Probability of negative U.S. GDP growth
Survey estimate of the probability that real GDP contracts in a target quarter.
United States · %1 extracted figures1 institutions0 comparable groups
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Risk of a Negative Quarter (%) | New 24.5” — Risk of a Negative Quarter · 2026:Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 24.5% |
Readout
- Low
- 24.50%
- High
- 24.50%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Survey mean probability
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.