PLANETARYINSIGHTS

    Real GDP growth 2026 full year 2.1 2.4 ▲ EIAReal GDP growth 2027 full year 2.6 2.8 ▲ EIAHeadline PCE inflation 2026 Q4 3.95 3.94 ▼ Cleveland FedHeadline CPI inflation 2026 Q4 4.24 4.40 ▲ Cleveland FedCore CPI inflation 2026 Q4 3.02 3.40 ▲ Cleveland FedCore PCE inflation 2026 Q4 3.33 3.38 ▲ Cleveland Fed

    How the forecasts held up.

    Each projection is compared against the outturn for the same metric, geography, target period and measurement basis. A forecast published after its target period began is not counted, and a period with no outturn yet is simply absent.

    414 scored forecasts14 resolved periods1883 awaiting an outturnCompared against the latest outturn

    Earliest recordedLatest

    Mean absolute error · institution × forecast horizon

    4 institutions · % · darker is a larger miss
    Mean absolute error by institution and forecast horizon0-3 months3-6 months6-12 months12+ monthsFed— Federal Reserve · 3-6 months · mean absolute error 0.31 over 6 forecasts 0.31 Federal Reserve · 6-12 months · mean absolute error 0.15 over 3 forecasts 0.15—Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs · 0-3 months · mean absolute error 0.16 over 1 forecast 0.16— Goldman Sachs · 6-12 months · mean absolute error 0.35 over 2 forecasts 0.35—CBO Congressional Budget Office · 0-3 months · mean absolute error 0.84 over 57 forecasts 0.84 Congressional Budget Office · 3-6 months · mean absolute error 1.20 over 44 forecasts 1.20 Congressional Budget Office · 6-12 months · mean absolute error 0.87 over 95 forecasts 0.87 Congressional Budget Office · 12+ months · mean absolute error 1.05 over 124 forecasts 1.05Morgan Stanley— Morgan Stanley · 3-6 months · mean absolute error 1.05 over 2 forecasts 1.05——

    40 in $/barrel, 36 in $/MMBtu, 4 in $/gallon scored but not shown above. Errors in different units do not average into one number.

    Every scored forecast

    Largest miss first
    InstitutionMetricPeriodForecastActualErrorHorizon
    EIABrent crude oilMonthly average spot priceOctober 202680$123.93/bbl−$43.93/bbl0-3 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2026 Q258.71$95.75/bbl−$37.04/bbl0-3 months
    EIAWTI crude oilMonthly average spot priceOctober 2026$67/bbl$102.07/bbl−$35.07/bbl0-3 months
    EIABrent crude oilMonthly average spot priceOctober 202692$123.93/bbl−$31.93/bbl0-3 months
    EIABrent crude oilMonthly average spot priceSeptember 202685$114.16/bbl−$29.16/bbl0-3 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2026 Q359.05$87.22/bbl−$28.17/bbl3-6 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2026 Q267.92$95.75/bbl−$27.83/bbl12+ months
    EIAWTI crude oilMonthly average spot priceOctober 202676$102.07/bbl−$26.07/bbl0-3 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2026 Q271.26$95.75/bbl−$24.49/bbl12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2026 Q274.46$95.75/bbl−$21.29/bbl12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2026 Q367.83$87.22/bbl−$19.39/bbl12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2026 Q370.84$87.22/bbl−$16.38/bbl12+ months
    EIAWTI crude oilMonthly average spot priceSeptember 202681$97.31/bbl−$16.31/bbl0-3 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2025 Q475.9$59.64/bbl+$16.26/bbl12+ months
    EIAWTI crude oilMonthly average spot priceOctober 202687$102.07/bbl−$15.07/bbl0-3 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2026 Q373.89$87.22/bbl−$13.33/bbl12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2025 Q277.9$64.63/bbl+$13.27/bbl6-12 months
    EIABrent crude oilMonthly average spot priceOctober 2026111$123.93/bbl−$12.93/bbl0-3 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2025 Q472.27$59.64/bbl+$12.63/bbl12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilAnnual average spot price2025 full year77.46$65.46/bbl+$12.00/bbl6-12 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2025 Q376.8$65.74/bbl+$11.06/bbl12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2024 Q480.88$70.69/bbl+$10.19/bbl3-6 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2026 Q32.96412.70%−9.74%12+ months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2026 Q33.43512.70%−9.26%6-12 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2026 Q33.66612.70%−9.03%12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2025 Q273.51$64.63/bbl+$8.88/bbl12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2025 Q468.25$59.64/bbl+$8.61/bbl6-12 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2026 Q34.15612.70%−8.54%3-6 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2025 Q12.30510.70%−8.39%6-12 months
