U.S. core CPI inflation

Projected change in consumer prices excluding food and energy.

United States · %60 extracted figures6 institutions1 comparable groups

Revisions on this metric

19 on record

2026-09-12Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized~~1.91~~→2.16

2026-08-26Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized~~1.90%~~→1.91

2026-08-14Philadelphia Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized~~2.7%~~→2.8

2026-02-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth~~3.064~~→3.008

2026-02-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth~~3.051~~→3.135

2026-02-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth~~2.377~~→2.576

2026-02-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual growth~~2.256~~→2.357

2025-09-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth~~2.567~~→3.064

2025-09-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth~~2.397~~→3.051

2025-09-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth~~2.299~~→2.377

2025-09-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual growth~~2.283~~→2.256

2025-01-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual growth~~3.577~~→3.415

2025-01-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth~~2.73~~→2.567

2025-01-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth~~2.395~~→2.397

2025-01-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth~~2.283~~→2.299

2024-06-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual growth~~3.103~~→3.577

2024-06-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth~~2.736~~→2.73

2024-06-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth~~2.462~~→2.395

2024-06-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth~~2.276~~→2.283

2026 Q4 · Quarterly year-over-year

3 institutions

Forecasts by report dateUnited States

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Wells Fargo	2026 Q4“Core Consumer Price Index \| 2026 4Q \| 2.4” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗	2026-07-30	2.4%
RBC	2026 Q4“CPI ex-food & energy (y/y%) \| 2026 Q4 \| 2.8” — U.S. Forecast Detail · 2026 Q4 · source ↗	2026-07-13	2.8%
Fannie Mae	2026 Q4“Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) \| 26.4 \| 2.9” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗	2026-07-10	2.9%

Readout

Consensus: 2.70%
Spread: +0.50%
Low: 2.40%
High: 2.90%
Reporting: 3
Basis: Quarterly year-over-year

2023 full year · Annual growth

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
CBO	2023 full year“2023,core_cpiu_pct_change,4.777,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2024-02-01	4.777

Readout

Low: 4.78%
High: 4.78%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2024 full year · Annual growth

1 institution

Forecasts by report dateUnited States

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
CBO	2024 full year“2024,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.415,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2025-01-01	3.415
CBO	2024 full year“2024,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.577,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2024-06-01	3.577
CBO	2024 full year“2024,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.103,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2024-02-01	3.103

Readout

Low: 3.42%
High: 3.42%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2025 full year · Annual growth

1 institution

Forecasts by report dateUnited States

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
CBO	2025 full year“2025,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.008,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2026-02-01	3.008
CBO	2025 full year“2025,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.064,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2025-09-01	3.064
CBO	2025 full year“2025,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.567,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2025-01-01	2.567
CBO	2025 full year“2025,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.73,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2024-06-01	2.73
CBO	2025 full year“2025,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.736,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2024-02-01	2.736

Readout

Low: 3.01%
High: 3.01%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized

1 institution

Forecasts by report dateUnited States

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.35 \| 2.16 \| 2.44 \| 3.00 \| 09/15 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-16	2.16
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.35 \| 2.16 \| 2.44 \| 3.00 \| 09/14 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-15	2.16
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.35 \| 2.16 \| 2.44 \| 3.00 \| 09/11 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-14	2.16
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.35 \| 2.16 \| 2.44 \| 3.00 \| 09/11 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-13	2.16
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.35 \| 2.16 \| 2.44 \| 3.00 \| 09/11 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-12	2.16
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.24 \| 1.91 \| 2.47 \| 3.00 \| 09/10 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-11	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.30 \| 1.91 \| 2.51 \| 3.00 \| 09/09 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-10	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.29 \| 1.91 \| 2.50 \| 3.00 \| 09/08 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-09	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.27 \| 1.91 \| 2.49 \| 3.00 \| 09/04 \|” — Inflation, quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-08	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.27 \| 1.91 \| 2.49 \| 3.00 \| 09/04 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-07	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.27 \| 1.91 \| 2.49 \| 3.00 \| 09/04 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-06	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.27 \| 1.91 \| 2.49 \| 3.00 \| 09/04 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-05	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.26 \| 1.91 \| 2.49 \| 3.00 \| 09/03 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-04	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.25 \| 1.91 \| 2.48 \| 3.00 \| 09/02 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-03	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.10 \| 1.91 \| 2.39 \| 3.00 \| 09/01 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-02	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.05 \| 1.91 \| 2.36 \| 3.00 \| 08/31 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-09-01	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.07 \| 1.91 \| 2.37 \| 3.00 \| 08/28 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-31	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.07 \| 1.91 \| 2.37 \| 3.00 \| 08/28 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-30	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.07 \| 1.91 \| 2.37 \| 3.00 \| 08/28 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-29	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.01 \| 1.91 \| 2.34 \| 3.00 \| 08/27 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-28	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.03 \| 1.91 \| 2.35 \| 3.00 \| 08/26 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-27	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“\| 2026:Q3 \| 1.03 \| 1.91 \| 2.35 \| 3.00 \| 08/26 \|” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-26	1.91
Cleveland Fed	2026 Q3“Core CPI · 07/27 · 1.89503158168218” — Historical JSON · 2026:Q3 · Core CPI · July 27 · source ↗	2026-07-27	1.90%

Readout

Low: 2.16%
High: 2.16%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly annualized

