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    Federal funds rate

    Projected federal funds target, midpoint, or quarterly average as labeled.

    United States · %117 extracted figures6 institutions5 comparable groups

    Revisions on this metric

    75 on record
    2026-09-11Fannie Mae 2026 Q4 · Quarterly average3.6%→4.0
    2026-09-11Fannie Mae 2026 full year · Annual average3.6→3.7
    2026-09-11Fannie Mae 2027 full year · Annual average3.6→4.1
    2026-02-01CBO 2025 Q3 · Quarterly average4.33→4.293
    2026-02-01CBO 2025 Q4 · Quarterly average3.996→3.869
    2026-02-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual average4.246→4.205
    2026-02-01CBO 2026 Q1 · Quarterly average3.663→3.639
    2026-02-01CBO 2026 Q2 · Quarterly average3.58→3.389
    2026-02-01CBO 2026 Q3 · Quarterly average3.58→3.389
    2026-02-01CBO 2026 Q4 · Quarterly average3.58→3.389
    2026-02-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual average3.6→3.452
    2026-02-01CBO 2027 Q1 · Quarterly average3.413→3.389
    2026-02-01CBO 2027 Q2 · Quarterly average3.33→3.389
    2026-02-01CBO 2027 Q3 · Quarterly average3.33→3.389
    2026-02-01CBO 2027 Q4 · Quarterly average3.33→3.39
    2026-02-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual average3.35→3.389
    2026-02-01CBO 2028 Q1 · Quarterly average3.33→3.39
    2026-02-01CBO 2028 Q2 · Quarterly average3.33→3.39
    2026-02-01CBO 2028 Q3 · Quarterly average3.33→3.39
    2026-02-01CBO 2028 Q4 · Quarterly average3.33→3.39
    2026-02-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual average3.33→3.39
    2025-09-01CBO 2025 Q3 · Quarterly average3.913→4.33
    2025-09-01CBO 2025 Q4 · Quarterly average3.746→3.996
    2025-09-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual average4.017→4.246
    2025-09-01CBO 2026 Q1 · Quarterly average3.638→3.663
    2025-09-01CBO 2026 Q2 · Quarterly average3.512→3.58
    2025-09-01CBO 2026 Q3 · Quarterly average3.421→3.58
    2025-09-01CBO 2026 Q4 · Quarterly average3.365→3.58
    2025-09-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual average3.484→3.6
    2025-09-01CBO 2027 Q1 · Quarterly average3.34→3.413
    2025-09-01CBO 2027 Q2 · Quarterly average3.339→3.33
    2025-09-01CBO 2027 Q3 · Quarterly average3.349→3.33
    2025-09-01CBO 2027 Q4 · Quarterly average3.363→3.33
    2025-09-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual average3.348→3.35
    2025-09-01CBO 2028 Q1 · Quarterly average3.364→3.33
    2025-09-01CBO 2028 Q2 · Quarterly average3.361→3.33
    2025-09-01CBO 2028 Q3 · Quarterly average3.356→3.33
    2025-09-01CBO 2028 Q4 · Quarterly average3.35→3.33
    2025-09-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual average3.358→3.33
    2025-01-01CBO 2024 Q4 · Quarterly average5.331→4.649
    2025-01-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual average5.33→5.143
    2025-01-01CBO 2025 Q1 · Quarterly average5.209→4.329
    2025-01-01CBO 2025 Q2 · Quarterly average4.96→4.079
    2025-01-01CBO 2025 Q3 · Quarterly average4.71→3.913
    2025-01-01CBO 2025 Q4 · Quarterly average4.46→3.746
    2025-01-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual average4.835→4.017
    2025-01-01CBO 2026 Q1 · Quarterly average4.21→3.638
    2025-01-01CBO 2026 Q2 · Quarterly average3.96→3.512
    2025-01-01CBO 2026 Q3 · Quarterly average3.71→3.421
    2025-01-01CBO 2026 Q4 · Quarterly average3.46→3.365
    2025-01-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual average3.835→3.484
    2025-01-01CBO 2027 Q1 · Quarterly average3.38→3.34
    2025-01-01CBO 2027 Q2 · Quarterly average3.288→3.339
    2025-01-01CBO 2027 Q3 · Quarterly average3.211→3.349
    2025-01-01CBO 2027 Q4 · Quarterly average3.146→3.363
    2025-01-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual average3.256→3.348
    2024-06-01CBO 2024 Q2 · Quarterly average5.208→5.33
    2024-06-01CBO 2024 Q3 · Quarterly average4.958→5.33
    2024-06-01CBO 2024 Q4 · Quarterly average4.708→5.331
    2024-06-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual average5.062→5.33
    2024-06-01CBO 2025 Q1 · Quarterly average4.458→5.209
    2024-06-01CBO 2025 Q2 · Quarterly average4.208→4.96
    2024-06-01CBO 2025 Q3 · Quarterly average3.958→4.71
    2024-06-01CBO 2025 Q4 · Quarterly average3.708→4.46
    2024-06-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual average4.083→4.835
    2024-06-01CBO 2026 Q1 · Quarterly average3.458→4.21
    2024-06-01CBO 2026 Q2 · Quarterly average3.374→3.96
    2024-06-01CBO 2026 Q3 · Quarterly average3.291→3.71
    2024-06-01CBO 2026 Q4 · Quarterly average3.125→3.46
    2024-06-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual average3.312→3.835
    2024-06-01CBO 2027 Q1 · Quarterly average3.124→3.38
    2024-06-01CBO 2027 Q2 · Quarterly average2.958→3.288
    2024-06-01CBO 2027 Q3 · Quarterly average2.874→3.211
    2024-06-01CBO 2027 Q4 · Quarterly average2.874→3.146
    2024-06-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual average2.958→3.256