    CBOWTI crude oilAnnual average spot price2025 full year73.21$65.46/bbl+$7.75/bbl6-12 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2026 Q12.2879.90%−7.61%12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2025 Q179.25$71.84/bbl+$7.41/bbl6-12 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2026 Q12.5749.90%−7.33%12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2025 Q372.86$65.74/bbl+$7.12/bbl12+ months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2025 Q14.01910.70%−6.68%0-3 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2024 Q382.79$76.24/bbl+$6.55/bbl0-3 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2026 Q13.49.90%−6.50%3-6 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2026 Q22.7989.00%−6.20%12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2024 Q275.87$81.71/bbl−$5.84/bbl0-3 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2026 Q23.4659.00%−5.54%6-12 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2026 Q23.4969.00%−5.50%12+ months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2025 Q22.1917.60%−5.41%3-6 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2026 Q23.8159.00%−5.19%0-3 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2025 Q23.2267.60%−4.37%12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2024 Q474.86$70.69/bbl+$4.17/bbl6-12 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2025 Q268.69$64.63/bbl+$4.06/bbl3-6 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2026 Q168.07$71.98/bbl−$3.91/bbl12+ months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2024 Q32.3616.00%−3.64%3-6 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2024 Q42.557-0.70%+3.26%6-12 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q31.264.50%−3.24%12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2026 Q175.13$71.98/bbl+$3.15/bbl12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilAnnual average spot price2025 full year68.59$65.46/bbl+$3.13/bbl0-3 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q31.5494.50%−2.95%6-12 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2025 Q168.9$71.84/bbl−$2.94/bbl0-3 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2024 Q41.4554.30%−2.84%3-6 months
    CBOBusiness investmentAnnual growth2025 full year2.5935.43%−2.84%0-3 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2024 Q21.0793.90%−2.82%0-3 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q31.6824.50%−2.82%12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2025 Q368.5$65.74/bbl+$2.76/bbl6-12 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2024 Q41.5384.30%−2.76%6-12 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q21.4494.20%−2.75%12+ months
    CBOBusiness investmentAnnual growth2025 full year2.6895.43%−2.74%6-12 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q31.1583.80%−2.64%12+ months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q21.2063.80%−2.59%12+ months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q21.7134.20%−2.49%3-6 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q31.3873.80%−2.41%12+ months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2024 Q21.2413.60%−2.36%0-3 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2025 Q174.19$71.84/bbl+$2.35/bbl6-12 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2024 Q31.43.70%−2.30%3-6 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q21.9034.20%−2.30%6-12 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2025 Q31.463.70%−2.24%12+ months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2024 Q21.3893.60%−2.21%0-3 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q42.4060.20%+2.21%12+ months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q12.09-0.10%+2.19%0-3 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q21.6213.80%−2.18%12+ months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q31.6283.80%−2.17%12+ months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q21.6483.80%−2.15%12+ months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q31.4633.60%−2.14%3-6 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q31.5083.60%−2.09%12+ months
    EIAWTI crude oilMonthly average spot priceOctober 2026100$102.07/bbl−$2.07/bbl0-3 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q31.8853.90%−2.01%6-12 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q22.0274.00%−1.97%3-6 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q31.8553.80%−1.94%6-12 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q31.6813.60%−1.92%12+ months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q12.0080.10%+1.91%6-12 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2025 Q31.7973.70%−1.90%6-12 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2025 Q31.8143.70%−1.89%12+ months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q11.9850.10%+1.89%0-3 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q11.777-0.10%+1.88%6-12 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q22.1274.00%−1.87%6-12 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q31.9283.80%−1.87%3-6 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q11.9650.10%+1.86%6-12 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q42.0090.20%+1.81%0-3 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q32.0973.90%−1.80%12+ months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q22.0413.80%−1.76%6-12 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q22.2484.00%−1.75%12+ months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2024 Q31.6713.40%−1.73%0-3 