PlanetaryInsights

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    U.S. headline PCE inflation

    Projected change in the personal consumption expenditures price index.

    United States · %75 extracted figures7 institutions6 comparable groups

    Revisions on this metric

    29 on record
    2026-09-17Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.44→2.50
    2026-09-12Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.47→2.44
    2026-09-11Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.51→2.47
    2026-09-10Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.50→2.51
    2026-09-09Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.49→2.50
    2026-09-04Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.48→2.49
    2026-09-03Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.39→2.48
    2026-09-02Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.36→2.39
    2026-09-01Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.37→2.36
    2026-08-29Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.34→2.37
    2026-08-28Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.35→2.34
    2026-08-26Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.58%→2.35
    2026-02-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.74→2.62
    2026-02-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth2.725→2.748
    2026-02-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.088→2.409
    2026-02-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual growth1.995→2.19
    2025-09-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.191→2.74
    2025-09-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth2.12→2.725
    2025-09-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.025→2.088
    2025-09-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual growth2.0→1.995
    2025-06-18Fed 2025 Q4 · Q4/Q42.7%→3.0%
    2025-01-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual growth2.666→2.496
    2025-01-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.196→2.191
    2025-01-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth1.991→2.12
    2025-01-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth1.912→2.025
    2024-06-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual growth2.202→2.666
    2024-06-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.208→2.196
    2024-06-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth2.114→1.991
    2024-06-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.011→1.912

    2026 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    2 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    2.40%2.95%3.50%CONSENSUSJUN 25JAN 26AUG 26Fannie Mae · 3.5 · 2026-08-13Fed · 2.4 · 2025-06-18Fed 2.4

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2026 Q4“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |” — Forecast table, PCE Chain Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-133.5
    Fed2026 Q4“| PCE inflation | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8–3.2 | 2.3–2.6 | 2.0–2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5–3.3 | 2.1–3.1 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0 |” — Table 1, PCE inflation, median row, 2026 column · source ↗2025-06-182.4
    Readout
    Consensus
    2.95%
    Spread
    +1.10%
    Low
    2.40%
    High
    3.50%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    2026 full year · Annual growth

    2 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    1.99%3.27%3.80%CONSENSUSFEB 24MAY 25SEPT 26Fannie Mae · 3.8 · 2026-09-11CBO · 2.748 · 2026-02-01CBO · 2.725 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.12 · 2025-01-01CBO · 1.991 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.114 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.114

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2026 full year“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 |” — Table, PCE Chain Price Index row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-113.8
    CBO2026 full year“2026,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.748,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.748
    CBO2026 full year“2026,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.725,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-012.725
    CBO2026 full year“2026,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.12,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.12
    CBO2026 full year“2026,pce_price_index_pct_change,1.991,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-011.991
    CBO2026 full year“2026,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.114,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.114
    Readout
    Consensus
    3.27%
    Spread
    +1.05%
    Low
    2.75%
    High
    3.80%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Annual growth

    2027 full year · Annual growth

    2 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    1.91%2.20%2.41%CONSENSUSFEB 24MAY 25SEPT 26Fannie Mae · 2.0 · 2026-09-11CBO · 2.409 · 2026-02-01CBO · 2.088 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.025 · 2025-01-01CBO · 1.912 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.011 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.011

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2027 full year“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 |” — Table, PCE Chain Price Index row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.0
    CBO2027 full year“2027,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.409,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.409
    CBO2027 full year“2027,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.088,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-012.088
    CBO2027 full year“2027,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.025,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.025
    CBO2027 full year“2027,pce_price_index_pct_change,1.912,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-011.912
    CBO2027 full year“2027,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.011,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.011
    Readout
    Consensus
    2.20%
    Spread
    +0.41%
    Low
    2.00%
    High
    2.41%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Annual growth

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly year-over-year

    2 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.40%3.45%3.50%CONSENSUSJUL 26JUL 26JUL 26Wells Fargo · 3.4% · 2026-07-30Fannie Mae · 3.5% · 2026-07-10Fannie Mae 3.5%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Wells Fargo2026 Q4“PCE Deflator | 2026 4Q | 3.4” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-303.4%
    Fannie Mae2026 Q4“PCE Chain Price Index | 26.4 | 3.5” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-103.5%
    Readout
    Consensus
    3.45%
    Spread
    +0.10%
    Low
    3.40%
    High
    3.50%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Quarterly year-over-year