    2027 full year · Annual average

    2 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    2.96%3.74%4.10%CONSENSUSFEB 24MAY 25SEPT 26Fannie Mae · 4.1 · 2026-09-11Fannie Mae · 3.6 · 2026-08-13CBO · 3.389 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.35 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.348 · 2025-01-01CBO · 3.256 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.958 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.958

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2027 full year“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 |” — Table, Federal Funds Rate row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-114.1
    Fannie Mae2027 full year“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 |” — Forecast table, Federal Funds Rate, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-133.6
    CBO2027 full year“2027,fed_funds_rate,3.389,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.389
    CBO2027 full year“2027,fed_funds_rate,3.35,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.35
    CBO2027 full year“2027,fed_funds_rate,3.348,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.348
    CBO2027 full year“2027,fed_funds_rate,3.256,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-013.256
    CBO2027 full year“2027,fed_funds_rate,2.958,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-012.958
    Readout
    Consensus
    3.74%
    Spread
    +0.71%
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    4.10%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Annual average

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly average

    2 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.13%3.69%4.00%CONSENSUSFEB 24MAY 25SEPT 26Fannie Mae · 4.0 · 2026-09-11Fannie Mae · 3.6% · 2026-07-10CBO · 3.389 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.58 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.365 · 2025-01-01CBO · 3.46 · 2024-06-01CBO · 3.125 · 2024-02-01CBO 3.125

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2026 Q4“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 |” — Table, Federal Funds Rate row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗2026-09-114.0
    Fannie Mae2026 Q4“Federal Funds Rate | 26.4 | 3.6” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-103.6%
    CBO2026 Q4“2026q4,fed_funds_rate,3.389,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.389
    CBO2026 Q4“2026q4,fed_funds_rate,3.58,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.58
    CBO2026 Q4“2026q4,fed_funds_rate,3.365,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.365
    CBO2026 Q4“2026q4,fed_funds_rate,3.46,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-013.46
    CBO2026 Q4“2026q4,fed_funds_rate,3.125,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-013.125
    Readout
    Consensus
    3.69%
    Spread
    +0.61%
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    4.00%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    2026 Q3 · Quarterly average

    2 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.29%3.54%3.71%CONSENSUSFEB 24MAY 25SEPT 26Fannie Mae · 3.7 · 2026-09-11CBO · 3.389 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.58 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.421 · 2025-01-01CBO · 3.71 · 2024-06-01CBO · 3.291 · 2024-02-01CBO 3.291

