PLANETARYINSIGHTS

    Real GDP growth 2026 full year 2.1 2.4 ▲ EIAReal GDP growth 2027 full year 2.6 2.8 ▲ EIAHeadline PCE inflation 2026 Q4 3.95 3.94 ▼ Cleveland FedHeadline CPI inflation 2026 Q4 4.24 4.40 ▲ Cleveland FedCore CPI inflation 2026 Q4 3.02 3.40 ▲ Cleveland FedCore PCE inflation 2026 Q4 3.33 3.38 ▲ Cleveland Fed

    U.S. headline PCE inflation

    Projected change in the personal consumption expenditures price index.

    United States · %147 extracted figures7 institutions6 comparable groups

    Revisions on this metric

    57 on record
    2026-11-10Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized3.95→3.94
    2026-11-09Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized3.94→3.95
    2026-11-06Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized3.85→3.94
    2026-11-05Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized3.99→3.85
    2026-11-04Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.05→3.99
    2026-11-03Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.52→4.05
    2026-11-02Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.42→4.52
    2026-10-31Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.45→4.42
    2026-10-29Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.28→4.45
    2026-10-28Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.37→4.28
    2026-10-27Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.45→4.37
    2026-10-26Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.33→4.45
    2026-10-23Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.16→4.33
    2026-10-22Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.17→4.16
    2026-10-21Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.24→4.17
    2026-10-20Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.27→4.24
    2026-10-19Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.12→4.27
    2026-10-16Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.15→4.12
    2026-10-15Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized1.92→1.97
    2026-10-15Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.06→4.15
    2026-10-14Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized4.00→4.06
    2026-10-10Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized3.85→4.00
    2026-10-09Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized3.86→3.85
    2026-10-08Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized3.84→3.86
    2026-10-07Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized3.79→3.84
    2026-10-03Cleveland Fed 2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized3.91→3.79
    2026-10-01Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.55→1.92
    2026-09-24Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.50→2.55
    2026-09-17Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.44→2.50
    2026-09-12Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.47→2.44
    2026-09-11Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.51→2.47
    2026-09-10Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.50→2.51
    2026-09-09Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.49→2.50
    2026-09-04Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.48→2.49
    2026-09-03Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.39→2.48
    2026-09-02Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.36→2.39
    2026-09-01Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.37→2.36
    2026-08-29Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.34→2.37
    2026-08-28Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.35→2.34
    2026-08-26Cleveland Fed 2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized2.58%→2.35
    2026-02-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.74→2.62
    2026-02-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth2.725→2.748
    2026-02-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.088→2.409
    2026-02-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual growth1.995→2.19
    2025-09-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.191→2.74
    2025-09-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth2.12→2.725
    2025-09-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.025→2.088
    2025-09-01CBO 2028 full year · Annual growth2.0→1.995
    2025-06-18Fed 2025 Q4 · Q4/Q42.7%→3.0%
    2025-01-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual growth2.666→2.496
    2025-01-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.196→2.191
    2025-01-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth1.991→2.12
    2025-01-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth1.912→2.025
    2024-06-01CBO 2024 full year · Annual growth2.202→2.666
    2024-06-01CBO 2025 full year · Annual growth2.208→2.196
    2024-06-01CBO 2026 full year · Annual growth2.114→1.991
    2024-06-01CBO 2027 full year · Annual growth2.011→1.912

    2026 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    United States · 2 institutions
    2.40%2.95%3.50%CONSENSUSJUN 25JAN 26AUG 26Fannie Mae · 3.5 · 2026-08-13Fed · 2.4 · 2025-06-18Fed 2.4

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2026 Q4“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |” — Forecast table, PCE Chain Price Index, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-08-133.5
    Fed2026 Q4“| PCE inflation | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8–3.2 | 2.3–2.6 | 2.0–2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5–3.3 | 2.1–3.1 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0 |” — Table 1, PCE inflation, median row, 2026 column · source ↗2025-06-182.4

    Readout

    Consensus
    2.95%
    Spread
    +1.10%
    Low
    2.40%
    High
    3.50%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    2026 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 2 institutions
    1.99%3.27%3.80%CONSENSUSFEB 24MAY 25SEPT 26Fannie Mae · 3.8 · 2026-09-11CBO · 2.748 · 2026-02-01CBO · 2.725 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.12 · 2025-01-01CBO · 1.991 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.114 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.114

