3.33 3.38 ▲ Cleveland Fed

    U.S. core CPI inflation

    Projected change in consumer prices excluding food and energy.

    United States · %127 extracted figures7 institutions4 comparable groups

    Revisions on this metric

    21 on record
    2026-11-10Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized3.02→3.40
    2026-10-15Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized2.56→3.02
    2026-09-12Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized1.91→2.16
    2026-08-26Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized1.90%→1.91
    2026-08-14Philadelphia Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized2.7%→2.8
    2026-02-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth3.064→3.008
    2026-02-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth3.051→3.135
    2026-02-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.377→2.576
    2026-02-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual growth2.256→2.357
    2025-09-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.567→3.064
    2025-09-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth2.397→3.051
    2025-09-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.299→2.377
    2025-09-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual growth2.283→2.256
    2025-01-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual growth3.577→3.415
    2025-01-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.73→2.567
    2025-01-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth2.395→2.397
    2025-01-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.283→2.299
    2024-06-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual growth3.103→3.577
    2024-06-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.736→2.73
    2024-06-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth2.462→2.395
    2024-06-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.276→2.283

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly year-over-year

    United States · 3 institutions
    2.40%2.70%2.90%CONSENSUSJUL 26JUL 26JUL 26Wells Fargo · 2.4% · 2026-07-30RBC · 2.8% · 2026-07-13Fannie Mae · 2.9% · 2026-07-10Fannie Mae 2.9%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Wells Fargo2026 Q4“Core Consumer Price Index | 2026 4Q | 2.4” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-302.4%
    RBC2026 Q4“CPI ex-food & energy (y/y%) | 2026 Q4 | 2.8” — U.S. Forecast Detail · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-132.8%
    Fannie Mae2026 Q4“Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 26.4 | 2.9” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-102.9%

    Readout

    Consensus
    2.70%
    Spread
    +0.50%
    Low
    2.40%
    High
    2.90%
    Reporting
    3
    Basis
    Quarterly year-over-year

    2026 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 2 institutions
    2.40%2.87%3.13%CONSENSUSFEB 24MAY 25SEPT 26Fannie Mae · 2.6 · 2026-09-11CBO · 3.135 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.051 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.397 · 2025-01-01CBO · 2.395 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.462 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.462

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2026 full year“| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 |” — Table, Core Consumer Price Index row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.6
    CBO2026 full year“2026,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.135,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-013.135
    CBO2026 full year“2026,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.051,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-013.051
    CBO2026 full year“2026,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.397,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.397
    CBO2026 full year“2026,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.395,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-012.395
    CBO2026 full year“2026,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.462,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.462

    Readout

    Consensus
    2.87%
    Spread
    +0.53%
    Low
    2.60%
    High
    3.13%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Annual growth

    2029 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 2 institutions
    2.00%2.14%2.28%CONSENSUSFEB 26JUN 26SEPT 26Deloitte · 2% · 2026-09-29CBO · 2.278 · 2026-02-01CBO 2.278

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Deloitte2029 full year“On a sequential basis, we expect core inflation to moderate until 2029, when it is projected to return to the US Fed’s 2% target.” — Prices section · source ↗2026-09-292%
    CBO2029 full year“2029,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.278,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.278

    Readout

    Consensus
    2.14%
    Spread
    +0.28%
    Low
    2.00%
    High
    2.28%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Annual growth

    2027 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 2 institutions
    2.28%2.54%2.58%CONSENSUSFEB 24MAY 25SEPT 26Fannie Mae · 2.5 · 2026-09-11CBO · 2.576 · 2026-02-01CBO · 2.377 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.299 · 2025-01-01CBO · 2.283 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.276 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.276

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2027 full year“| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 |” — Table, Core Consumer Price Index row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.5
    CBO2027 full year“2027,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.576,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.576
    CBO2027 full year“2027,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.377,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-012.377
    CBO2027 full year“2027,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.299,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.299
    CBO2027 full year“2027,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.283,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-012.283
    CBO2027 full year“2027,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.276,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.276