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2026 Q3“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 |” — Table, Federal Funds Rate row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗2026-09-113.7
    CBO2026 Q3“2026q3,fed_funds_rate,3.389,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.389
    CBO2026 Q3“2026q3,fed_funds_rate,3.58,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.58
    CBO2026 Q3“2026q3,fed_funds_rate,3.421,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.421
    CBO2026 Q3“2026q3,fed_funds_rate,3.71,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-013.71
    CBO2026 Q3“2026q3,fed_funds_rate,3.291,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-013.291
    Readout
    Consensus
    3.54%
    Spread
    +0.31%
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.70%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    2026 full year · Annual average

    2 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.31%3.58%3.83%CONSENSUSFEB 24MAY 25SEPT 26Fannie Mae · 3.7 · 2026-09-11Fannie Mae · 3.6 · 2026-08-13CBO · 3.452 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.6 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.484 · 2025-01-01CBO · 3.835 · 2024-06-01CBO · 3.312 · 2024-02-01CBO 3.312

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2026 full year“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 |” — Table, Federal Funds Rate row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-113.7
    Fannie Mae2026 full year“| Federal Funds Rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 |” — Forecast table, Federal Funds Rate, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-133.6
    CBO2026 full year“2026,fed_funds_rate,3.452,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.452
    CBO2026 full year“2026,fed_funds_rate,3.6,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.6
    CBO2026 full year“2026,fed_funds_rate,3.484,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.484
    CBO2026 full year“2026,fed_funds_rate,3.835,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-013.835
    CBO2026 full year“2026,fed_funds_rate,3.312,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-013.312
    Readout
    Consensus
    3.58%
    Spread
    +0.25%
    Low
    3.45%
    High
    3.70%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Annual average

    2026 Q4 · Quarter-end, upper bound

    2 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.75%CONSENSUSJUL 26JUL 26JUL 26Wells Fargo · 3.75% · 2026-07-30RBC · 3.75% · 2026-07-13RBC 3.75%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Wells Fargo2026 Q4“Federal Funds Target Rate (j) | 2026 4Q | 3.75” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-303.75%
    RBC2026 Q4“Fed Funds Rate (%, eop, top of range) | 2026 Q4 | 3.75” — U.S. Forecast Detail · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-133.75%
    Readout
    Consensus
    3.75%
    Spread
    0.00%
    Low
    3.75%
    High
    3.75%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Quarter-end, upper bound

    2023 Q4 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2023 Q4“2023q4,fed_funds_rate,5.345,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-015.345
    Readout
    Low
    5.34%
    High
    5.34%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2023 full year · Annual average

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2023 full year“2023,fed_funds_rate,5.027,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-015.027
    Readout
    Low
    5.03%
    High
    5.03%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2024 Q1 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2024 Q1“2024q1,fed_funds_rate,5.375,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-015.375
    Readout
    Low
    5.38%
    High
    5.38%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2024 Q2 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    5.21%5.33%CONSENSUSFEB 24APR 24JUN 24CBO · 5.33 · 2024-06-01CBO · 5.208 · 2024-02-01CBO 5.208

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2024 Q2“2024q2,fed_funds_rate,5.33,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-015.33
    CBO2024 Q2“2024q2,fed_funds_rate,5.208,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-015.208
    Readout
    Low
    5.33%
    High
    5.33%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2024 Q3 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    4.96%5.33%CONSENSUSFEB 24APR 24JUN 24CBO · 5.33 · 2024-06-01CBO · 4.958 · 2024-02-01CBO 4.958

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2024 Q3“2024q3,fed_funds_rate,5.33,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-015.33
    CBO2024 Q3“2024q3,fed_funds_rate,4.958,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-014.958
    Readout
    Low
    5.33%
    High
    5.33%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2024 Q4 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    4.65%5.33%CONSENSUSFEB 24JUL 24JAN 25CBO · 4.649 · 2025-01-01CBO · 5.331 · 2024-06-01CBO · 4.708 · 2024-02-01CBO 4.708

