U.S. core PCE inflation

Projected change in PCE prices excluding food and energy.

United States · %63 extracted figures7 institutions4 comparable groups

Revisions on this metric

17 on record
2026-08-26Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized3.18%3.00
2026-02-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.9732.825
2026-02-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth2.9812.879
2026-02-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.2172.444
2026-02-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual growth2.0592.21
2025-09-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.4552.973
2025-09-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth2.1372.981
2025-09-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.0462.217
2025-09-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual growth2.0412.059
2025-01-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual growth2.8732.81
2025-01-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.4372.455
2025-01-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth2.1432.137
2025-01-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.0222.046
2024-06-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual growth2.52.873
2024-06-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.372.437
2024-06-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth2.222.143
2024-06-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.0792.022

2026 Q4 · Q4/Q4

2 institutions
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
2.40%2.80%3.20%CONSENSUSJUN 25JAN 26AUG 26Fannie Mae · 3.2 · 2026-08-13Fed · 2.4 · 2025-06-18Fed 2.4

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
Fannie Mae2026 Q4“| Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 |” — Forecast table, Core PCE Chain Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-133.2
Fed2026 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 |   | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 |   | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 |   |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2026 column · source ↗2025-06-182.4
Readout
Consensus
2.80%
Spread
+0.80%
Low
2.40%
High
3.20%
Reporting
2
Basis
Q4/Q4

2027 Q4 · Q4/Q4

2 institutions
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
2.10%2.15%2.20%CONSENSUSJUN 25JAN 26AUG 26Fannie Mae · 2.2 · 2026-08-13Fed · 2.1 · 2025-06-18Fed 2.1

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
Fannie Mae2027 Q4“| Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 |” — Forecast table, Core PCE Chain Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.2
Fed2027 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 |   | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 |   | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 |   |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2027 column · source ↗2025-06-182.1
Readout
Consensus
2.15%
Spread
+0.10%
Low
2.10%
High
2.20%
Reporting
2
Basis
Q4/Q4

2026 Q4 · Q4/Q4

2 institutions
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
3.20%3.25%3.30%CONSENSUSAUG 26AUG 26SEPT 26NABE · 3.2% · 2026-09-11NABE · 3.2% · 2026-09-10NABE · 3.2% · 2026-09-02NABE · 3.2% · 2026-08-26Philadelphia Fed · 3.3 · 2026-08-14Philadelphia Fed 3.3

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
NABE2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-09-113.2%
NABE2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary, first quoted paragraph · source ↗2026-09-103.2%
NABE2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-09-023.2%
NABE2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-263.2%
Philadelphia Fed2026 Q4“| 2026 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 |” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2026 row, Core PCE Current column · source ↗2026-08-143.3
Readout
Consensus
3.25%
Spread
+0.10%
Low
3.20%
High
3.30%
Reporting
2
Basis
Q4/Q4

2026 Q4 · Quarterly year-over-year

2 institutions
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
3.20%3.25%3.30%CONSENSUSJUL 26JUL 26JUL 26Wells Fargo · 3.2% · 2026-07-30Fannie Mae · 3.3% · 2026-07-10Fannie Mae 3.3%

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
Wells Fargo2026 Q4“Core PCE Deflator | 2026 4Q | 3.2” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-303.2%
Fannie Mae2026 Q4“Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 26.4 | 3.3” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-103.3%
Readout
Consensus
3.25%
Spread
+0.10%
Low
3.20%
High
3.30%
Reporting
2
Basis
Quarterly year-over-year

2023 full year · Annual growth

1 institution
Single reported figureUnited States
InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
CBO2023 full year“2023,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,4.168,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-014.168
Readout
Low
4.17%
High
4.17%
Reporting
1
Basis
Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2024 full year · Annual growth

1 institution
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
2.50%2.81%2.87%CONSENSUSFEB 24JUL 24JAN 25CBO · 2.81 · 2025-01-01CBO · 2.873 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.5 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.5

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
CBO2024 full year“2024,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.81,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.81
CBO2024 full year“2024,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.873,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-012.873
CBO2024 full year“2024,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.5,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.5
Readout
Low
2.81%
High
2.81%
Reporting
1
Basis
Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2025 Q4 · Q4/Q4

1 institution
Single reported figureUnited States
InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
Fed2025 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 |   | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 |   | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 |   |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2025 column · source ↗2025-06-183.1
Readout
Low
3.10%
High
3.10%
Reporting
1
Basis
Q4/Q4

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2025 full year · Annual growth

1 institution
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
2.37%2.83%2.97%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 2.825 · 2026-02-01CBO · 2.973 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.455 · 2025-01-01CBO · 2.437 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.37 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.37

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
CBO2025 full year“2025,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.825,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.825
CBO2025 full year“2025,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.973,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-012.973
CBO2025 full year“2025,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.455,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.455
CBO2025 full year“2025,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.437,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-012.437
CBO2025 full year“2025,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.37,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.37
Readout
Low
2.83%
High
2.83%
Reporting
1
Basis
Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized

