U.S. unemployment rate
Projected share of the U.S. civilian labor force that is unemployed.
United States · %145 extracted figures9 institutions11 comparable groups
Revisions on this metric
78 on record2026 Q4 · Quarterly average
United States · 5 institutionsEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 2026 Q4“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2026 Q4 column · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 4.2 |
| Wells Fargo | 2026 Q4“Unemployment Rate | 2026 4Q | 4.2” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-07-30 | 4.2% |
| RBC | 2026 Q4“Unemployment rate (%) | 2026 Q4 | 4.3” — U.S. Forecast Detail · 2026 Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-07-13 | 4.3% |
| Fannie Mae | 2026 Q4“Unemployment Rate | 26.4 | 4.4” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-07-10 | 4.4% |
| CBO | 2026 Q4“2026q4,unemployment_rate,4.557,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.557 |
| CBO | 2026 Q4“2026q4,unemployment_rate,4.225,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.225 |
| Fed | 2026 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2026 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 4.5 |
| CBO | 2026 Q4“2026q4,unemployment_rate,4.377,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.377 |
| CBO | 2026 Q4“2026q4,unemployment_rate,4.228,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.228 |
| CBO | 2026 Q4“2026q4,unemployment_rate,4.357,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.357 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.35%
- Spread
- +0.36%
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.56%
- Reporting
- 5
- Basis
- Quarterly average
2026 full year · Annual average
United States · 3 institutionsEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deloitte | 2026 full year“A slowdown in employment growth along with more modest declines in the workforce participation rate will allow the unemployment rate to drift upward from an expected 4.2% average in 2026 to 4.3% in 2028.” — Labor market section · source ↗ | 2026-09-29 | 4.2% average |
| Fannie Mae | 2026 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 4.2 |
| Fannie Mae | 2026 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |” — Forecast table, Unemployment Rate, 2026 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 4.3 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,unemployment_rate,4.556,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.556 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,unemployment_rate,4.392,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.392 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,unemployment_rate,4.364,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.364 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,unemployment_rate,4.158,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.158 |
| CBO | 2026 full year“2026,unemployment_rate,4.348,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.348 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.32%
- Spread
- +0.36%
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.56%
- Reporting
- 3
- Basis
- Annual average
2027 Q4 · Quarterly average
United States · 3 institutionsEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 2027 Q4“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 Q4 column · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 4.3 |
| CBO | 2027 Q4“2027q4,unemployment_rate,4.519,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.519 |
| CBO | 2027 Q4“2027q4,unemployment_rate,4.426,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.426 |
| Fed | 2027 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2027 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 4.4 |
| CBO | 2027 Q4“2027q4,unemployment_rate,4.403,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.403 |
| CBO | 2027 Q4“2027q4,unemployment_rate,4.372,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.372 |
| CBO | 2027 Q4“2027q4,unemployment_rate,4.388,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.388 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.41%
- Spread
- +0.22%
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.52%
- Reporting
- 3
- Basis
- Quarterly average
2026 Q3 · Quarterly average
United States · 2 institutionsEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 2026 Q3“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2026 Q3 column · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 4.1 |
| CBO | 2026 Q3“2026q3,unemployment_rate,4.56,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.56 |
| CBO | 2026 Q3“2026q3,unemployment_rate,4.349,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.349 |
| CBO | 2026 Q3“2026q3,unemployment_rate,4.37,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.37 |
| CBO | 2026 Q3“2026q3,unemployment_rate,4.187,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.187 |
| CBO | 2026 Q3“2026q3,unemployment_rate,4.349,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.349 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.33%
- Spread
- +0.46%
- Low
- 4.10%
- High
- 4.56%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Quarterly average
2027 Q1 · Quarterly average
United States · 2 institutionsEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 2027 Q1“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 Q1 column · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 4.2 |
| CBO | 2027 Q1“2027q1,unemployment_rate,4.55,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.55 |
| CBO | 2027 Q1“2027q1,unemployment_rate,4.256,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.256 |
| CBO | 2027 Q1“2027q1,unemployment_rate,4.382,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.382 |
| CBO | 2027 Q1“2027q1,unemployment_rate,4.27,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.27 |
| CBO | 2027 Q1“2027q1,unemployment_rate,4.366,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.366 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.38%
- Spread
- +0.35%
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.55%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Quarterly average
2027 Q2 · Quarterly average
United States · 2 institutionsEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 2027 Q2“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 Q2 column · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 4.2 |
| CBO | 2027 Q2“2027q2,unemployment_rate,4.541,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.541 |
| CBO | 2027 Q2“2027q2,unemployment_rate,4.325,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.325 |
| CBO | 2027 Q2“2027q2,unemployment_rate,4.389,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.389 |
| CBO | 2027 Q2“2027q2,unemployment_rate,4.305,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.305 |
| CBO | 2027 Q2“2027q2,unemployment_rate,4.374,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.374 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.37%
- Spread
- +0.34%
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.54%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Quarterly average
2027 full year · Annual average