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2024 Q4“2024q4,fed_funds_rate,4.649,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-014.649
    CBO2024 Q4“2024q4,fed_funds_rate,5.331,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-015.331
    CBO2024 Q4“2024q4,fed_funds_rate,4.708,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-014.708
    Readout
    Low
    4.65%
    High
    4.65%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2024 full year · Annual average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    5.06%5.14%5.33%CONSENSUSFEB 24JUL 24JAN 25CBO · 5.143 · 2025-01-01CBO · 5.33 · 2024-06-01CBO · 5.062 · 2024-02-01CBO 5.062

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2024 full year“2024,fed_funds_rate,5.143,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-015.143
    CBO2024 full year“2024,fed_funds_rate,5.33,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-015.33
    CBO2024 full year“2024,fed_funds_rate,5.062,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-015.062
    Readout
    Low
    5.14%
    High
    5.14%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2025 Q1 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    4.33%5.21%CONSENSUSFEB 24JUL 24JAN 25CBO · 4.329 · 2025-01-01CBO · 5.209 · 2024-06-01CBO · 4.458 · 2024-02-01CBO 4.458

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2025 Q1“2025q1,fed_funds_rate,4.329,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-014.329
    CBO2025 Q1“2025q1,fed_funds_rate,5.209,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-015.209
    CBO2025 Q1“2025q1,fed_funds_rate,4.458,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-014.458
    Readout
    Low
    4.33%
    High
    4.33%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2025 Q2 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    4.08%4.96%CONSENSUSFEB 24JUL 24JAN 25CBO · 4.079 · 2025-01-01CBO · 4.96 · 2024-06-01CBO · 4.208 · 2024-02-01CBO 4.208

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2025 Q2“2025q2,fed_funds_rate,4.079,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-014.079
    CBO2025 Q2“2025q2,fed_funds_rate,4.96,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-014.96
    CBO2025 Q2“2025q2,fed_funds_rate,4.208,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-014.208
    Readout
    Low
    4.08%
    High
    4.08%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2025 Q3 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.91%4.29%4.71%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 4.293 · 2026-02-01CBO · 4.33 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.913 · 2025-01-01CBO · 4.71 · 2024-06-01CBO · 3.958 · 2024-02-01CBO 3.958

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2025 Q3“2025q3,fed_funds_rate,4.293,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-014.293
    CBO2025 Q3“2025q3,fed_funds_rate,4.33,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-014.33
    CBO2025 Q3“2025q3,fed_funds_rate,3.913,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.913
    CBO2025 Q3“2025q3,fed_funds_rate,4.71,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-014.71
    CBO2025 Q3“2025q3,fed_funds_rate,3.958,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-013.958
    Readout
    Low
    4.29%
    High
    4.29%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2025 Q4 · Quarter-end

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fed2025 Q4“| Federal funds rate | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.9–4.4 | 3.1–3.9 | 2.9–3.6 | 2.6–3.6 | 3.6–4.4 | 2.6–4.1 | 2.6–3.9 | 2.5–3.9 |” — Table 1, Federal funds rate, median row, 2025 column · source ↗2025-06-183.9
    Readout
    Low
    3.90%
    High
    3.90%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarter-end

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2025 Q4 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.71%3.87%4.46%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 3.869 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.996 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.746 · 2025-01-01CBO · 4.46 · 2024-06-01CBO · 3.708 · 2024-02-01CBO 3.708

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2025 Q4“2025q4,fed_funds_rate,3.869,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.869
    CBO2025 Q4“2025q4,fed_funds_rate,3.996,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.996
    CBO2025 Q4“2025q4,fed_funds_rate,3.746,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.746
    CBO2025 Q4“2025q4,fed_funds_rate,4.46,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-014.46
    CBO2025 Q4“2025q4,fed_funds_rate,3.708,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-013.708
    Readout
    Low
    3.87%
    High
    3.87%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2025 full year · Annual average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    4.02%4.21%4.83%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 4.205 · 2026-02-01CBO · 4.246 · 2025-09-01CBO · 4.017 · 2025-01-01CBO · 4.835 · 2024-06-01CBO · 4.083 · 2024-02-01CBO 4.083