    Readout

    Consensus
    2.54%
    Spread
    +0.08%
    Low
    2.50%
    High
    2.58%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Annual growth

    2023 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2023 full year“2023,core_cpiu_pct_change,4.777,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-014.777

    Readout

    Low
    4.78%
    High
    4.78%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2024 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 1 institution
    3.10%3.42%3.58%CONSENSUSFEB 24JUL 24JAN 25CBO · 3.415 · 2025-01-01CBO · 3.577 · 2024-06-01CBO · 3.103 · 2024-02-01CBO 3.103

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2024 full year“2024,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.415,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-013.415
    CBO2024 full year“2024,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.577,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-013.577
    CBO2024 full year“2024,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.103,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-013.103

    Readout

    Low
    3.42%
    High
    3.42%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2025 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 1 institution
    2.57%3.01%3.06%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 3.008 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.064 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.567 · 2025-01-01CBO · 2.73 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.736 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.736

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2025 full year“2025,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.008,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-013.008
    CBO2025 full year“2025,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.064,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-013.064
    CBO2025 full year“2025,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.567,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.567
    CBO2025 full year“2025,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.73,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-012.73
    CBO2025 full year“2025,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.736,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.736

    Readout

    Low
    3.01%
    High
    3.01%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized

    United States · 1 institution
    1.90%2.16%CONSENSUSJUL 26SEPT 26OCT 26Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-10-14Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-10-13Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-10-11Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-10-10Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-10-08Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-10-07Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-10-05Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-10-03Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-10-02Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-10-01Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-30Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-29Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-28Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-27Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-26Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-25Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-24Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-23Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-22Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-21Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-20Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-19Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-18Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-17Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-16Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-15Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-14Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-13Cleveland Fed · 2.16 · 2026-09-12Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-09-11Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-09-10Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-09-09Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-09-08Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-09-07Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-09-06Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-09-05Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-09-04Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-09-03Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-09-02Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-09-01Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-08-31Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-08-30Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-08-29Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-08-28Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-08-27Cleveland Fed · 1.91 · 2026-08-26Cleveland Fed · 1.90% · 2026-07-27Cleveland Fed 1.90%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/13 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-142.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-132.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-112.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-102.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/07 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-082.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/06 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-072.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-052.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-032.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/01 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-022.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 09/30 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-012.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 | 09/29 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-302.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-292.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-282.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-272.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 | 09/25 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-262.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 | 09/24 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-252.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 | 09/23 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-242.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/22 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-232.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/21 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-222.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/18 |” — Inflation, quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-212.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/18 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-202.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/18 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-192.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/17 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-182.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/16 |” — Inflation, quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-172.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/15 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-162.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/14 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-152.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-142.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-132.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-122.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.24 | 1.91 | 2.47 | 3.00 | 09/10 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-111.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.30 | 1.91 | 2.51 | 3.00 | 09/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-101.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.29 | 1.91 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/08 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-091.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Inflation, quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-081.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-071.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-061.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-051.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.26 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/03 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-041.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.25 | 1.91 | 2.48 | 3.00 | 09/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-031.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.10 | 1.91 | 2.39 | 3.00 | 09/01 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-021.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.05 | 1.91 | 2.36 | 3.00 | 08/31 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-09-011.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-08-311.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-08-301.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-08-291.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.01 | 1.91 | 2.34 | 3.00 | 08/27 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-08-281.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.03 | 1.91 | 2.35 | 3.00 | 08/26 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-08-271.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.03 | 1.91 | 2.35 | 3.00 | 08/26 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-08-261.91
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“Core CPI · 07/27 · 1.89503158168218” — Historical JSON · 2026:Q3 · Core CPI · July 27 · source ↗2026-07-271.90%

