U.S. core PCE inflation
Projected change in PCE prices excluding food and energy.
United States · %7 extracted figures5 institutions1 comparable groups
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | 2026 Q4“Core PCE Deflator | 2026 4Q | 3.2” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-07-30 | 3.2% |
| Fannie Mae | 2026 Q4“Core PCE Chain Price Index (ex. Food & Energy) | 26.4 | 3.3” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-07-10 | 3.3% |
Readout
- Consensus
- 3.25%
- Spread
- +0.10%
- Low
- 3.20%
- High
- 3.30%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Quarterly year-over-year
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Core PCE | Current 2.6” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 2.6% |
Readout
- Low
- 2.60%
- High
- 2.60%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly annualized
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“Core PCE · 07/27 · 3.17547838963363” — Historical JSON · 2026:Q3 · Core PCE · July 27 · source ↗ | 2026-07-27 | 3.18% |
Readout
- Low
- 3.18%
- High
- 3.18%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly annualized
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 2025 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 | | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 | |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2025 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 3.1 |
Readout
- Low
- 3.10%
- High
- 3.10%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Q4/Q4
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 2026 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 | | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 | |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2026 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 2.4 |
Readout
- Low
- 2.40%
- High
- 2.40%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Q4/Q4
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 2027 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 | | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 | |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2027 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 2.1 |
Readout
- Low
- 2.10%
- High
- 2.10%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Q4/Q4
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.