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q41.9170.20%+1.72%12+ months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q31.7673.40%−1.63%12+ months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q31.9713.60%−1.63%12+ months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q32.2843.90%−1.62%12+ months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q31.8173.40%−1.58%12+ months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2025 Q32.2593.80%−1.54%6-12 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q22.2613.80%−1.54%0-3 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2024 Q31.6623.20%−1.54%3-6 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q41.7340.20%+1.53%6-12 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2025 Q12.0250.60%+1.42%0-3 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2024 Q32.0323.40%−1.37%3-6 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2025 Q11.9170.60%+1.32%6-12 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q32.0853.40%−1.31%3-6 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q32.1073.40%−1.29%6-12 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2025 Q40.8382.10%−1.26%0-3 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q32.1523.40%−1.25%12+ months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q11.119-0.10%+1.22%6-12 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2025 Q40.6841.90%−1.22%0-3 months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2026 Q34.082.87+1.213-6 months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2025 Q12.934.14−1.210-3 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2025 Q43.2732.10%+1.17%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q33.6214.76%−1.14%12+ months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2024 Q32.5633.70%−1.14%0-3 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2024 Q32.1193.20%−1.08%0-3 months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2024 Q43.512.44+1.076-12 months
    Morgan StanleyReal GDP growthQ4/Q42025 Q41.0%2.05%−1.05%3-6 months
    Morgan StanleyReal GDP growthQ4/Q42025 Q41% 4Q/4Q2.05%−1.05%3-6 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2025 Q11.5890.60%+0.99%6-12 months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2026 Q33.832.87+0.9612+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2026 Q33.82.87+0.9312+ months
    CBOPersonal consumptionAnnual growth2025 full year1.72.63%−0.93%6-12 months
    CBOProductivity growthAnnual growth2025 full year1.5272.44%−0.92%6-12 months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2024 Q33.012.11+0.903-6 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q33.8624.76%−0.90%12+ months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2025 Q15.2094.33%+0.88%6-12 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldAnnual average2026 full year3.6634.54%−0.88%12+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2026 Q13.854.71−0.8612+ months
    CBOPersonal consumptionAnnual growth2025 full year1.7682.63%−0.86%6-12 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q33.9274.76%−0.83%12+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2026 Q23.772.95+0.820-3 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q11.6812.50%−0.82%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2024 Q34.7663.95%+0.82%3-6 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q21.2942.10%−0.81%0-3 months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2024 Q21.8182.60%−0.78%0-3 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q362.38161.60%+0.78%12+ months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q262.46161.70%+0.76%12+ months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q362.3661.60%+0.76%3-6 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q23.6874.42%−0.73%12+ months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q33.073.80%−0.73%12+ months
    CBOProductivity growthAnnual growth2025 full year1.7152.44%−0.73%0-3 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2025 Q14.9274.21%+0.72%6-12 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2024 Q45.1164.40%+0.72%3-6 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q362.31561.60%+0.71%12+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2025 Q33.743.03+0.7112+ months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q11.4040.70%+0.70%12+ months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2024 Q375.55$76.24/bbl−$0.69/bbl3-6 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q262.3961.70%+0.69%0-3 months
    CBOProductivity growthAnnual growth2025 full year1.7532.44%−0.69%6-12 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2024 Q45.3314.65%+0.68%3-6 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q362.2861.60%+0.68%6-12 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q11.8332.50%−0.67%12+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2024 Q22.722.06+0.660-3 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2024 Q41.7422.40%−0.66%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q262.35761.70%+0.66%12+ months
    FedReal GDP growthQ4/Q42025 Q41.4%2.05%−0.65%3-6 months
