PLANETARYINSIGHTS

    Real GDP growth 2026 full year 2.1 2.4 ▲ EIAReal GDP growth 2027 full year 2.6 2.8 ▲ EIAHeadline PCE inflation 2026 Q4 3.95 3.94 ▼ Cleveland FedHeadline CPI inflation 2026 Q4 4.24 4.40 ▲ Cleveland FedCore CPI inflation 2026 Q4 3.02 3.40 ▲ Cleveland FedCore PCE inflation 2026 Q4 3.33 3.38 ▲ Cleveland Fed

    U.S. one-year inflation expectation

    Median expected inflation over the next year among surveyed U.S. households.

    United States · %40 extracted figures1 institutions0 comparable groups

    Revisions on this metric

    2 on record
    2026-10-15New York Fed 1 year ahead · Median household expectation3.6 percent→3.9 percent
    2026-08-26New York Fed 1 year ahead · Median household expectation3.5%→3.6 percent

    1 year ahead · Median household expectation

    United States · 1 institution
    3.50%3.90%CONSENSUSJUN 26AUG 26NOV 26New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-11-11New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-11-10New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-11-09New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-11-08New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-11-07New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-11-06New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-11-05New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-11-04New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-11-03New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-11-02New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-11-01New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-31New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-30New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-29New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-28New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-27New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-26New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-25New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-24New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-23New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-22New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-21New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-20New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-19New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-18New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-17New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-16New York Fed · 3.9 percent · 2026-10-15New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-22New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-18New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-14New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-13New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-06New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-05New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-04New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-03New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-01New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-08-27New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-08-26New York Fed · 3.5% · 2026-06-08New York Fed 3.5%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations were unchanged at the one-, three-, and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.9 percent, 3.3 percent, and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Key findings, first bullet · source ↗2026-11-113.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations were unchanged at the one-, three-, and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.9 percent, 3.3 percent, and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Key findings, first bullet · source ↗2026-11-103.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations were unchanged at the one-, three-, and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.9 percent, 3.3 percent, and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Key findings, first bullet · source ↗2026-11-093.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Survey summary, first bullet · source ↗2026-11-083.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Key findings, first bullet · source ↗2026-11-073.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under the September Survey summary · source ↗2026-11-063.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet, first sentence · source ↗2026-11-053.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet, first sentence · source ↗2026-11-043.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under the September Survey headline · source ↗2026-11-033.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Summary bullet 1, one-year-ahead inflation expectation · source ↗2026-11-023.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey summary · source ↗2026-11-013.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey summary, one-year horizon · source ↗2026-10-313.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Bullet 1, first sentence · source ↗2026-10-303.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet, under the September Survey headline · source ↗2026-10-293.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey heading · source ↗2026-10-283.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Bullet 1, first paragraph under the September Survey headline · source ↗2026-10-273.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey summary · source ↗2026-10-263.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey heading · source ↗2026-10-253.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey heading · source ↗2026-10-243.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey summary · source ↗2026-10-233.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Summary bullet 1, one-year horizon · source ↗2026-10-223.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey headline · source ↗2026-10-213.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under September Survey heading · source ↗2026-10-203.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Summary bullets, first bullet · source ↗2026-10-193.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet under the September Survey summary · source ↗2026-10-183.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet, one-year-ahead median inflation expectation · source ↗2026-10-173.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — First bullet, median one-year-horizon inflation expectation · source ↗2026-10-163.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.” — Bullet 1, first bullet of September Survey summary · source ↗2026-10-153.9 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.” — Main survey results, inflation expectations · source ↗2026-09-223.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.” — Main survey results, Inflation · source ↗2026-09-183.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.” — August Survey summary, first bullet · source ↗2026-09-143.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.” — Main survey results, inflation bullet · source ↗2026-09-133.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, July Survey bullet points · source ↗2026-09-063.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, inflation expectations bullet · source ↗2026-09-053.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, July Survey bullet points · source ↗2026-09-043.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main Survey Results, July Survey summary · source ↗2026-09-033.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, July Survey highlights · source ↗2026-09-013.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — July Survey, first bullet · source ↗2026-08-273.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, inflation expectations bullet · source ↗2026-08-263.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon” — Inflation · source ↗2026-06-083.5%

    Readout

    Low
    3.90%
    High
    3.90%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Median household expectation

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.