United States · 2 institutionsEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 2027 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 4.2 |
| Fannie Mae | 2027 full year“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |” — Forecast table, Unemployment Rate, 2027 annual column · source ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 4.3 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,unemployment_rate,4.535,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.535 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,unemployment_rate,4.35,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.35 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,unemployment_rate,4.393,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.393 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,unemployment_rate,4.322,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.322 |
| CBO | 2027 full year“2027,unemployment_rate,4.377,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.377 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.37%
- Spread
- +0.33%
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.54%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Annual average
2027 Q3 · Quarterly average
United States · 2 institutionsEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 2027 Q3“| Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |” — Table, Unemployment Rate row, 2027 Q3 column · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 4.3 |
| CBO | 2027 Q3“2027q3,unemployment_rate,4.53,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.53 |
| CBO | 2027 Q3“2027q3,unemployment_rate,4.394,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.394 |
| CBO | 2027 Q3“2027q3,unemployment_rate,4.398,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.398 |
| CBO | 2027 Q3“2027q3,unemployment_rate,4.34,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.34 |
| CBO | 2027 Q3“2027q3,unemployment_rate,4.381,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.381 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.42%
- Spread
- +0.23%
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.53%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Quarterly average
2028 full year · Annual average
United States · 2 institutionsEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deloitte | 2028 full year“A slowdown in employment growth along with more modest declines in the workforce participation rate will allow the unemployment rate to drift upward from an expected 4.2% average in 2026 to 4.3% in 2028.” — Labor market · source ↗ | 2026-09-29 | 4.3% in 2028 |
| CBO | 2028 full year“2028,unemployment_rate,4.478,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.478 |
| CBO | 2028 full year“2028,unemployment_rate,4.426,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.426 |
| CBO | 2028 full year“2028,unemployment_rate,4.404,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.404 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.39%
- Spread
- +0.18%
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.48%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Annual average
2026 full year · Annual average
United States · 2 institutionsEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| NABE | 2026 full year““The labor market continues to outperform expectations, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to **71,000**, and lowered their unemployment rate forecast to **4.2%**,” added **NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE**, senior economist, KPMG.” — Survey Highlights, statement by NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev · source ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 4.2% |
| NABE | 2026 full year““The labor market continues to outperform expectations, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to **71,000**, and lowered their unemployment rate forecast to **4.2%**,” added **NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE**, senior economist, KPMG.” — Survey Highlights · source ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 4.2% |
| NABE | 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added **NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG**.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-10-10 | 4.4% |
| NABE | 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added **NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG**.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 4.4% |
| NABE | 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 4.4% |
| NABE | 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added **NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG**.” — Summary, second quoted paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 4.4% |
| NABE | 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 4.4% |
| NABE | 2026 full year““The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG.” — Summary · source ↗ | 2026-08-26 | 4.4% |
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 full year“| 2026 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 34.6 | 40.7 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2026 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.25%
- Spread
- +0.10%
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Annual average
2025 Q4 · Quarterly average
United States · 2 institutionsEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2025 Q4“2025q4,unemployment_rate,4.532,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.532 |
| CBO | 2025 Q4“2025q4,unemployment_rate,4.467,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.467 |
| Fed | 2025 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2025 column · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 4.5 |
| CBO | 2025 Q4“2025q4,unemployment_rate,4.325,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.325 |
| CBO | 2025 Q4“2025q4,unemployment_rate,4.004,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.004 |
| CBO | 2025 Q4“2025q4,unemployment_rate,4.354,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.354 |
Readout
- Consensus
- 4.52%
- Spread
- +0.03%
- Low
- 4.50%
- High
- 4.53%
- Reporting
- 2
- Basis
- Quarterly average
2023 Q4 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2023 Q4“2023q4,unemployment_rate,3.9,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 3.9 |
Readout
- Low
- 3.90%
- High
- 3.90%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2023 full year · Annual average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2023 full year“2023,unemployment_rate,3.666,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 3.666 |
Readout
- Low
- 3.67%
- High
- 3.67%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2024 Q1 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2024 Q1“2024q1,unemployment_rate,3.975,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 3.975 |
Readout
- Low
- 3.98%
- High
- 3.98%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2024 Q2 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2024 Q2“2024q2,unemployment_rate,3.881,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.881 |
| CBO | 2024 Q2“2024q2,unemployment_rate,4.11,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.11 |