    FedReal GDP growthQ4/Q42025 Q41.42.05%−0.65%3-6 months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2026 Q23.592.95+0.6412+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2026 Q33.512.87+0.6412+ months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2025 Q24.964.33%+0.63%6-12 months
    CBOFederal funds rateAnnual average2025 full year4.8354.21%+0.63%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q262.3161.70%+0.61%6-12 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldAnnual average2026 full year3.9334.54%−0.61%12+ months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2025 Q42.7072.10%+0.61%6-12 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldAnnual average2026 full year3.9354.54%−0.60%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q34.1564.76%−0.60%3-6 months
    CBONatural gasAnnual average spot price2026 full year4.033.43+0.6012+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2025 Q13.544.14−0.606-12 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2024 Q34.5463.95%+0.60%0-3 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q11.2930.70%+0.59%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q34.1774.76%−0.58%6-12 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q21.5192.10%−0.58%12+ months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q14.213.64%+0.57%12+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2026 Q23.522.95+0.5712+ months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2025 Q44.463.90%+0.56%12+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2024 Q43.02.44+0.563-6 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q33.2433.80%−0.56%12+ months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q11.2440.70%+0.54%3-6 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q162.53962.00%+0.54%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2024 Q44.8194.28%+0.54%6-12 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q11.9632.50%−0.54%3-6 months
    CBONatural gasAnnual average spot price2026 full year3.963.43+0.5312+ months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2025 Q41.3761.90%−0.52%12+ months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2025 Q21.5862.10%−0.51%6-12 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q33.2893.80%−0.51%3-6 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2024 Q41.5912.10%−0.51%3-6 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q21.7022.20%−0.50%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q44.0044.50%−0.50%12+ months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q41.6891.20%+0.49%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q23.9364.42%−0.48%12+ months
    CBOBusiness investmentQuarterly SAAR2025 Q33.3163.80%−0.48%12+ months
    CBO3-month bill rateAnnual average2025 full year4.5434.07%+0.47%6-12 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q21.6292.10%−0.47%12+ months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2024 Q41.9312.40%−0.47%3-6 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2025 Q22.5662.10%+0.47%3-6 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q34.564.10%+0.46%3-6 months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2026 Q14.254.71−0.4612+ months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q362.05961.60%+0.46%12+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2025 Q33.483.03+0.4512+ months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q23.1823.62%−0.44%12+ months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2025 Q24.6684.23%+0.44%6-12 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q13.7664.20%−0.43%12+ months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2025 Q44.1633.73%+0.43%12+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2025 Q44.163.73+0.4312+ months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2025 Q34.714.29%+0.42%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q24.0064.42%−0.41%12+ months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q41.6121.20%+0.41%12+ months
    EIARetail gasolineMonthly average retail priceOctober 20263.8982899999999998$4.31/gal−$0.41/gal0-3 months
    CBOCore PCE inflationAnnual growth2025 full year2.372.77%−0.40%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q162.40462.00%+0.40%12+ months
    CBOHeadline PCE inflationAnnual growth2025 full year2.1912.59%−0.40%0-3 months
    CBOHeadline CPI inflationAnnual growth2025 full year2.2352.63%−0.40%0-3 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q262.09961.70%+0.40%12+ months
    CBOHeadline PCE inflationAnnual growth2025 full year2.1962.59%−0.39%6-12 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2025 Q33.7074.10%−0.39%12+ months
    CBOHeadline PCE inflationAnnual growth2025 full year2.2082.59%−0.38%6-12 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q33.2913.67%−0.38%12+ months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2025 Q33.9134.29%−0.38%6-12 months
