U.S. core PCE inflation
Projected change in PCE prices excluding food and energy.
United States · %63 extracted figures7 institutions4 comparable groups
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 2026 Q4“| Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 |” — Forecast table, Core PCE Chain Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 3.2 |
| Fed | 2026 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 | | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 | |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2026 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 2.4 |
- Consensus
- 2.80%
- Spread
- +0.80%
- Low
- 2.40%
- High
- 3.20%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Q4/Q4
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 2027 Q4“| Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 |” — Forecast table, Core PCE Chain Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 2.2 |
| Fed | 2027 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 | | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 | |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2027 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 2.1 |
- Consensus
- 2.15%
- Spread
- +0.10%
- Low
- 2.10%
- High
- 2.20%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Q4/Q4
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| NABE | 2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 3.2% |
| NABE | 2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary, first quoted paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 3.2% |
| NABE | 2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-02 | 3.2% |
| NABE | 2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-26 | 3.2% |
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q4“| 2026 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 |” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2026 row, Core PCE Current column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 3.3 |
- Consensus
- 3.25%
- Spread
- +0.10%
- Low
- 3.20%
- High
- 3.30%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Q4/Q4
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | 2026 Q4“Core PCE Deflator | 2026 4Q | 3.2” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-07-30 | 3.2% |
| Fannie Mae | 2026 Q4“Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 26.4 | 3.3” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-07-10 | 3.3% |
- Consensus
- 3.25%
- Spread
- +0.10%
- Low
- 3.20%
- High
- 3.30%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Quarterly year-over-year
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2023 full year“2023,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,4.168,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.168 |
- Low
- 4.17%
- High
- 4.17%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual growth
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2024 full year“2024,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.81,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 2.81 |
| CBO | 2024 full year“2024,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.873,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 2.873 |
| CBO | 2024 full year“2024,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.5,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 2.5 |
- Low
- 2.81%
- High
- 2.81%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual growth
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 2025 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 | | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 | |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2025 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 3.1 |
- Low
- 3.10%
- High
- 3.10%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Q4/Q4
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.825,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 2.825 |
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.973,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 2.973 |
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.455,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 2.455 |
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.437,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 2.437 |
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.37,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 2.37 |
- Low
- 2.83%
- High
- 2.83%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual growth
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/15 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-16 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/14 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-15 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-14 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-13 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-12 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.24 | 1.91 | 2.47 | 3.00 | 09/10 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.30 | 1.91 | 2.51 | 3.00 | 09/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.29 | 1.91 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/08 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-09 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Inflation, quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-08 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-07 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-06 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-05 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.26 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/03 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-04 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.25 | 1.91 | 2.48 | 3.00 | 09/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-03 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.10 | 1.91 | 2.39 | 3.00 | 09/01 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-02 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.05 | 1.91 | 2.36 | 3.00 | 08/31 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-09-01 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-08-31 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-08-30 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-08-29 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.01 | 1.91 | 2.34 | 3.00 | 08/27 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.03 | 1.91 | 2.35 | 3.00 | 08/26 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-08-27 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.03 | 1.91 | 2.35 | 3.00 | 08/26 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, Core PCE column · source ↗ | 2026-08-26 | 3.00 |
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“Core PCE · 07/27 · 3.17547838963363” — Historical JSON · 2026:Q3 · Core PCE · July 27 · source ↗ | 2026-07-27 | 3.18% |
- Low
- 3.00%
- High
- 3.00%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly annualized
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 |” — Inflation projections table, 2026 Q3 row · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.7 |
- Low
- 2.70%
- High
- 2.70%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly annualized
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Core PCE | Current 2.6” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 2.6% |
- Low
- 2.60%
- High
- 2.60%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly annualized
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| NABE | 2026 Q4“Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 3.2% |
- Low
- 3.20%
- High
- 3.20%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly year-over-year
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.879,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 2.879 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.981,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 2.981 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.137,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 2.137 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.143,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 2.143 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.22,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 2.22 |
- Low
- 2.88%
- High
- 2.88%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual growth
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2027 Q4“| 2027 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2027 row, Core PCE Current column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.4 |
- Low
- 2.40%
- High
- 2.40%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Q4/Q4
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.444,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 2.444 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.217,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 2.217 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.046,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 2.046 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.022,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 2.022 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.079,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 2.079 |
- Low
- 2.44%
- High
- 2.44%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual growth
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2028 Q4“| 2028 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2028 row, Core PCE Current column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 2.2 |
- Low
- 2.20%
- High
- 2.20%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Q4/Q4
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2028 full year“2028,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.21,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 2.21 |
| CBO | 2028 full year“2028,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.059,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 2.059 |
| CBO | 2028 full year“2028,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.041,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 2.041 |
- Low
- 2.21%
- High
- 2.21%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual growth
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2029 full year“2029,core_pce_price_index_pct_change,2.096,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, core_pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 2.096 |
- Low
- 2.10%
- High
- 2.10%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual growth
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.