1 institution
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
3.00%3.18%CONSENSUSJUL 26AUG 26SEPT 26Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-16Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-15Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-14Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-13Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-12Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-11Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-10Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-09Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-08Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-07Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-06Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-05Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-04Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-03Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-02Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-09-01Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-08-31Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-08-30Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-08-29Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-08-28Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-08-27Cleveland Fed · 3.00 · 2026-08-26Cleveland Fed · 3.18% · 2026-07-27Cleveland Fed 3.18%

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/15 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-163.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/14 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-153.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-143.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-133.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-123.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.24 | 1.91 | 2.47 | 3.00 | 09/10 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-113.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.30 | 1.91 | 2.51 | 3.00 | 09/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-103.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.29 | 1.91 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/08 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-093.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Inflation, quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-083.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-073.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-063.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-053.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.26 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/03 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-043.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.25 | 1.91 | 2.48 | 3.00 | 09/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-033.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.10 | 1.91 | 2.39 | 3.00 | 09/01 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-023.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.05 | 1.91 | 2.36 | 3.00 | 08/31 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-09-013.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-08-313.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-08-303.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-08-293.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.01 | 1.91 | 2.34 | 3.00 | 08/27 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-08-283.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.03 | 1.91 | 2.35 | 3.00 | 08/26 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-08-273.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.03 | 1.91 | 2.35 | 3.00 | 08/26 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗2026-08-263.00
Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“Core PCE · 07/27 · 3.17547838963363” — Historical JSON · 2026:Q3 · Core PCE · July 27 · source ↗2026-07-273.18%
Readout
Low
3.00%
High
3.00%
Reporting
1
Basis
Quarterly annualized

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized

1 institution
Single reported figureUnited States
InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
Philadelphia Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 |” — Inflation projections table, 2026 Q3 row · source ↗2026-08-142.7
Readout
Low
2.70%
High
2.70%
Reporting
1
Basis
Quarterly annualized

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized

1 institution
Single reported figureUnited States
InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
Philadelphia Fed2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Core PCE | Current 2.6” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗2026-05-152.6%
Readout
Low
2.60%
High
2.60%
Reporting
1
Basis
Quarterly annualized

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 Q4 · Quarterly year-over-year

1 institution
Single reported figureUnited States
InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
NABE2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-283.2%
Readout
Low
3.20%
High
3.20%
Reporting
1
Basis
Quarterly year-over-year

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2026 full year · Annual growth

1 institution
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
2.14%2.88%2.98%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 2.879 · 2026-02-01CBO · 2.981 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.137 · 2025-01-01CBO · 2.143 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.22 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.22

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
CBO2026 full year“2026,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.879,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.879
CBO2026 full year“2026,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.981,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-012.981
CBO2026 full year“2026,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.137,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.137
CBO2026 full year“2026,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.143,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-012.143
CBO2026 full year“2026,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.22,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.22
Readout
Low
2.88%
High
2.88%
Reporting
1
Basis
Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 Q4 · Q4/Q4

1 institution
Single reported figureUnited States
InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
Philadelphia Fed2027 Q4“| 2027 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2027 row, Core PCE Current column · source ↗2026-08-142.4
Readout
Low
2.40%
High
2.40%
Reporting
1
Basis
Q4/Q4

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2027 full year · Annual growth

1 institution
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
2.02%2.44%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 2.444 · 2026-02-01CBO · 2.217 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.046 · 2025-01-01CBO · 2.022 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.079 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.079

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
CBO2027 full year“2027,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.444,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.444
CBO2027 full year“2027,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.217,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-012.217
CBO2027 full year“2027,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.046,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.046
CBO2027 full year“2027,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.022,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-012.022
CBO2027 full year“2027,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.079,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.079
Readout
Low
2.44%
High
2.44%
Reporting
1
Basis
Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2028 Q4 · Q4/Q4

1 institution
Single reported figureUnited States
InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
Philadelphia Fed2028 Q4“| 2028 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2028 row, Core PCE Current column · source ↗2026-08-142.2
Readout
Low
2.20%
High
2.20%
Reporting
1
Basis
Q4/Q4

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2028 full year · Annual growth

1 institution
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
2.04%2.21%CONSENSUSJAN 25JUL 25FEB 26CBO · 2.21 · 2026-02-01CBO · 2.059 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.041 · 2025-01-01CBO 2.041

EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
CBO2028 full year“2028,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.21,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.21
CBO2028 full year“2028,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.059,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-012.059
CBO2028 full year“2028,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.041,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.041
Readout
Low
2.21%
High
2.21%
Reporting
1
Basis
Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

2029 full year · Annual growth

1 institution
Single reported figureUnited States
InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
CBO2029 full year“2029,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.096,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.096
Readout
Low
2.10%
High
2.10%
Reporting
1
Basis
Annual growth

One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.