    CBOReal GDP growthCalendar year2025 full year1.9712.34%−0.37%6-12 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q33.4273.80%−0.37%12+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2025 Q22.823.19−0.373-6 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2025 Q33.734.10%−0.37%6-12 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2025 Q14.8114.45%+0.36%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q162.3562.00%+0.35%3-6 months
    CBONatural gasAnnual average spot price2025 full year3.873.52+0.356-12 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldAnnual average2026 full year4.1914.54%−0.35%3-6 months
    FedReal GDP growthQ4/Q42025 Q41.7%2.05%−0.35%6-12 months
    Goldman SachsReal GDP growthQ4/Q42025 Q41.7%2.05%−0.35%6-12 months
    Goldman SachsReal GDP growthQ4/Q42025 Q41.7%2.05%−0.35%6-12 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q12.1572.50%−0.34%12+ months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q33.4583.80%−0.34%6-12 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q23.2813.62%−0.34%0-3 months
    CBOCore PCE inflationAnnual growth2025 full year2.4372.77%−0.34%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2025 Q362.63262.30%+0.33%6-12 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2025 Q33.9584.29%−0.33%12+ months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q23.963.63%+0.33%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateAnnual average2025 full year3.9734.30%−0.33%6-12 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q24.0934.42%−0.33%0-3 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q13.9163.59%+0.33%12+ months
    EIARetail gasolineMonthly average retail priceSeptember 20264.0297320000000001$4.36/gal−$0.33/gal0-3 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q33.9754.30%−0.32%12+ months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q21.8762.20%−0.32%12+ months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q13.2683.59%−0.32%12+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2025 Q23.513.19+0.3212+ months
    CBOCore PCE inflationAnnual growth2025 full year2.4552.77%−0.32%0-3 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2025 Q23.9134.23%−0.32%3-6 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2025 Q34.4144.10%+0.31%12+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2026 Q23.262.95+0.3112+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q14.4094.10%+0.31%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2025 Q462.19162.50%−0.31%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2025 Q24.6644.36%+0.30%12+ months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2024 Q34.9585.26%−0.30%3-6 months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2024 Q32.412.11+0.300-3 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2025 Q41.6051.90%−0.29%6-12 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q23.3283.62%−0.29%12+ months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2024 Q362.41262.70%−0.29%0-3 months
    CBOReal GDP growthCalendar year2025 full year2.0572.34%−0.29%6-12 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2024 Q33.9154.20%−0.29%0-3 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldAnnual average2025 full year4.5754.29%+0.29%6-12 months
    FedHeadline PCE inflationQ4/Q42025 Q43.0%2.72%+0.28%3-6 months
    FedHeadline PCE inflationQ4/Q42025 Q43.02.72%+0.28%3-6 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q33.3893.67%−0.28%3-6 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2025 Q23.9584.23%−0.27%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2024 Q44.3714.10%+0.27%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2025 Q262.67162.40%+0.27%3-6 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2025 Q43.4593.73%−0.27%12+ months
    CBOCore CPI inflationAnnual growth2025 full year2.5672.84%−0.27%0-3 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q34.374.10%+0.27%12+ months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2025 Q21.8342.10%−0.27%12+ months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q22.4592.20%+0.26%6-12 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q24.5584.30%+0.26%0-3 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q23.3743.63%−0.26%12+ months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2024 Q34.7354.99%−0.25%3-6 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2025 Q24.0794.33%−0.25%3-6 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2025 Q34.5114.26%+0.25%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q34.3494.10%+0.25%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q34.3494.10%+0.25%6-12 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q33.4213.67%−0.25%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2025 Q34.0114.26%−0.25%12+ months
    CBOParticipation rateAnnual average2025 full year62.64862.40%+0.25%0-3 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2025 Q24.1134.36%−0.25%3-6 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q13.9544.20%−0.25%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q23.9574.20%−0.24%6-12 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q23.3893.63%−0.24%0-3 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2026 Q10.940.70%+0.24%12+ months