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2026 full year“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 |” — Table, PCE Chain Price Index row, 2026 annual column · source ↗2026-09-113.8
    CBO2026 full year“2026,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.748,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.748
    CBO2026 full year“2026,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.725,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-012.725
    CBO2026 full year“2026,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.12,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.12
    CBO2026 full year“2026,pce_price_index_pct_change,1.991,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-011.991
    CBO2026 full year“2026,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.114,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.114

    Readout

    Consensus
    3.27%
    Spread
    +1.05%
    Low
    2.75%
    High
    3.80%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Annual growth

    2027 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 2 institutions
    1.91%2.20%2.41%CONSENSUSFEB 24MAY 25SEPT 26Fannie Mae · 2.0 · 2026-09-11CBO · 2.409 · 2026-02-01CBO · 2.088 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.025 · 2025-01-01CBO · 1.912 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.011 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.011

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2027 full year“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 |” — Table, PCE Chain Price Index row, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-09-112.0
    CBO2027 full year“2027,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.409,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.409
    CBO2027 full year“2027,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.088,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-012.088
    CBO2027 full year“2027,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.025,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.025
    CBO2027 full year“2027,pce_price_index_pct_change,1.912,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-011.912
    CBO2027 full year“2027,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.011,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.011

    Readout

    Consensus
    2.20%
    Spread
    +0.41%
    Low
    2.00%
    High
    2.41%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Annual growth

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly year-over-year

    United States · 2 institutions
    3.40%3.45%3.50%CONSENSUSJUL 26JUL 26JUL 26Wells Fargo · 3.4% · 2026-07-30Fannie Mae · 3.5% · 2026-07-10Fannie Mae 3.5%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Wells Fargo2026 Q4“PCE Deflator | 2026 4Q | 3.4” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-303.4%
    Fannie Mae2026 Q4“PCE Chain Price Index | 26.4 | 3.5” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-103.5%

    Readout

    Consensus
    3.45%
    Spread
    +0.10%
    Low
    3.40%
    High
    3.50%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Quarterly year-over-year

    2026 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    United States · 2 institutions
    3.60%CONSENSUSAUG 26SEPT 26OCT 26NABE · 3.6% · 2026-10-10NABE · 3.6% · 2026-09-11NABE · 3.6% · 2026-09-10NABE · 3.6% · 2026-08-26Philadelphia Fed · 3.6 · 2026-08-14Philadelphia Fed 3.6

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    NABE2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-10-103.6%
    NABE2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-09-113.6%
    NABE2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary, first quoted paragraph · source ↗2026-09-103.6%
    NABE2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-263.6%
    Philadelphia Fed2026 Q4“| 2026 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 |” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2026 row, Headline PCE Current column · source ↗2026-08-143.6

    Readout

    Consensus
    3.60%
    Spread
    0.00%
    Low
    3.60%
    High
    3.60%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    2027 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    United States · 2 institutions
    2.10%CONSENSUSJUN 25JAN 26AUG 26Fannie Mae · 2.1 · 2026-08-13Fed · 2.1 · 2025-06-18Fed 2.1

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fannie Mae2027 Q4“| PCE Chain Price Index | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |” — Forecast table, PCE Chain Price Index, 2027 annual column · source ↗2026-08-132.1
    Fed2027 Q4“| PCE inflation | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8–3.2 | 2.3–2.6 | 2.0–2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5–3.3 | 2.1–3.1 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0 |” — Table 1, PCE inflation, median row, 2027 column · source ↗2025-06-182.1

    Readout

    Consensus
    2.10%
    Spread
    0.00%
    Low
    2.10%
    High
    2.10%
    Reporting
    2
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    2023 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2023 full year“2023,pce_price_index_pct_change,3.794,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-013.794

    Readout

    Low
    3.79%
    High
    3.79%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2024 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 1 institution
    2.20%2.50%2.67%CONSENSUSFEB 24JUL 24JAN 25CBO · 2.496 · 2025-01-01CBO · 2.666 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.202 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.202