Readout
- Low
- 3.88%
- High
- 3.88%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2024 Q3 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2024 Q3“2024q3,unemployment_rate,3.915,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.915 |
| CBO | 2024 Q3“2024q3,unemployment_rate,4.246,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.246 |
Readout
- Low
- 3.92%
- High
- 3.92%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2024 Q4 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2024 Q4“2024q4,unemployment_rate,4.185,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.185 |
| CBO | 2024 Q4“2024q4,unemployment_rate,3.932,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.932 |
| CBO | 2024 Q4“2024q4,unemployment_rate,4.371,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.371 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.18%
- High
- 4.18%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2024 full year · Annual average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2024 full year“2024,unemployment_rate,4.046,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.046 |
| CBO | 2024 full year“2024,unemployment_rate,3.882,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.882 |
| CBO | 2024 full year“2024,unemployment_rate,4.175,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.175 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.05%
- High
- 4.05%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2025 Q1 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2025 Q1“2025q1,unemployment_rate,4.229,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.229 |
| CBO | 2025 Q1“2025q1,unemployment_rate,3.957,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.957 |
| CBO | 2025 Q1“2025q1,unemployment_rate,4.409,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.409 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.23%
- High
- 4.23%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2025 Q2 · Quarter-end
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Morgan | 2025 Q2“According to J.P. Morgan Research, however, U.S. GDP growth is set to slow slightly this year to 2.4% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024 (on a full-year basis), while the unemployment rate is forecast to gradually increase to a peak of 4.2% around the middle of the year, up from January’s reading of 4.0%.” — What's the US growth outlook section, paragraph 2 · source ↗ | 2025-02-28 | 4.2% |
Readout
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.20%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarter-end
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2025 Q2 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2025 Q2“2025q2,unemployment_rate,4.259,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.259 |
| CBO | 2025 Q2“2025q2,unemployment_rate,3.957,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.957 |
| CBO | 2025 Q2“2025q2,unemployment_rate,4.403,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.403 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.26%
- High
- 4.26%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2025 Q3 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2025 Q3“2025q3,unemployment_rate,4.3,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.3 |
| CBO | 2025 Q3“2025q3,unemployment_rate,4.415,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.415 |
| CBO | 2025 Q3“2025q3,unemployment_rate,4.294,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.294 |
| CBO | 2025 Q3“2025q3,unemployment_rate,3.975,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.975 |
| CBO | 2025 Q3“2025q3,unemployment_rate,4.375,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.375 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2025 Q4 · Q4 average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 2025 Q4“Unemployment rate 4.5” — Table 1 · 2025 median · source ↗ | 2025-06-18 | 4.5% |
| Fed | 2025 Q4“Unemployment rate 4.4” — Table 1, page 2 · 2025 median · source ↗ | 2025-03-19 | 4.4% |
Readout
- Low
- 4.50%
- High
- 4.50%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Q4 average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2025 full year · Annual average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,unemployment_rate,4.274,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.274 |
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,unemployment_rate,4.287,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.287 |
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,unemployment_rate,4.277,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.277 |
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,unemployment_rate,3.973,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 3.973 |
| CBO | 2025 full year“2025,unemployment_rate,4.385,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.385 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.27%
- High
- 4.27%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2025 full year · Full year
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Morgan | 2025 full year“According to J.P. Morgan Research, however, U.S. GDP growth is set to slow slightly this year to 2.4% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024 (on a full-year basis), while the unemployment rate is forecast to gradually increase to a peak of 4.2% around the middle of the year, up from January’s reading of 4.0%.” — What’s the US growth outlook? section, paragraph beginning “According to J.P. Morgan Research” · source ↗ | 2025-02-28 | 4.2% |
Readout
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.20%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Full year
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2026 Q1 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2026 Q1“2026q1,unemployment_rate,4.549,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.549 |
| CBO | 2026 Q1“2026q1,unemployment_rate,4.517,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.517 |
| CBO | 2026 Q1“2026q1,unemployment_rate,4.347,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.347 |
| CBO | 2026 Q1“2026q1,unemployment_rate,4.078,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.078 |
| CBO | 2026 Q1“2026q1,unemployment_rate,4.344,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.344 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.55%
- High
- 4.55%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2026 Q2 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2026 Q2“2026q2,unemployment_rate,4.558,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.558 |
| CBO | 2026 Q2“2026q2,unemployment_rate,4.478,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.478 |
| CBO | 2026 Q2“2026q2,unemployment_rate,4.361,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.361 |
| CBO | 2026 Q2“2026q2,unemployment_rate,4.137,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-06.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-06-01 | 4.137 |
| CBO | 2026 Q2“2026q2,unemployment_rate,4.343,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2024-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2024-02-01 | 4.343 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.56%