    CBOECI growthAnnual growth2025 full year3.7073.47%+0.24%6-12 months
    CBOWTI crude oilQuarterly average spot price2026 Q171.74$71.98/bbl−$0.24/bbl12+ months
    CBO3-month bill rateAnnual average2025 full year3.8344.07%−0.24%6-12 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2024 Q25.0075.24%−0.23%0-3 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q11.6311.40%+0.23%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2025 Q34.034.26%−0.23%6-12 months
    CBO3-month bill rateAnnual average2025 full year3.8424.07%−0.23%0-3 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2025 Q43.8774.10%−0.22%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q14.0784.30%−0.22%12+ months
    CBOReal GDP growthCalendar year2025 full year2.1242.34%−0.22%0-3 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2025 Q24.1424.36%−0.22%6-12 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q14.5174.30%+0.22%3-6 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2025 Q44.3154.10%+0.22%12+ months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q21.9872.20%−0.21%0-3 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2025 Q14.2454.45%−0.21%0-3 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2024 Q35.1954.99%+0.21%0-3 months
    CBOHeadline CPI inflationAnnual growth2025 full year2.432.63%−0.20%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2025 Q162.70462.50%+0.20%0-3 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q24.2164.42%−0.20%6-12 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q24.4034.20%+0.20%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldAnnual average2025 full year4.094.29%−0.20%6-12 months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2025 Q43.533.73−0.206-12 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldAnnual average2025 full year4.0934.29%−0.20%0-3 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2024 Q24.6444.45%+0.19%0-3 months
    CBOFederal funds rateAnnual average2025 full year4.0174.21%−0.19%0-3 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2025 Q43.7083.90%−0.19%12+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2026 Q14.524.71−0.1912+ months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2025 Q41.3851.20%+0.19%6-12 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionAnnual growth2025 full year2.4422.63%−0.18%0-3 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q13.4583.64%−0.18%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2025 Q44.284.10%+0.18%0-3 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q24.4784.30%+0.18%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2025 Q162.32262.50%−0.18%6-12 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q11.5761.40%+0.18%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q44.3254.50%−0.17%6-12 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q21.9262.10%−0.17%12+ months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2025 Q43.93.73+0.1712+ months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2025 Q362.46962.30%+0.17%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2024 Q43.9324.10%−0.17%3-6 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q24.1374.30%−0.16%12+ months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q23.4623.62%−0.16%6-12 months
    EIANatural gasMonthly average spot priceOctober 20263.14717100000000022.99+0.160-3 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2025 Q43.5733.73%−0.16%6-12 months
    Goldman SachsReal GDP growthAnnual growth2025 full year2.5%2.34%+0.16%0-3 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2025 Q43.7463.90%−0.15%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateAnnual average2025 full year62.25362.40%−0.15%6-12 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q44.3544.50%−0.15%12+ months
    EIARetail gasolineMonthly average retail priceOctober 20264.1650489999999998$4.31/gal−$0.14/gal0-3 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2026 Q162.14362.00%+0.14%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q13.9574.10%−0.14%6-12 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q13.4483.59%−0.14%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2024 Q44.4164.28%+0.14%3-6 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2024 Q462.36762.50%−0.13%3-6 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q11.5321.40%+0.13%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q14.2294.10%+0.13%0-3 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2025 Q262.27162.40%−0.13%6-12 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2025 Q14.4584.33%+0.13%6-12 months
    CBOFederal funds rateAnnual average2025 full year4.0834.21%−0.13%6-12 months
    EIANatural gasMonthly average spot priceOctober 20262.864492.99−0.130-3 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2024 Q25.2085.33%−0.12%0-3 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2025 Q24.2084.33%−0.12%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2025 Q14.3284.45%−0.12%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2025 Q462.3862.50%−0.12%0-3 months