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2025 full year“2025,fed_funds_rate,4.205,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-014.205
    CBO2025 full year“2025,fed_funds_rate,4.246,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-014.246
    CBO2025 full year“2025,fed_funds_rate,4.017,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-014.017
    CBO2025 full year“2025,fed_funds_rate,4.835,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-014.835
    CBO2025 full year“2025,fed_funds_rate,4.083,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-014.083
    Readout
    Low
    4.21%
    High
    4.21%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 Q1 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.46%3.64%4.21%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 3.639 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.663 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.638 · 2025-01-01CBO · 4.21 · 2024-06-01CBO · 3.458 · 2024-02-01CBO 3.458

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2026 Q1“2026q1,fed_funds_rate,3.639,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.639
    CBO2026 Q1“2026q1,fed_funds_rate,3.663,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.663
    CBO2026 Q1“2026q1,fed_funds_rate,3.638,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.638
    CBO2026 Q1“2026q1,fed_funds_rate,4.21,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-014.21
    CBO2026 Q1“2026q1,fed_funds_rate,3.458,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-013.458
    Readout
    Low
    3.64%
    High
    3.64%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 Q2 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.37%3.39%3.96%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 3.389 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.58 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.512 · 2025-01-01CBO · 3.96 · 2024-06-01CBO · 3.374 · 2024-02-01CBO 3.374

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2026 Q2“2026q2,fed_funds_rate,3.389,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.389
    CBO2026 Q2“2026q2,fed_funds_rate,3.58,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.58
    CBO2026 Q2“2026q2,fed_funds_rate,3.512,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.512
    CBO2026 Q2“2026q2,fed_funds_rate,3.96,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-013.96
    CBO2026 Q2“2026q2,fed_funds_rate,3.374,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-013.374
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 Q4 · Quarter-end

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fed2026 Q4“| Federal funds rate | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.9–4.4 | 3.1–3.9 | 2.9–3.6 | 2.6–3.6 | 3.6–4.4 | 2.6–4.1 | 2.6–3.9 | 2.5–3.9 |” — Table 1, Federal funds rate, median row, 2026 column · source ↗2025-06-183.6
    Readout
    Low
    3.60%
    High
    3.60%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarter-end

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2027 Q1 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.12%3.39%3.41%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 3.389 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.413 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.34 · 2025-01-01CBO · 3.38 · 2024-06-01CBO · 3.124 · 2024-02-01CBO 3.124

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2027 Q1“2027q1,fed_funds_rate,3.389,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.389
    CBO2027 Q1“2027q1,fed_funds_rate,3.413,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.413
    CBO2027 Q1“2027q1,fed_funds_rate,3.34,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.34
    CBO2027 Q1“2027q1,fed_funds_rate,3.38,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-013.38
    CBO2027 Q1“2027q1,fed_funds_rate,3.124,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-013.124
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2027 Q2 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    2.96%3.39%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 3.389 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.33 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.339 · 2025-01-01CBO · 3.288 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.958 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.958

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2027 Q2“2027q2,fed_funds_rate,3.389,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.389
    CBO2027 Q2“2027q2,fed_funds_rate,3.33,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.33
    CBO2027 Q2“2027q2,fed_funds_rate,3.339,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.339
    CBO2027 Q2“2027q2,fed_funds_rate,3.288,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-013.288
    CBO2027 Q2“2027q2,fed_funds_rate,2.958,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-012.958
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2027 Q3 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    2.87%3.39%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 3.389 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.33 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.349 · 2025-01-01CBO · 3.211 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.874 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.874

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2027 Q3“2027q3,fed_funds_rate,3.389,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.389
    CBO2027 Q3“2027q3,fed_funds_rate,3.33,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.33
    CBO2027 Q3“2027q3,fed_funds_rate,3.349,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.349
    CBO2027 Q3“2027q3,fed_funds_rate,3.211,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-013.211
    CBO2027 Q3“2027q3,fed_funds_rate,2.874,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-012.874
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2027 Q4 · Quarter-end