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2024 full year“2024,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.496,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.496
    CBO2024 full year“2024,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.666,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-012.666
    CBO2024 full year“2024,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.202,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.202

    Readout

    Low
    2.50%
    High
    2.50%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2025 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    United States · 1 institution
    2.70%3.00%CONSENSUSMAR 25MAY 25JUN 25Fed · 3.0% · 2025-06-18Fed · 3.0 · 2025-06-18Fed · 2.7% · 2025-03-19Fed 2.7%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fed2025 Q4“PCE inflation 3.0” — Table 1 · 2025 median · source ↗2025-06-183.0%
    Fed2025 Q4“| PCE inflation | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8–3.2 | 2.3–2.6 | 2.0–2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5–3.3 | 2.1–3.1 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0 |” — Table 1, median row, 2025 column · source ↗2025-06-183.0
    Fed2025 Q4“PCE inflation 2.7” — Table 1, page 2 · 2025 median · source ↗2025-03-192.7%

    Readout

    Low
    3.00%
    High
    3.00%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2025 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 1 institution
    2.19%2.62%2.74%CONSENSUSFEB 24JAN 25FEB 26CBO · 2.62 · 2026-02-01CBO · 2.74 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.191 · 2025-01-01CBO · 2.196 · 2024-06-01CBO · 2.208 · 2024-02-01CBO 2.208

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2025 full year“2025,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.62,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.62
    CBO2025 full year“2025,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.74,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-012.74
    CBO2025 full year“2025,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.191,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.191
    CBO2025 full year“2025,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.196,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-06-012.196
    CBO2025 full year“2025,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.208,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2024-02-012.208

    Readout

    Low
    2.62%
    High
    2.62%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized

    United States · 1 institution
    1.92%1.97%2.58%CONSENSUSJUL 26SEPT 26OCT 26Cleveland Fed · 1.97 · 2026-10-28Cleveland Fed · 1.97 · 2026-10-27Cleveland Fed · 1.97 · 2026-10-26Cleveland Fed · 1.97 · 2026-10-25Cleveland Fed · 1.97 · 2026-10-24Cleveland Fed · 1.97 · 2026-10-23Cleveland Fed · 1.97 · 2026-10-22Cleveland Fed · 1.97 · 2026-10-21Cleveland Fed · 1.97 · 2026-10-20Cleveland Fed · 1.97 · 2026-10-19Cleveland Fed · 1.97 · 2026-10-17Cleveland Fed · 1.97 · 2026-10-16Cleveland Fed · 1.97 · 2026-10-15Cleveland Fed · 1.92 · 2026-10-14Cleveland Fed · 1.92 · 2026-10-13Cleveland Fed · 1.92 · 2026-10-11Cleveland Fed · 1.92 · 2026-10-10Cleveland Fed · 1.92 · 2026-10-08Cleveland Fed · 1.92 · 2026-10-07Cleveland Fed · 1.92 · 2026-10-05Cleveland Fed · 1.92 · 2026-10-03Cleveland Fed · 1.92 · 2026-10-02Cleveland Fed · 1.92 · 2026-10-01Cleveland Fed · 2.55 · 2026-09-30Cleveland Fed · 2.55 · 2026-09-29Cleveland Fed · 2.55 · 2026-09-28Cleveland Fed · 2.55 · 2026-09-27Cleveland Fed · 2.55 · 2026-09-26Cleveland Fed · 2.55 · 2026-09-25Cleveland Fed · 2.55 · 2026-09-24Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-23Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-22Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-21Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-20Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-19Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-18Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-17Cleveland Fed · 2.44 · 2026-09-16Cleveland Fed · 2.44 · 2026-09-15Cleveland Fed · 2.44 · 2026-09-14Cleveland Fed · 2.44 · 2026-09-13Cleveland Fed · 2.44 · 2026-09-12Cleveland Fed · 2.47 · 2026-09-11Cleveland Fed · 2.51 · 2026-09-10Cleveland Fed · 2.50 · 2026-09-09Cleveland Fed · 2.49 · 2026-09-08Cleveland Fed · 2.49 · 2026-09-07Cleveland Fed · 2.49 · 2026-09-06Cleveland Fed · 2.49 · 2026-09-05Cleveland Fed · 2.49 · 2026-09-04Cleveland Fed · 2.48 · 2026-09-03Cleveland Fed · 2.39 · 2026-09-02Cleveland Fed · 2.36 · 2026-09-01Cleveland Fed · 2.37 · 2026-08-31Cleveland Fed · 2.37 · 2026-08-30Cleveland Fed · 2.37 · 2026-08-29Cleveland Fed · 2.34 · 2026-08-28Cleveland Fed · 2.35 · 2026-08-27Cleveland Fed · 2.35 · 2026-08-26Cleveland Fed · 2.58% · 2026-07-27Cleveland Fed 2.58%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | | | 1.97 | 2.33 | 10/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-281.97
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | | | 1.97 | 2.33 | 10/27 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-271.97
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | | | 1.97 | 2.33 | 10/26 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-261.97
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | | | 1.97 | 2.33 | 10/23 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-251.97
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | | | 1.97 | 2.33 | 10/23 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column (model nowcast) · source ↗2026-10-241.97
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | | | 1.97 | 2.33 | 10/23 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-231.97
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | | | 1.97 | 2.33 | 10/22 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, row 2026:Q3, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-221.97
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | | | 1.97 | 2.33 | 10/21 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-211.97
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | | | 1.97 | 2.33 | 10/20 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row · source ↗2026-10-201.97
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | | | 1.97 | 2.33 | 10/19 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-191.97
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | | | 1.97 | 2.33 | 10/16 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-171.97
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | | | 1.97 | 2.33 | 10/16 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-161.97
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | | | 1.97 | 2.33 | 10/14 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-151.97
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/13 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-141.92
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-131.92
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-111.92
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-101.92
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/07 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-081.92
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/06 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-071.92
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-051.92
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-031.92
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 10/01 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-021.92
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.57 | 2.16 | 1.92 | 2.29 | 09/30 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-011.92
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 | 09/29 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-302.55
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-292.55
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-282.55
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-272.55
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 | 09/25 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-262.55
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 | 09/24 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-252.55
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.53 | 2.16 | 2.55 | 3.00 | 09/23 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-242.55
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/22 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-232.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/21 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-222.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/18 |” — Inflation, quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-212.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/18 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-202.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/18 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-192.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/17 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-182.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/16 |” — Inflation, quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-172.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/15 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-162.44
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/14 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-152.44
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-142.44
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-132.44
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 2.44 | 3.00 | 09/11 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-122.44
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.24 | 1.91 | 2.47 | 3.00 | 09/10 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-112.47
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.30 | 1.91 | 2.51 | 3.00 | 09/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-102.51
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.29 | 1.91 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 09/08 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-092.50
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Inflation, quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-082.49
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-072.49
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-062.49
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.27 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-052.49
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.26 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 3.00 | 09/03 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-042.49
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.25 | 1.91 | 2.48 | 3.00 | 09/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-032.48
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.10 | 1.91 | 2.39 | 3.00 | 09/01 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-022.39
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.05 | 1.91 | 2.36 | 3.00 | 08/31 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-09-012.36
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-08-312.37
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-08-302.37
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.07 | 1.91 | 2.37 | 3.00 | 08/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-08-292.37
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.01 | 1.91 | 2.34 | 3.00 | 08/27 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-08-282.34
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.03 | 1.91 | 2.35 | 3.00 | 08/26 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-08-272.35
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 1.03 | 1.91 | 2.35 | 3.00 | 08/26 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q3 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-08-262.35
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q3“PCE Inflation · 07/27 · 2.58379591689637” — Historical JSON · 2026:Q3 · PCE Inflation · July 27 · source ↗2026-07-272.58%

    Readout

    Low
    1.97%
    High
    1.97%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2026 Q3 · Quarterly annualized

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2026 Q3“| 2026:Q3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 |” — Inflation projections table, 2026 Q3 row · source ↗2026-08-142.3

    Readout

    Low
    2.30%
    High
    2.30%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Headline PCE | Current 2.4” — Median Short-Run Projections for Inflation · Quarterly · source ↗2026-05-152.4%

    Readout

    Low
    2.40%
    High
    2.40%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly annualized