    Readout

    Low
    2.16%
    High
    2.16%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2026 Q3“They also predict that core CPI inflation over the current quarter will be lower at an annual rate of 2.7 percent, down from the previous estimate of 2.9 percent.” — Inflation outlook paragraph · source ↗2026-08-142.7 percent

    Readout

    Low
    2.70%
    High
    2.70%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2026 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2026 Q4“| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 |” — Forecast table, Core Consumer Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.5

    Readout

    Low
    2.50%
    High
    2.50%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2026 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2026 Q4“Measured on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis, headline CPI and core CPI inflation in 2026 are expected to average 3.6 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, little changed from the previous estimates.” — Inflation outlook paragraph · source ↗2026-08-142.8 percent

    Readout

    Low
    2.80%
    High
    2.80%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized

    United States · 1 institution
    2.70%2.80%CONSENSUSMAY 26JUN 26AUG 26Philadelphia Fed · 2.8 · 2026-08-14Philadelphia Fed · 2.7% · 2026-05-15Philadelphia Fed 2.7%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |” — Inflation table, 2026:Q4 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗2026-08-142.8
    Philadelphia Fed2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Core CPI | Current 2.7” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗2026-05-152.7%

    Readout

    Low
    2.80%
    High
    2.80%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized

    United States · 1 institution
    2.56%3.40%CONSENSUSOCT 26OCT 26NOV 26Cleveland Fed · 3.40 · 2026-11-11Cleveland Fed · 3.40 · 2026-11-10Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-11-09Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-11-08Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-11-07Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-11-06Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-11-05Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-11-04Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-11-03Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-11-02Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-11-01Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-31Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-29Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-28Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-27Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-26Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-25Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-24Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-23Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-22Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-21Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-20Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-19Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-18Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-17Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-16Cleveland Fed · 3.02 · 2026-10-15Cleveland Fed · 2.56 · 2026-10-14Cleveland Fed · 2.56 · 2026-10-13Cleveland Fed · 2.56 · 2026-10-12Cleveland Fed · 2.56 · 2026-10-11Cleveland Fed · 2.56 · 2026-10-10Cleveland Fed · 2.56 · 2026-10-09Cleveland Fed · 2.56 · 2026-10-08Cleveland Fed · 2.56 · 2026-10-07Cleveland Fed · 2.56 · 2026-10-06Cleveland Fed · 2.56 · 2026-10-05Cleveland Fed · 2.56 · 2026-10-04Cleveland Fed · 2.56 · 2026-10-03Cleveland Fed · 2.56 · 2026-10-02Cleveland Fed 2.56

