Probability of negative U.S. GDP growth
Survey estimate of the probability that real GDP contracts in a target quarter.
United States · %6 extracted figures1 institutions0 comparable groups
Revisions on this metric
1 on record2026 Q3 · Survey mean probability
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q3“The forecasters have reduced their estimate of the risk of a downturn in real GDP this quarter to 13.3 percent, compared with the estimate of 25.1 percent in the previous survey.” — Risk of a Negative Quarter paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 13.3 percent |
Readout
- Low
- 13.30%
- High
- 13.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Survey mean probability
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2026 Q4 · Survey mean probability
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 24.5 | 20.0 |” — Risk of a Negative Quarter table, 2026:Q4 row, New column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 20.0 |
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Risk of a Negative Quarter (%) | New 24.5” — Risk of a Negative Quarter · 2026:Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 24.5% |
Readout
- Low
- 20.00%
- High
- 20.00%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Survey mean probability
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2027 Q1 · Survey mean probability
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2027 Q1“| 2027:Q1 | 25.7 | 21.5 |” — Risk of a Negative Quarter table, 2027:Q1 row, New column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 21.5 |
Readout
- Low
- 21.50%
- High
- 21.50%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Survey mean probability
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2027 Q2 · Survey mean probability
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2027 Q2“| 2027:Q2 | 23.0 | 22.0 |” — Risk of a Negative Quarter table, 2027:Q2 row, New column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 22.0 |
Readout
- Low
- 22.00%
- High
- 22.00%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Survey mean probability
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2027 Q3 · Survey mean probability
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2027 Q3“| 2027:Q3 | N.A. | 20.8 |” — Risk of a Negative Quarter table, 2027:Q3 row, New column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 20.8 |
Readout
- Low
- 20.80%
- High
- 20.80%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Survey mean probability
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.