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2026 Q3“They also predict that core CPI inflation over the current quarter will be lower at an annual rate of 2.7 percent, down from the previous estimate of 2.9 percent.” — Inflation outlook paragraph · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.7 percent

Readout

Low: 2.70%
High: 2.70%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly annualized

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 Q4 · Q4/Q4

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Fannie Mae	2026 Q4“\| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) \| 3.1 \| 2.8 \| 3.1 \| 2.7 \| 2.5 \| 2.7 \| 2.4 \| 2.5 \| 2.4 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \| 2.7 \| 2.5 \| 2.4 \|” — Forecast table, Core Consumer Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗	2026-08-13	2.5

Readout

Low: 2.50%
High: 2.50%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Q4/Q4

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 Q4 · Q4/Q4

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2026 Q4“Measured on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis, headline CPI and core CPI inflation in 2026 are expected to average 3.6 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, little changed from the previous estimates.” — Inflation outlook paragraph · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.8 percent

Readout

Low: 2.80%
High: 2.80%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Q4/Q4

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized

1 institution

Forecasts by report dateUnited States

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2026 Q4“\| 2026:Q4 \| 2.5 \| 2.5 \| 2.7 \| 2.8 \| 2.4 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \|” — Inflation table, 2026:Q4 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.8
Philadelphia Fed	2026 Q4“2026:Q4 \| Core CPI \| Current 2.7” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗	2026-05-15	2.7%

Readout

Low: 2.80%
High: 2.80%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly annualized

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 full year · Annual growth

1 institution

Forecasts by report dateUnited States

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
CBO	2026 full year“2026,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.135,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2026-02-01	3.135
CBO	2026 full year“2026,core_cpiu_pct_change,3.051,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2025-09-01	3.051
CBO	2026 full year“2026,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.397,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2025-01-01	2.397
CBO	2026 full year“2026,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.395,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2024-06-01	2.395
CBO	2026 full year“2026,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.462,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2024-02-01	2.462

Readout

Low: 3.13%
High: 3.13%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 Q1 · Quarterly annualized

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2027 Q1“\| 2027:Q1 \| 2.5 \| 2.5 \| 2.7 \| 2.8 \| 2.5 \| 2.5 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \|” — Inflation table, 2027:Q1 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.8

Readout

Low: 2.80%
High: 2.80%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly annualized

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 Q2 · Quarterly annualized

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2027 Q2“\| 2027:Q2 \| 2.4 \| 2.3 \| 2.5 \| 2.5 \| 2.3 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \|” — Inflation table, 2027:Q2 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.5

Readout

Low: 2.50%
High: 2.50%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly annualized

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 Q3 · Quarterly annualized

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2027 Q3“\| 2027:Q3 \| N.A. \| 2.4 \| N.A. \| 2.5 \| N.A. \| 2.3 \| N.A. \| 2.3 \|” — Inflation table, 2027:Q3 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.5

Readout

Low: 2.50%
High: 2.50%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Quarterly annualized

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 Q4 · Q4/Q4

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Fannie Mae	2027 Q4“\| Core Consumer Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) \| 3.1 \| 2.8 \| 3.1 \| 2.7 \| 2.5 \| 2.7 \| 2.4 \| 2.5 \| 2.4 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \| 2.7 \| 2.5 \| 2.4 \|” — Forecast table, Core Consumer Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗	2026-08-13	2.4

Readout

Low: 2.40%
High: 2.40%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Q4/Q4

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 Q4 · Q4/Q4

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2027 Q4“\| 2027 \| 2.5 \| 2.3 \| 2.6 \| 2.6 \| 2.3 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \|” — Inflation table, 2027 Q4/Q4 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.6

Readout

Low: 2.60%
High: 2.60%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Q4/Q4

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 full year · Annual growth

1 institution

Forecasts by report dateUnited States

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
CBO	2027 full year“2027,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.576,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2026-02-01	2.576
CBO	2027 full year“2027,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.377,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2025-09-01	2.377
CBO	2027 full year“2027,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.299,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2025-01-01	2.299
CBO	2027 full year“2027,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.283,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2024-06-01	2.283
CBO	2027 full year“2027,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.276,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2024-02-01	2.276

Readout

Low: 2.58%
High: 2.58%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2028 Q4 · Q4/Q4

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
Philadelphia Fed	2028 Q4“\| 2028 \| 2.4 \| 2.3 \| 2.4 \| 2.4 \| 2.2 \| 2.1 \| 2.1 \| 2.2 \|” — Inflation table, 2028 Q4/Q4 row, Current Core CPI column · source ↗	2026-08-14	2.4

Readout

Low: 2.40%
High: 2.40%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Q4/Q4

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2028 full year · Annual growth

1 institution

Forecasts by report dateUnited States

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
CBO	2028 full year“2028,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.357,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2026-02-01	2.357
CBO	2028 full year“2028,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.256,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2025-09-01	2.256
CBO	2028 full year“2028,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.283,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2025-01-01	2.283

Readout

Low: 2.36%
High: 2.36%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2029 full year · Annual growth

1 institution

Single reported figureUnited States

Institution	Period	Reported	Forecast
CBO	2029 full year“2029,core_cpiu_pct_change,2.278,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_cpiu_pct_change · source ↗	2026-02-01	2.278

Readout

Low: 2.28%
High: 2.28%
Reporting: 1
Basis: Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.