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | 4.40 | 3.40 | 3.94 | 3.38 | 11/10” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-11-113.40
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.40 | 3.40 | 3.94 | 3.38 | 11/10 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-11-103.40
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.24 | 3.02 | 3.95 | 3.33 | 11/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-11-093.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | 4.22 | 3.02 | 3.94 | 3.33 | 11/06 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column (model nowcast, updated 11/06) · source ↗2026-11-083.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.22 | 3.02 | 3.94 | 3.33 | 11/06 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column (nowcast model output) · source ↗2026-11-073.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.22 | 3.02 | 3.94 | 3.33 | 11/06 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-11-063.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | 4.07 | 3.02 | 3.85 | 3.33 | 11/05” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-11-053.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.31 | 3.02 | 3.99 | 3.33 | 11/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-11-043.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.42 | 3.02 | 4.05 | 3.33 | 11/03 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-11-033.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.26 | 3.02 | 4.52 | 3.33 | 11/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-11-023.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.08 | 3.02 | 4.42 | 3.33 | 10/30 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column, Updated 10/30 · source ↗2026-11-013.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.08 | 3.02 | 4.42 | 3.33 | 10/30 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column, Updated 10/30 · source ↗2026-10-313.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.13 | 3.02 | 4.45 | 3.33 | 10/29 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-293.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.05 | 3.02 | 4.28 | 3.15 | 10/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-283.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.21 | 3.02 | 4.37 | 3.15 | 10/27 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-273.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.35 | 3.02 | 4.45 | 3.15 | 10/26 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-263.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.13 | 3.02 | 4.33 | 3.15 | 10/23 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-253.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.13 | 3.02 | 4.33 | 3.15 | 10/23 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column (model nowcast) · source ↗2026-10-243.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.13 | 3.02 | 4.33 | 3.15 | 10/23 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-233.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.84 | 3.02 | 4.16 | 3.15 | 10/22 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, row 2026:Q4, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-223.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.85 | 3.02 | 4.17 | 3.15 | 10/21 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-213.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.98 | 3.02 | 4.24 | 3.15 | 10/20 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row · source ↗2026-10-203.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.03 | 3.02 | 4.27 | 3.15 | 10/19 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-193.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.77 | 3.02 | 4.12 | 3.15 | 10/16 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-183.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.77 | 3.02 | 4.12 | 3.15 | 10/16 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-173.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.77 | 3.02 | 4.12 | 3.15 | 10/16 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-163.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.82 | 3.02 | 4.15 | 3.15 | 10/14 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-153.02
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.50 | 2.56 | 4.06 | 3.05 | 10/13 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-142.56
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.39 | 2.56 | 4.00 | 3.05 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-132.56
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.39 | 2.56 | 4.00 | 3.05 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-122.56
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.39 | 2.56 | 4.00 | 3.05 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-112.56
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.39 | 2.56 | 4.00 | 3.05 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-102.56
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.12 | 2.56 | 3.85 | 3.05 | 10/08 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-092.56
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.14 | 2.56 | 3.86 | 3.05 | 10/07 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-082.56
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.10 | 2.56 | 3.84 | 3.05 | 10/06 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-072.56
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.01 | 2.56 | 3.79 | 3.05 | 10/05 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-062.56
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.02 | 2.56 | 3.79 | 3.05 | 10/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-052.56
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.02 | 2.56 | 3.79 | 3.05 | 10/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-042.56
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.02 | 2.56 | 3.79 | 3.05 | 10/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-032.56
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.24 | 2.56 | 3.91 | 3.05 | 10/01 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, Core CPI column · source ↗2026-10-022.56

    Readout

    Low
    3.40%
    High
    3.40%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2027 Q1 · Quarterly annualized

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2027 Q1“| 2027:Q1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 |” — Inflation table, 2027:Q1 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗2026-08-142.8

    Readout

    Low
    2.80%
    High
    2.80%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2027 Q2 · Quarterly annualized

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2027 Q2“| 2027:Q2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |” — Inflation table, 2027:Q2 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗2026-08-142.5

    Readout

    Low
    2.50%
    High
    2.50%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2027 Q3 · Quarterly annualized

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2027 Q3“| 2027:Q3 | N.A. | 2.4 | N.A. | 2.5 | N.A. | 2.3 | N.A. | 2.3 |” — Inflation table, 2027:Q3 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗2026-08-142.5

    Readout

    Low
    2.50%
    High
    2.50%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2027 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2027 Q4“| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 |” — Forecast table, Core Consumer Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.4

    Readout

    Low
    2.40%
    High
    2.40%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2027 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2027 Q4“| 2027 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |” — Inflation table, 2027 Q4/Q4 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗2026-08-142.6

    Readout

    Low
    2.60%
    High
    2.60%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2028 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2028 Q4“| 2028 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Inflation table, 2028 Q4/Q4 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗2026-08-142.4

    Readout

    Low
    2.40%
    High
    2.40%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2028 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 1 institution
    2.26%2.36%CONSENSUSJAN 25JUL 25FEB 26CBO · 2.357 · 2026-02-01CBO · 2.256 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.283 · 2025-01-01CBO 2.283

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2028 full year“2028,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.357,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.357
    CBO2028 full year“2028,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.256,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-012.256
    CBO2028 full year“2028,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.283,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.283

    Readout

    Low
    2.36%
    High
    2.36%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.