U.S. headline PCE inflation
Projected change in the personal consumption expenditures price index.
United States · %8 extracted figures5 institutions1 comparable groups
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | 2026 Q4“PCE Deflator | 2026 4Q | 3.4” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-07-30 | 3.4% |
| Fannie Mae | 2026 Q4“PCE Chain Price Index | 26.4 | 3.5” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-07-10 | 3.5% |
Readout
- Consensus
- 3.45%
- Spread
- +0.10%
- Low
- 3.40%
- High
- 3.50%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Quarterly year-over-year
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 2025 Q4“PCE inflation 3.0” — Table 1 · 2025 median · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 3.0% |
| Fed | 2025 Q4“PCE inflation 2.7” — Table 1, page 2 · 2025 median · source ↗ | 2025-03-19 | 2.7% |
Readout
- Low
- 3.00%
- High
- 3.00%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Q4/Q4
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Headline PCE | Current 2.4” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 2.4% |
Readout
- Low
- 2.40%
- High
- 2.40%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly annualized
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 2026 Q3“PCE Inflation · 07/27 · 2.58379591689637” — Historical JSON · 2026:Q3 · PCE Inflation · July 27 · source ↗ | 2026-07-27 | 2.58% |
Readout
- Low
- 2.58%
- High
- 2.58%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly annualized
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 2026 Q4“| PCE inflation | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8–3.2 | 2.3–2.6 | 2.0–2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5–3.3 | 2.1–3.1 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0 |” — Table 1, PCE inflation, median row, 2026 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 2.4 |
Readout
- Low
- 2.40%
- High
- 2.40%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Q4/Q4
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 2027 Q4“| PCE inflation | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8–3.2 | 2.3–2.6 | 2.0–2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5–3.3 | 2.1–3.1 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0 |” — Table 1, PCE inflation, median row, 2027 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 2.1 |
Readout
- Low
- 2.10%
- High
- 2.10%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Q4/Q4
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.