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    U.S. unemployment rate

    Projected share of the U.S. civilian labor force that is unemployed.

    United States · %9 extracted figures5 institutions1 comparable groups

    Revisions on this metric

    1 on record
    2025-06-18Fed 2025 Q4 · Q4 average4.4%→4.5%

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly average

    4 institutions
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    4.20%4.35%4.50%CONSENSUSJUN 25JAN 26JUL 26Wells Fargo · 4.2% · 2026-07-30RBC · 4.3% · 2026-07-13Fannie Mae · 4.4% · 2026-07-10Fed · 4.5 · 2025-06-18Fed 4.5

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Wells Fargo2026 Q4“Unemployment Rate | 2026 4Q | 4.2” — U.S. Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-304.2%
    RBC2026 Q4“Unemployment rate (%) | 2026 Q4 | 4.3” — U.S. Forecast Detail · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-134.3%
    Fannie Mae2026 Q4“Unemployment Rate | 26.4 | 4.4” — Economic Forecast table · 2026 Q4 · source ↗2026-07-104.4%
    Fed2026 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2026 column · source ↗2025-06-184.5
    Readout
    Consensus
    4.35%
    Spread
    +0.30%
    Low
    4.20%
    High
    4.50%
    Reporting
    4
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    2025 Q4 · Q4 average

    1 institution
    Forecasts by report dateUnited States
    4.40%4.50%CONSENSUSMAR 25MAY 25JUN 25Fed · 4.5% · 2025-06-18Fed · 4.4% · 2025-03-19Fed 4.4%

    EmphasisedOther institutionsConsensus

    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fed2025 Q4“Unemployment rate 4.5” — Table 1 · 2025 median · source ↗2025-06-184.5%
    Fed2025 Q4“Unemployment rate 4.4” — Table 1, page 2 · 2025 median · source ↗2025-03-194.4%
    Readout
    Low
    4.50%
    High
    4.50%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Q4 average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2026 Q4 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Philadelphia Fed2026 Q4“2026:Q4 | Unemployment Rate (%) | New 4.5” — Median Forecasts for Selected Variables · 2026:Q4 · source ↗2026-05-154.5%
    Readout
    Low
    4.50%
    High
    4.50%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2025 Q4 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fed2025 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2025 column · source ↗2025-06-184.5
    Readout
    Low
    4.50%
    High
    4.50%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.

    2027 Q4 · Quarterly average

    1 institution
    Single reported figureUnited States
    InstitutionPeriodReportedForecast
    Fed2027 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2027 column · source ↗2025-06-184.4
    Readout
    Low
    4.40%
    High
    4.40%
    Reporting
    1
    Basis
    Quarterly average

    One institution reporting — no consensus is claimed.