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    U.S. employment cost index growth

    Projected change in the employment cost index for wages and salaries, private industry workers.

    United States · %23 extracted figures1 institutions0 comparable groups

    Revisions on this metric

    15 on record
    2026-02-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth3.501→3.471
    2026-02-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth3.181→3.359
    2026-02-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual growth2.965→3.133
    2025-09-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth3.485→3.501
    2025-09-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth3.355→3.416
    2025-09-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth3.204→3.181
    2025-09-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual growth3.099→2.965
    2025-01-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual growth4.138→3.947
    2025-01-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth3.707→3.485
    2025-01-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth3.388→3.355
    2025-01-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth3.222→3.204
    2024-06-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual growth3.875→4.138
    2024-06-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth3.478→3.707
    2024-06-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth3.33→3.388
    2024-06-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth3.164→3.222

    2023 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2023 full year“2023,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,4.631,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-014.631
    Readout
    Low
    4.63%
    High
    4.63%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2024 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.88%3.95%4.14%CONSENSUSFEB 24JUL 24JAN 25CBO · 3.947 · 2025-01-01CBO · 4.138 · 2024-06-01CBO · 3.875 · 2024-02-01CBO 3.875

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2024 full year“2024,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.947,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-013.947
    CBO2024 full year“2024,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,4.138,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-014.138
    CBO2024 full year“2024,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.875,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-013.875
    Readout
    Low
    3.95%
    High
    3.95%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2025 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.47%3.71%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 3.471 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.501 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.485 · 2025-01-01CBO · 3.707 · 2024-06-01CBO · 3.478 · 2024-02-01CBO 3.478

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2025 full year“2025,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.471,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-013.471
    CBO2025 full year“2025,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.501,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-013.501
    CBO2025 full year“2025,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.485,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-013.485
    CBO2025 full year“2025,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.707,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-013.707
    CBO2025 full year“2025,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.478,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-013.478
    Readout
    Low
    3.47%
    High
    3.47%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.33%3.42%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 3.416 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.416 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.355 · 2025-01-01CBO · 3.388 · 2024-06-01CBO · 3.33 · 2024-02-01CBO 3.33

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2026 full year“2026,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.416,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-013.416
    CBO2026 full year“2026,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.416,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-013.416
    CBO2026 full year“2026,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.355,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-013.355
    CBO2026 full year“2026,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.388,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-013.388
    CBO2026 full year“2026,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.33,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-013.33
    Readout
    Low
    3.42%
    High
    3.42%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2027 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.16%3.36%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 3.359 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.181 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.204 · 2025-01-01CBO · 3.222 · 2024-06-01CBO · 3.164 · 2024-02-01CBO 3.164

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2027 full year“2027,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.359,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-013.359
    CBO2027 full year“2027,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.181,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-013.181
    CBO2027 full year“2027,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.204,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-013.204
    CBO2027 full year“2027,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.222,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-013.222
    CBO2027 full year“2027,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.164,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-013.164
    Readout
    Low
    3.36%
    High
    3.36%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2028 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    2.96%3.13%CONSENSUSJAN 25JUL 25FEB 26CBO · 3.133 · 2026-02-01CBO · 2.965 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.099 · 2025-01-01CBO 3.099

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2028 full year“2028,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.133,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-013.133
    CBO2028 full year“2028,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,2.965,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-012.965
    CBO2028 full year“2028,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.099,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-013.099
    Readout
    Low
    3.13%
    High
    3.13%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2029 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2029 full year“2029,eci_wages_salaries_pct_change,3.027,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, eci_wages_salaries_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-013.027
    Readout
    Low
    3.03%
    High
    3.03%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.