    2026 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    2 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.60%CONSENSUSAUG 26AUG 26SEPT 26NABE · 3.6% · 2026-09-11NABE · 3.6% · 2026-09-10NABE · 3.6% · 2026-08-26Philadelphia Fed · 3.6 · 2026-08-14Philadelphia Fed 3.6

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    NABE2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-09-113.6%
    NABE2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary, first quoted paragraph · source ↗2026-09-103.6%
    NABE2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-263.6%
    Philadelphia Fed2026 Q4“| 2026 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 |” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2026 row, Headline PCE Current column · source ↗2026-08-143.6
    Readout
    Consensus
    3.60%
    Spread
    0.00%
    Low
    3.60%
    High
    3.60%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    2027 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    2 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    2.10%CONSENSUSJUN 25JAN 26AUG 26Fannie Mae · 2.1 · 2026-08-13Fed · 2.1 · 2025-06-18Fed 2.1

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2027 Q4“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |” — Forecast table, PCE Chain Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.1
    Fed2027 Q4“| PCE inflation | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8–3.2 | 2.3–2.6 | 2.0–2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5–3.3 | 2.1–3.1 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0 |” — Table 1, PCE inflation, median row, 2027 column · source ↗2025-06-182.1
    Readout
    Consensus
    2.10%
    Spread
    0.00%
    Low
    2.10%
    High
    2.10%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    2023 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2023 full year“2023,pce_price_index_pct_change,3.794,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-013.794
    Readout
    Low
    3.79%
    High
    3.79%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2024 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    2.20%2.50%2.67%CONSENSUSFEB 24JUL 24JAN 25CBO · 2.496 · 2025-01-01CBO · 2.666 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.202 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.202

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2024 full year“2024,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.496,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.496
    CBO2024 full year“2024,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.666,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-012.666
    CBO2024 full year“2024,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.202,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.202
    Readout
    Low
    2.50%
    High
    2.50%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2025 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    2.70%3.00%CONSENSUSMAR 25MAY 25JUN 25Fed · 3.0% · 2025-06-18Fed · 3.0 · 2025-06-18Fed · 2.7% · 2025-03-19Fed 2.7%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fed2025 Q4“PCE inflation 3.0” — Table 1 · 2025 median · source ↗2025-06-183.0%
    Fed2025 Q4“| PCE inflation | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8–3.2 | 2.3–2.6 | 2.0–2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5–3.3 | 2.1–3.1 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0 |” — Table 1, median row, 2025 column · source ↗2025-06-183.0
    Fed2025 Q4“PCE inflation 2.7” — Table 1, page 2 · 2025 median · source ↗2025-03-192.7%
    Readout
    Low
    3.00%
    High
    3.00%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2025 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    2.19%2.62%2.74%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 2.62 · 2026-02-01CBO · 2.74 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.191 · 2025-01-01CBO · 2.196 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.208 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.208