- High
- 4.56%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2026 Q3 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q3“The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will range from 4.2 percent to 4.3 percent from this quarter through the second quarter of 2027.” — Unemployment outlook paragraph · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.2 percent |
Readout
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.20%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2026 Q4 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q4“| 2026:Q4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 58.4 | 66.4 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2026:Q4 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
| Philadelphia Fed | 2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Unemployment Rate (%) | New 4.5” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗ | 2026-05-15 | 4.5% |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2027 Q1 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2027 Q1“| 2027:Q1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 64.0 | 94.9 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q1 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2027 Q2 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2027 Q2“| 2027:Q2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 97.3 | 80.4 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q2 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2027 Q3 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2027 Q3“| 2027:Q3 | N.A. | 2.2 | N.A. | 4.3 | N.A. | 56.2 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027:Q3 row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2027 full year · Annual average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2027 full year“| 2027 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 64.4 | 75.4 |” — Median Forecasts table, 2027 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2028 Q1 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2028 Q1“2028q1,unemployment_rate,4.507,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.507 |
| CBO | 2028 Q1“2028q1,unemployment_rate,4.426,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.426 |
| CBO | 2028 Q1“2028q1,unemployment_rate,4.406,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.406 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.51%
- High
- 4.51%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2028 Q2 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2028 Q2“2028q2,unemployment_rate,4.49,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.49 |
| CBO | 2028 Q2“2028q2,unemployment_rate,4.426,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.426 |
| CBO | 2028 Q2“2028q2,unemployment_rate,4.406,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.406 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.49%
- High
- 4.49%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2028 Q3 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2028 Q3“2028q3,unemployment_rate,4.469,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.469 |
| CBO | 2028 Q3“2028q3,unemployment_rate,4.426,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.426 |
| CBO | 2028 Q3“2028q3,unemployment_rate,4.404,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.404 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.47%
- High
- 4.47%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2028 Q4 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institutionEmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus
| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2028 Q4“2028q4,unemployment_rate,4.446,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.446 |
| CBO | 2028 Q4“2028q4,unemployment_rate,4.425,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-09.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-09-01 | 4.425 |
| CBO | 2028 Q4“2028q4,unemployment_rate,4.399,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2025-01.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2025-01-01 | 4.399 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.45%
- High
- 4.45%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2028 full year · Annual average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2028 full year“| 2028 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 | N.A. | N.A. |” — Median Forecasts table, 2028 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.2 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.20%
- High
- 4.20%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2028 full year · Full year
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deloitte | 2028 full year“A slowdown in employment growth along with more modest declines in the workforce participation rate will allow the unemployment rate to drift upward from an expected 4.2% average in 2026 to 4.3% in 2028.” — Labor market section · source ↗ | 2026-09-29 | 4.3% |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Full year
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2029 Q1 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2029 Q1“2029q1,unemployment_rate,4.422,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.422 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.42%
- High
- 4.42%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2029 Q2 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2029 Q2“2029q2,unemployment_rate,4.398,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.398 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.40%
- High
- 4.40%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2029 Q3 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2029 Q3“2029q3,unemployment_rate,4.374,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.374 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.37%
- High
- 4.37%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2029 Q4 · Quarterly average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2029 Q4“2029q4,unemployment_rate,4.352,projected” — economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.352 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.35%
- High
- 4.35%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Quarterly average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2029 full year · Annual average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBO | 2029 full year“2029,unemployment_rate,4.387,projected” — economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv, unemployment_rate · source ↗ | 2026-02-01 | 4.387 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.39%
- High
- 4.39%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.
2029 full year · Annual average
United States · 1 institution| Institution | Period | Reported | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Fed | 2029 full year“| 2029 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | N.A. | N.A. |” — Median Forecasts table, 2029 annual row, New Unemployment Rate column · source ↗ | 2026-08-14 | 4.3 |
Readout
- Low
- 4.30%
- High
- 4.30%
- Reporting
- 1
- Basis
- Annual average
One institution reporting. No consensus claimed.