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fed2027 Q4“| Federal funds rate | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.9–4.4 | 3.1–3.9 | 2.9–3.6 | 2.6–3.6 | 3.6–4.4 | 2.6–4.1 | 2.6–3.9 | 2.5–3.9 |” — Table 1, Federal funds rate, median row, 2027 column · source ↗2025-06-183.4
    Readout
    Low
    3.40%
    High
    3.40%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarter-end

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2027 Q4 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    2.87%3.39%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 3.39 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.33 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.363 · 2025-01-01CBO · 3.146 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.874 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.874

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2027 Q4“2027q4,fed_funds_rate,3.39,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.39
    CBO2027 Q4“2027q4,fed_funds_rate,3.33,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.33
    CBO2027 Q4“2027q4,fed_funds_rate,3.363,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.363
    CBO2027 Q4“2027q4,fed_funds_rate,3.146,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-06-013.146
    CBO2027 Q4“2027q4,fed_funds_rate,2.874,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2024-02-012.874
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2028 Q1 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.33%3.39%CONSENSUSJAN 25JUL 25FEB 26CBO · 3.39 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.33 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.364 · 2025-01-01CBO 3.364

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2028 Q1“2028q1,fed_funds_rate,3.39,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.39
    CBO2028 Q1“2028q1,fed_funds_rate,3.33,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.33
    CBO2028 Q1“2028q1,fed_funds_rate,3.364,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.364
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2028 Q2 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.33%3.39%CONSENSUSJAN 25JUL 25FEB 26CBO · 3.39 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.33 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.361 · 2025-01-01CBO 3.361

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2028 Q2“2028q2,fed_funds_rate,3.39,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.39
    CBO2028 Q2“2028q2,fed_funds_rate,3.33,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.33
    CBO2028 Q2“2028q2,fed_funds_rate,3.361,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.361
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2028 Q3 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.33%3.39%CONSENSUSJAN 25JUL 25FEB 26CBO · 3.39 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.33 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.356 · 2025-01-01CBO 3.356

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2028 Q3“2028q3,fed_funds_rate,3.39,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.39
    CBO2028 Q3“2028q3,fed_funds_rate,3.33,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.33
    CBO2028 Q3“2028q3,fed_funds_rate,3.356,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.356
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2028 Q4 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.33%3.39%CONSENSUSJAN 25JUL 25FEB 26CBO · 3.39 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.33 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.35 · 2025-01-01CBO 3.35

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2028 Q4“2028q4,fed_funds_rate,3.39,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.39
    CBO2028 Q4“2028q4,fed_funds_rate,3.33,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.33
    CBO2028 Q4“2028q4,fed_funds_rate,3.35,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.35
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2028 full year · Annual average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.33%3.39%CONSENSUSJAN 25JUL 25FEB 26CBO · 3.39 · 2026-02-01CBO · 3.33 · 2025-09-01CBO · 3.358 · 2025-01-01CBO 3.358

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2028 full year“2028,fed_funds_rate,3.39,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.39
    CBO2028 full year“2028,fed_funds_rate,3.33,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-09-013.33
    CBO2028 full year“2028,fed_funds_rate,3.358,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2025-01-013.358
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2029 Q1 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2029 Q1“2029q1,fed_funds_rate,3.389,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.389
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2029 Q2 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2029 Q2“2029q2,fed_funds_rate,3.389,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.389
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2029 Q3 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2029 Q3“2029q3,fed_funds_rate,3.389,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.389
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2029 Q4 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2029 Q4“2029q4,fed_funds_rate,3.388,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.388
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2029 full year · Annual average

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2029 full year“2029,fed_funds_rate,3.389,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, fed_funds_rate · source ↗2026-02-013.389
    Readout
    Low
    3.39%
    High
    3.39%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    December 2026 FOMC · Median modal target midpoint

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    New York FedDecember 2026 FOMC“Federal Funds Target Rate or Range Modal Forecasts | Dec. 8-9 | Median 3.63%” — Question 2a · Page 6 · source ↗2026-07-083.63%
    Readout
    Low
    3.63%
    High
    3.63%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Median modal target midpoint

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.