U.S. unemployment rate
Projected share of the U.S. civilian labor force that is unemployed.
United States · %128 extracted figures7 institutions6 comparable groups
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | 2026 Q4“Unemployment Rate | 2026 4Q | 4.2” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-07-30 | 4.2% |
| RBC | 2026 Q4“Unemployment rate (%) | 2026 Q4 | 4.3” — U.S. Forecast Detail · 2026 Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-07-13 | 4.3% |
| Fannie Mae | 2026 Q4“Unemployment Rate | 26.4 | 4.4” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-07-10 | 4.4% |
| CBO | 2026 Q4“2026q4,unemployment_rate,4.557,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.557 |
| CBO | 2026 Q4“2026q4,unemployment_rate,4.225,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.225 |
| Fed | 2026 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2026 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 4.5 |
| CBO | 2026 Q4“2026q4,unemployment_rate,4.377,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.377 |
| CBO | 2026 Q4“2026q4,unemployment_rate,4.228,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.228 |
| CBO | 2026 Q4“2026q4,unemployment_rate,4.357,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.357 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.39%
- Spread
- +0.36%
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.56%
- Reporting
- 5
- Basis
- Quarterly average
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 2026 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |” — Forecast table, Unemployment Rate, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 4.3 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,unemployment_rate,4.556,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.556 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,unemployment_rate,4.392,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.392 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,unemployment_rate,4.364,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.364 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,unemployment_rate,4.158,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.158 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,unemployment_rate,4.348,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.348 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.43%
- Spread
- +0.26%
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.56%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Annual average
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 2027 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |” — Forecast table, Unemployment Rate, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 4.3 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,unemployment_rate,4.535,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.535 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,unemployment_rate,4.35,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.35 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,unemployment_rate,4.393,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.393 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,unemployment_rate,4.322,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.322 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,unemployment_rate,4.377,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.377 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.42%
- Spread
- +0.24%
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.54%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Annual average
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2027 Q4“2027q4,unemployment_rate,4.519,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.519 |
| CBO | 2027 Q4“2027q4,unemployment_rate,4.426,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.426 |
| Fed | 2027 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2027 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 4.4 |
| CBO | 2027 Q4“2027q4,unemployment_rate,4.403,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.403 |
| CBO | 2027 Q4“2027q4,unemployment_rate,4.372,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.372 |
| CBO | 2027 Q4“2027q4,unemployment_rate,4.388,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.388 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.46%
- Spread
- +0.12%
- Low
- 4.40%
- High
- 4.52%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Quarterly average
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| NABE | 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 4.4% |
| NABE | 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added **NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG**.” — Summary, second quoted paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 4.4% |
| NABE | 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 4.4% |
| NABE | 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-26 | 4.4% |
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 full year“| 2026 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 34.6 | 40.7 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2026 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.35%
- Spread
- +0.10%
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.40%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Annual average
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2025 Q4“2025q4,unemployment_rate,4.532,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.532 |
| CBO | 2025 Q4“2025q4,unemployment_rate,4.467,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.467 |
| Fed | 2025 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2025 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 4.5 |
| CBO | 2025 Q4“2025q4,unemployment_rate,4.325,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.325 |
| CBO | 2025 Q4“2025q4,unemployment_rate,4.004,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.004 |
| CBO | 2025 Q4“2025q4,unemployment_rate,4.354,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.354 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.52%
- Spread
- +0.03%
- Low
- 4.50%
- High
- 4.53%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Quarterly average
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2023 Q4“2023q4,unemployment_rate,3.9,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 3.9 |
Readout
- Low
- 3.90%
- High
- 3.90%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2023 full year“2023,unemployment_rate,3.666,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 3.666 |
Readout
- Low
- 3.67%
- High