    United States · 1 institution
    3.79%3.94%4.52%CONSENSUSOCT 26OCT 26NOV 26Cleveland Fed · 3.94 · 2026-11-11Cleveland Fed · 3.94 · 2026-11-10Cleveland Fed · 3.95 · 2026-11-09Cleveland Fed · 3.94 · 2026-11-08Cleveland Fed · 3.94 · 2026-11-07Cleveland Fed · 3.94 · 2026-11-06Cleveland Fed · 3.85 · 2026-11-05Cleveland Fed · 3.99 · 2026-11-04Cleveland Fed · 4.05 · 2026-11-03Cleveland Fed · 4.52 · 2026-11-02Cleveland Fed · 4.42 · 2026-11-01Cleveland Fed · 4.42 · 2026-10-31Cleveland Fed · 4.45 · 2026-10-29Cleveland Fed · 4.28 · 2026-10-28Cleveland Fed · 4.37 · 2026-10-27Cleveland Fed · 4.45 · 2026-10-26Cleveland Fed · 4.33 · 2026-10-25Cleveland Fed · 4.33 · 2026-10-24Cleveland Fed · 4.33 · 2026-10-23Cleveland Fed · 4.16 · 2026-10-22Cleveland Fed · 4.17 · 2026-10-21Cleveland Fed · 4.24 · 2026-10-20Cleveland Fed · 4.27 · 2026-10-19Cleveland Fed · 4.12 · 2026-10-18Cleveland Fed · 4.12 · 2026-10-17Cleveland Fed · 4.12 · 2026-10-16Cleveland Fed · 4.15 · 2026-10-15Cleveland Fed · 4.06 · 2026-10-14Cleveland Fed · 4.00 · 2026-10-13Cleveland Fed · 4.00 · 2026-10-12Cleveland Fed · 4.00 · 2026-10-11Cleveland Fed · 4.00 · 2026-10-10Cleveland Fed · 3.85 · 2026-10-09Cleveland Fed · 3.86 · 2026-10-08Cleveland Fed · 3.84 · 2026-10-07Cleveland Fed · 3.79 · 2026-10-06Cleveland Fed · 3.79 · 2026-10-05Cleveland Fed · 3.79 · 2026-10-04Cleveland Fed · 3.79 · 2026-10-03Cleveland Fed · 3.91 · 2026-10-02Cleveland Fed 3.91

