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    U.S. one-year inflation expectation

    Median expected inflation over the next year among surveyed U.S. households.

    United States · %10 extracted figures1 institutions0 comparable groups

    Revisions on this metric

    1 on record
    2026-08-26New York Fed 1 year ahead · Median household expectation3.5%→3.6 percent

    1 year ahead · Median household expectation

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.50%3.60%CONSENSUSJUN 26JUL 26SEPT 26New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-14New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-13New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-06New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-05New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-04New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-03New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-09-01New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-08-27New York Fed · 3.6 percent · 2026-08-26New York Fed · 3.5% · 2026-06-08New York Fed 3.5%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.” — August Survey summary, first bullet · source ↗2026-09-143.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.” — Main survey results, inflation bullet · source ↗2026-09-133.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, July Survey bullet points · source ↗2026-09-063.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, inflation expectations bullet · source ↗2026-09-053.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, July Survey bullet points · source ↗2026-09-043.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main Survey Results, July Survey summary · source ↗2026-09-033.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, July Survey highlights · source ↗2026-09-013.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — July Survey, first bullet · source ↗2026-08-273.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in July, while remaining unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.” — Main survey results, inflation expectations bullet · source ↗2026-08-263.6 percent
    New York Fed1 year ahead“Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon” — Inflation · source ↗2026-06-083.5%
    Readout
    Low
    3.60%
    High
    3.60%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Median household expectation

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.