- 3.67%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2024 Q1“2024q1,unemployment_rate,3.975,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 3.975 |
Readout
- Low
- 3.98%
- High
- 3.98%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2024 Q2“2024q2,unemployment_rate,3.881,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.881 |
| CBO | 2024 Q2“2024q2,unemployment_rate,4.11,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.11 |
Readout
- Low
- 3.88%
- High
- 3.88%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2024 Q3“2024q3,unemployment_rate,3.915,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.915 |
| CBO | 2024 Q3“2024q3,unemployment_rate,4.246,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.246 |
Readout
- Low
- 3.92%
- High
- 3.92%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2024 Q4“2024q4,unemployment_rate,4.185,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.185 |
| CBO | 2024 Q4“2024q4,unemployment_rate,3.932,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.932 |
| CBO | 2024 Q4“2024q4,unemployment_rate,4.371,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.371 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.18%
- High
- 4.18%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2024 full year“2024,unemployment_rate,4.046,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.046 |
| CBO | 2024 full year“2024,unemployment_rate,3.882,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.882 |
| CBO | 2024 full year“2024,unemployment_rate,4.175,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.175 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.05%
- High
- 4.05%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2025 Q1“2025q1,unemployment_rate,4.229,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.229 |
| CBO | 2025 Q1“2025q1,unemployment_rate,3.957,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.957 |
| CBO | 2025 Q1“2025q1,unemployment_rate,4.409,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.409 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.23%
- High
- 4.23%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2025 Q2“2025q2,unemployment_rate,4.259,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.259 |
| CBO | 2025 Q2“2025q2,unemployment_rate,3.957,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.957 |
| CBO | 2025 Q2“2025q2,unemployment_rate,4.403,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.403 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.26%
- High
- 4.26%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2025 Q3“2025q3,unemployment_rate,4.3,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.3 |
| CBO | 2025 Q3“2025q3,unemployment_rate,4.415,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.415 |
| CBO | 2025 Q3“2025q3,unemployment_rate,4.294,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.294 |
| CBO | 2025 Q3“2025q3,unemployment_rate,3.975,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.975 |
| CBO | 2025 Q3“2025q3,unemployment_rate,4.375,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.375 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 2025 Q4“Unemployment rate 4.5” — Table 1 · 2025 median · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 4.5% |
| Fed | 2025 Q4“Unemployment rate 4.4” — Table 1, page 2 · 2025 median · source ↗ | 2025-03-19 | 4.4% |
Readout
- Low
- 4.50%
- High
- 4.50%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Q4 average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,unemployment_rate,4.274,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.274 |
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,unemployment_rate,4.287,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.287 |
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,unemployment_rate,4.277,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.277 |
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,unemployment_rate,3.973,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.973 |
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,unemployment_rate,4.385,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.385 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.27%
- High
- 4.27%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2026 Q1“2026q1,unemployment_rate,4.549,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.549 |
| CBO | 2026 Q1“2026q1,unemployment_rate,4.517,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.517 |
| CBO | 2026 Q1“2026q1,unemployment_rate,4.347,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.347 |
| CBO | 2026 Q1“2026q1,unemployment_rate,4.078,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.078 |
| CBO | 2026 Q1“2026q1,unemployment_rate,4.344,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.344 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.55%
- High
- 4.55%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2026 Q2“2026q2,unemployment_rate,4.558,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.558 |
| CBO | 2026 Q2“2026q2,unemployment_rate,4.478,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.478 |
| CBO | 2026 Q2“2026q2,unemployment_rate,4.361,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.361 |
| CBO | 2026 Q2“2026q2,unemployment_rate,4.137,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.137 |
| CBO | 2026 Q2“2026q2,unemployment_rate,4.343,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.343 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.56%
- High
- 4.56%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2026 Q3“2026q3,unemployment_rate,4.56,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.56 |
| CBO | 2026 Q3“2026q3,unemployment_rate,4.349,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.349 |
| CBO | 2026 Q3“2026q3,unemployment_rate,4.37,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.37 |
| CBO | 2026 Q3“2026q3,unemployment_rate,4.187,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.187 |
| CBO | 2026 Q3“2026q3,unemployment_rate,4.349,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.349 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.56%
- High
- 4.56%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q3“The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will range from 4.2 percent to 4.3 percent from this quarter through the second quarter of 2027.” — Unemployment outlook paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.2 percent |
Readout
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.20%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 58.4 | 66.4 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2026:Q4 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Unemployment Rate (%) | New 4.5” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 4.5% |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2027 Q1“2027q1,unemployment_rate,4.55,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.55 |