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | 4.40 | 3.40 | 3.94 | 3.38 | 11/10” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-11-113.94
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.40 | 3.40 | 3.94 | 3.38 | 11/10 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-11-103.94
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.24 | 3.02 | 3.95 | 3.33 | 11/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-11-093.95
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | 4.22 | 3.02 | 3.94 | 3.33 | 11/06 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column (model nowcast, updated 11/06) · source ↗2026-11-083.94
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.22 | 3.02 | 3.94 | 3.33 | 11/06 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column (nowcast model output) · source ↗2026-11-073.94
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.22 | 3.02 | 3.94 | 3.33 | 11/06 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-11-063.94
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | 4.07 | 3.02 | 3.85 | 3.33 | 11/05” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-11-053.85
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.31 | 3.02 | 3.99 | 3.33 | 11/04 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-11-043.99
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.42 | 3.02 | 4.05 | 3.33 | 11/03 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-11-034.05
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.26 | 3.02 | 4.52 | 3.33 | 11/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-11-024.52
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.08 | 3.02 | 4.42 | 3.33 | 10/30 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column, Updated 10/30 · source ↗2026-11-014.42
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.08 | 3.02 | 4.42 | 3.33 | 10/30 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column, Updated 10/30 · source ↗2026-10-314.42
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.13 | 3.02 | 4.45 | 3.33 | 10/29 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-294.45
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.05 | 3.02 | 4.28 | 3.15 | 10/28 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-284.28
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.21 | 3.02 | 4.37 | 3.15 | 10/27 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-274.37
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.35 | 3.02 | 4.45 | 3.15 | 10/26 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-264.45
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.13 | 3.02 | 4.33 | 3.15 | 10/23 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-254.33
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.13 | 3.02 | 4.33 | 3.15 | 10/23 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column (model nowcast) · source ↗2026-10-244.33
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.13 | 3.02 | 4.33 | 3.15 | 10/23 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-234.33
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.84 | 3.02 | 4.16 | 3.15 | 10/22 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, row 2026:Q4, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-224.16
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.85 | 3.02 | 4.17 | 3.15 | 10/21 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-214.17
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.98 | 3.02 | 4.24 | 3.15 | 10/20 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row · source ↗2026-10-204.24
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 5.03 | 3.02 | 4.27 | 3.15 | 10/19 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-194.27
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.77 | 3.02 | 4.12 | 3.15 | 10/16 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-184.12
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.77 | 3.02 | 4.12 | 3.15 | 10/16 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-174.12
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.77 | 3.02 | 4.12 | 3.15 | 10/16 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-164.12
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.82 | 3.02 | 4.15 | 3.15 | 10/14 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-154.15
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.50 | 2.56 | 4.06 | 3.05 | 10/13 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-144.06
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.39 | 2.56 | 4.00 | 3.05 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-134.00
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.39 | 2.56 | 4.00 | 3.05 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-124.00
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.39 | 2.56 | 4.00 | 3.05 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-114.00
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.39 | 2.56 | 4.00 | 3.05 | 10/09 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-104.00
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.12 | 2.56 | 3.85 | 3.05 | 10/08 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-093.85
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.14 | 2.56 | 3.86 | 3.05 | 10/07 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-083.86
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.10 | 2.56 | 3.84 | 3.05 | 10/06 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-073.84
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.01 | 2.56 | 3.79 | 3.05 | 10/05 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-063.79
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.02 | 2.56 | 3.79 | 3.05 | 10/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-053.79
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.02 | 2.56 | 3.79 | 3.05 | 10/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-043.79
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.02 | 2.56 | 3.79 | 3.05 | 10/02 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-033.79
    Cleveland Fed2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 4.24 | 2.56 | 3.91 | 3.05 | 10/01 |” — Quarterly annualized percent change table, 2026:Q4 row, PCE column · source ↗2026-10-023.91

    Readout

    Low
    3.94%
    High
    3.94%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly annualized

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly year-over-year

    United States · 1 institution
    3.60%CONSENSUSAUG 26SEPT 26SEPT 26NABE · 3.6% · 2026-09-22NABE · 3.6% · 2026-09-02NABE · 3.6% · 2026-08-28NABE 3.6%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    NABE2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-09-223.6%
    NABE2026 Q4“The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-09-023.6%
    NABE2026 Q4““The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026.” — Summary · source ↗2026-08-283.6%

    Readout

    Low
    3.60%
    High
    3.60%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly year-over-year

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2026 full year · Annual average

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2026 full year“The corresponding estimate for 10-year annual-average PCE inflation is 2.20 percent.” — Long-run inflation paragraph · source ↗2026-08-142.20 percent

    Readout

    Low
    2.20%
    High
    2.20%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual average

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2027 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2027 Q4“| 2027 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2027 row, Headline PCE Current column · source ↗2026-08-142.3

    Readout

    Low
    2.30%
    High
    2.30%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2028 Q4 · Q4/Q4

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2028 Q4“| 2028 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |” — Inflation projections table, Q4/Q4 annual averages, 2028 row, Headline PCE Current column · source ↗2026-08-142.1

    Readout

    Low
    2.10%
    High
    2.10%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4/Q4

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2028 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 1 institution
    2.00%2.19%CONSENSUSJAN 25JUL 25FEB 26CBO · 2.19 · 2026-02-01CBO · 1.995 · 2025-09-01CBO · 2.0 · 2025-01-01CBO 2.0

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2028 full year“2028,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.19,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.19
    CBO2028 full year“2028,pce_price_index_pct_change,1.995,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-09-011.995
    CBO2028 full year“2028,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.0,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2025-01-012.0

    Readout

    Low
    2.19%
    High
    2.19%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.

    2029 full year · Annual growth

    United States · 1 institution
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    CBO2029 full year“2029,pce_price_index_pct_change,2.084,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, pce_price_index_pct_change · source ↗2026-02-012.084

    Readout

    Low
    2.08%
    High
    2.08%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Annual growth

    One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.