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2025 full year“2025,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.62,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.62
    CBO2025 full year“2025,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.74,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-012.74
    CBO2025 full year“2025,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.191,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.191
    CBO2025 full year“2025,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.196,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-012.196
    CBO2025 full year“2025,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.208,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.208
    Readout
    Low
    2.62%
    High
    2.62%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    2.34%2.50%2.58%CONSENSUSJUL 26AUG 26SEPT 26Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-22Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-21Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-20Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-19Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-18Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-17Cleveland Fed · 2.44 · 2026-09-16Cleveland Fed · 2.44 · 2026-09-15Cleveland Fed · 2.44 · 2026-09-14Cleveland Fed · 2.44 · 2026-09-13Cleveland Fed · 2.44 · 2026-09-12Cleveland Fed · 2.47 · 2026-09-11Cleveland Fed · 2.51 · 2026-09-10Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-09Cleveland Fed · 2.49 · 2026-09-08Cleveland Fed · 2.49 · 2026-09-07Cleveland Fed · 2.49 · 2026-09-06Cleveland Fed · 2.49 · 2026-09-05Cleveland Fed · 2.49 · 2026-09-04Cleveland Fed · 2.48 · 2026-09-03Cleveland Fed · 2.39 · 2026-09-02Cleveland Fed · 2.36 · 2026-09-01Cleveland Fed · 2.37 · 2026-08-31Cleveland Fed · 2.37 · 2026-08-30Cleveland Fed · 2.37 · 2026-08-29Cleveland Fed · 2.34 · 2026-08-28Cleveland Fed · 2.35 · 2026-08-27Cleveland Fed · 2.35 · 2026-08-26Cleveland Fed · 2.58% · 2026-07-27Cleveland Fed 2.58%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/21 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-222.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/18 |” — Inflation, quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-212.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/18 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-202.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/18 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-192.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/17 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-182.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/16 |” — Inflation, quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-172.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/15 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-162.44
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/14 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-152.44
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-142.44
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-132.44
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-122.44
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.24 | 1.91 | 2.47 | 3.00 | 09/10 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-112.47
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.30 | 1.91 | 2.51 | 3.00 | 09/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-102.51
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.29 | 1.91 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/08 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-092.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Inflation, quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-082.49
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-072.49
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-062.49
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-052.49
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.26 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/03 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-042.49
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.25 | 1.91 | 2.48 | 3.00 | 09/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-032.48
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.10 | 1.91 | 2.39 | 3.00 | 09/01 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-022.39
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.05 | 1.91 | 2.36 | 3.00 | 08/31 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-012.36
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-08-312.37
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-08-302.37
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-08-292.37
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.01 | 1.91 | 2.34 | 3.00 | 08/27 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-08-282.34
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.03 | 1.91 | 2.35 | 3.00 | 08/26 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-08-272.35
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.03 | 1.91 | 2.35 | 3.00 | 08/26 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-08-262.35
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“PCE Inflation · 07/27 · 2.58379591689637” — Historical JSON · 2026:Q3 · PCE Inflation · July 27 · source ↗2026-07-272.58%
    Readout
    Low
    2.50%
    High
    2.50%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 |” — Inflation projections table, 2026 Q3 row · source ↗2026-08-142.3
    Readout
    Low
    2.30%
    High
    2.30%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Headline PCE | Current 2.4” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗2026-05-152.4%
    Readout
    Low
    2.40%
    High
    2.40%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly year-over-year

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    3.60%CONSENSUSAUG 26SEPT 26SEPT 26NABE · 3.6% · 2026-09-22NABE · 3.6% · 2026-09-02NABE · 3.6% · 2026-08-28NABE 3.6%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    NABE2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-09-223.6%
    NABE2026 Q4“The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-09-023.6%
    NABE2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-283.6%
    Readout
    Low
    3.60%
    High
    3.60%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly year-over-year

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 full year · Annual average

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2026 full year“The corresponding estimate for 10-year annual-average PCE inflation is 2.20 percent.” — Long-run inflation paragraph · source ↗2026-08-142.20 percent
    Readout
    Low
    2.20%
    High
    2.20%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2027 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2027 Q4“| 2027 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2027 row, Headline PCE Current column · source ↗2026-08-142.3
    Readout
    Low
    2.30%
    High
    2.30%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2028 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2028 Q4“| 2028 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2028 row, Headline PCE Current column · source ↗2026-08-142.1
    Readout
    Low
    2.10%
    High
    2.10%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2028 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    2.00%2.19%CONSENSUSJAN 25JUL 25FEB 26CBO · 2.19 · 2026-02-01CBO · 1.995 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.0 · 2025-01-01CBO 2.0

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2028 full year“2028,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.19,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.19
    CBO2028 full year“2028,pce_price_index_pct_change,1.995,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-011.995
    CBO2028 full year“2028,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.0,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.0
    Readout
    Low
    2.19%
    High
    2.19%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2029 full year · Annual growth

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2029 full year“2029,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.084,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.084
    Readout
    Low
    2.08%
    High
    2.08%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.