| CBO | 2027 Q1“2027q1,unemployment_rate,4.256,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.256 |
| CBO | 2027 Q1“2027q1,unemployment_rate,4.382,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.382 |
| CBO | 2027 Q1“2027q1,unemployment_rate,4.27,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.27 |
| CBO | 2027 Q1“2027q1,unemployment_rate,4.366,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.366 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.55%
- High
- 4.55%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2027 Q1“| 2027:Q1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 64.0 | 94.9 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q1 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2027 Q2“2027q2,unemployment_rate,4.541,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.541 |
| CBO | 2027 Q2“2027q2,unemployment_rate,4.325,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.325 |
| CBO | 2027 Q2“2027q2,unemployment_rate,4.389,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.389 |
| CBO | 2027 Q2“2027q2,unemployment_rate,4.305,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.305 |
| CBO | 2027 Q2“2027q2,unemployment_rate,4.374,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.374 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.54%
- High
- 4.54%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2027 Q2“| 2027:Q2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 97.3 | 80.4 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q2 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2027 Q3“2027q3,unemployment_rate,4.53,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.53 |
| CBO | 2027 Q3“2027q3,unemployment_rate,4.394,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.394 |
| CBO | 2027 Q3“2027q3,unemployment_rate,4.398,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.398 |
| CBO | 2027 Q3“2027q3,unemployment_rate,4.34,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.34 |
| CBO | 2027 Q3“2027q3,unemployment_rate,4.381,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.381 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.53%
- High
- 4.53%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2027 Q3“| 2027:Q3 | N.A. | 2.2 | N.A. | 4.3 | N.A. | 56.2 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q3 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2027 full year“| 2027 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 64.4 | 75.4 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2028 Q1“2028q1,unemployment_rate,4.507,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.507 |
| CBO | 2028 Q1“2028q1,unemployment_rate,4.426,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.426 |
| CBO | 2028 Q1“2028q1,unemployment_rate,4.406,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.406 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.51%
- High
- 4.51%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2028 Q2“2028q2,unemployment_rate,4.49,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.49 |
| CBO | 2028 Q2“2028q2,unemployment_rate,4.426,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.426 |
| CBO | 2028 Q2“2028q2,unemployment_rate,4.406,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.406 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.49%
- High
- 4.49%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2028 Q3“2028q3,unemployment_rate,4.469,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.469 |
| CBO | 2028 Q3“2028q3,unemployment_rate,4.426,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.426 |
| CBO | 2028 Q3“2028q3,unemployment_rate,4.404,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.404 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.47%
- High
- 4.47%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2028 Q4“2028q4,unemployment_rate,4.446,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.446 |
| CBO | 2028 Q4“2028q4,unemployment_rate,4.425,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.425 |
| CBO | 2028 Q4“2028q4,unemployment_rate,4.399,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.399 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.45%
- High
- 4.45%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Forecasts by report dateUnited States
EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2028 full year“2028,unemployment_rate,4.478,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.478 |
| CBO | 2028 full year“2028,unemployment_rate,4.426,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.426 |
| CBO | 2028 full year“2028,unemployment_rate,4.404,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.404 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.48%
- High
- 4.48%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2028 full year“| 2028 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 | N.A. | N.A. |” — Median Forecasts table, 2028 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.2 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.20%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2029 Q1“2029q1,unemployment_rate,4.422,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.422 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.42%
- High
- 4.42%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2029 Q2“2029q2,unemployment_rate,4.398,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.398 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.40%
- High
- 4.40%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2029 Q3“2029q3,unemployment_rate,4.374,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.374 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.37%
- High
- 4.37%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2029 Q4“2029q4,unemployment_rate,4.352,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.352 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.35%
- High
- 4.35%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2029 full year“2029,unemployment_rate,4.387,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.387 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.39%
- High
- 4.39%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.
Single reported figureUnited States
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2029 full year“| 2029 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | N.A. | N.A. |” — Median Forecasts table, 2029 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.