    CBOHeadline CPI inflationAnnual growth2025 full year2.5152.63%−0.12%6-12 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q23.5123.63%−0.12%12+ months
    EIANatural gasMonthly average spot priceOctober 20262.87252699999999982.99−0.120-3 months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2025 Q43.9854.10%−0.11%6-12 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2024 Q24.114.00%+0.11%0-3 months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2025 Q33.143.03+0.116-12 months
    CBOCore CPI inflationAnnual growth2025 full year2.732.84%−0.11%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2024 Q362.59762.70%−0.10%3-6 months
    CBOCore CPI inflationAnnual growth2025 full year2.7362.84%−0.10%6-12 months
    FedUnemployment rateQ4 average2025 Q44.4%4.50%−0.10%6-12 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2025 Q43.9963.90%+0.10%0-3 months
    EIARetail gasolineMonthly average retail priceOctober 20264.4044850000000002$4.31/gal+$0.09/gal0-3 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2025 Q262.4962.40%+0.09%12+ months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q33.583.67%−0.09%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2025 Q462.41262.50%−0.09%12+ months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2025 Q462.58762.50%+0.09%6-12 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q34.1874.10%+0.09%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateAnnual average2025 full year4.3854.30%+0.08%6-12 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q13.5093.59%−0.08%3-6 months
    EIANatural gasMonthly average spot priceSeptember 20262.8696152.95−0.080-3 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q34.3754.30%+0.08%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q14.1254.20%−0.08%12+ months
    CBOParticipation rateAnnual average2025 full year62.47362.40%+0.07%6-12 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2024 Q44.4714.40%+0.07%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2025 Q362.22962.30%−0.07%12+ months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2024 Q35.335.26%+0.07%0-3 months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2025 Q14.074.14−0.076-12 months
    CBOProductivity growthQuarterly SAAR2024 Q42.0362.10%−0.06%6-12 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q24.3614.30%+0.06%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q24.2594.20%+0.06%3-6 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2024 Q44.7084.65%+0.06%6-12 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2025 Q14.1524.21%−0.06%0-3 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2024 Q262.65462.60%+0.05%0-3 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q23.583.63%−0.05%6-12 months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2026 Q23.673.62%+0.05%12+ months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2025 Q43.7793.73%+0.05%0-3 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q14.3474.30%+0.05%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2024 Q34.2464.20%+0.05%3-6 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q14.3444.30%+0.04%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2026 Q24.3434.30%+0.04%12+ months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q33.713.67%+0.04%12+ months
    CBO10-year Treasury yieldQuarterly average2026 Q14.244.20%+0.04%3-6 months
    CBONatural gasQuarterly average spot price2025 Q23.153.19−0.046-12 months
    CBOReal GDP growthQuarterly SAAR2026 Q22.1652.20%−0.04%12+ months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q44.4674.50%−0.03%0-3 months
    CBOUnemployment rateAnnual average2025 full year4.2774.30%−0.02%0-3 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q13.6633.64%+0.02%3-6 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2025 Q162.51962.50%+0.02%6-12 months
    CBOECI growthAnnual growth2025 full year3.4853.47%+0.02%0-3 months
    FedHeadline PCE inflationQ4/Q42025 Q42.7%2.72%−0.02%6-12 months
    CBOECI growthAnnual growth2025 full year3.4783.47%+0.01%6-12 months
    CBOParticipation rateQuarterly average2024 Q462.50862.50%+0.01%6-12 months
    CBOUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q34.2944.30%−0.01%6-12 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2026 Q13.6383.64%0.00%12+ months
    CBO3-month bill rateQuarterly average2025 Q14.2124.21%0.00%6-12 months
    CBOFederal funds rateQuarterly average2025 Q14.3294.33%0.00%0-3 months
    CBOPersonal consumptionQuarterly SAAR2025 Q41.9011.90%0.00%12+ months
    FedUnemployment rateQ4 average2025 Q44.5%4.50%0.00%3-6 months
    FedUnemployment rateQuarterly average2025 Q44.54.50%0.00%3-6 months
    CBONatural gasAnnual average spot price2025 full year3.523.520.006-12 months

    Error is the forecast minus the outturn. Actuals link to the underlying FRED series. Statistical agencies revise their own figures, so an outturn is dated from when this index first recorded it. For a period that resolved before ingestion began, the earliest recorded value and the latest are the same number.