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    Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections

    Extracted from https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250618.htm

    Federal ReserveOpen source document ↗

    Published2025-06-18
    Extracted figures13
    Source classInstitution forecast
    Update cadenceQuarterly
    Available formatHTML

    Reported figures

    Each with its source sentence
    MetricPeriodReportedForecast
    Real GDP growth2026 Q4“| Change in real GDP | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2–1.5 | 1.5–1.8 | 1.7–2.0 | 1.7–2.0 | 1.1–2.1 | 0.6–2.5 | 0.6–2.5 | 1.5–2.5 |” — Table 1, Change in real GDP, median row, 2026 column · source ↗2025-06-181.6
    Real GDP growth2027 Q4“| Change in real GDP | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2–1.5 | 1.5–1.8 | 1.7–2.0 | 1.7–2.0 | 1.1–2.1 | 0.6–2.5 | 0.6–2.5 | 1.5–2.5 |” — Table 1, Change in real GDP, median row, 2027 column · source ↗2025-06-181.8
    Unemployment rate2025 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2025 column · source ↗2025-06-184.5
    Unemployment rate2026 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2026 column · source ↗2025-06-184.5
    Unemployment rate2027 Q4“| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.4–4.5 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.2–4.6 | 4.0–4.3 | 4.3–4.6 | 4.3–4.7 | 4.0–4.7 | 3.5–4.5 |” — Table 1, Unemployment rate, median row, 2027 column · source ↗2025-06-184.4
    Headline PCE inflation2026 Q4“| PCE inflation | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8–3.2 | 2.3–2.6 | 2.0–2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5–3.3 | 2.1–3.1 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0 |” — Table 1, PCE inflation, median row, 2026 column · source ↗2025-06-182.4
    Headline PCE inflation2027 Q4“| PCE inflation | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8–3.2 | 2.3–2.6 | 2.0–2.2 | 2.0 | 2.5–3.3 | 2.1–3.1 | 2.0–2.8 | 2.0 |” — Table 1, PCE inflation, median row, 2027 column · source ↗2025-06-182.1
    Core PCE inflation2025 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 |   | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 |   | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 |   |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2025 column · source ↗2025-06-183.1
    Core PCE inflation2026 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 |   | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 |   | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 |   |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2026 column · source ↗2025-06-182.4
    Core PCE inflation2027 Q4“| Core PCE inflation [4](#xt1p1f4) | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 |   | 2.9–3.4 | 2.3–2.7 | 2.0–2.2 |   | 2.5–3.5 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.0–2.9 |   |” — Table 1, Core PCE inflation, median row, 2027 column · source ↗2025-06-182.1
    Federal funds rate2025 Q4“| Federal funds rate | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.9–4.4 | 3.1–3.9 | 2.9–3.6 | 2.6–3.6 | 3.6–4.4 | 2.6–4.1 | 2.6–3.9 | 2.5–3.9 |” — Table 1, Federal funds rate, median row, 2025 column · source ↗2025-06-183.9
    Federal funds rate2026 Q4“| Federal funds rate | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.9–4.4 | 3.1–3.9 | 2.9–3.6 | 2.6–3.6 | 3.6–4.4 | 2.6–4.1 | 2.6–3.9 | 2.5–3.9 |” — Table 1, Federal funds rate, median row, 2026 column · source ↗2025-06-183.6
    Federal funds rate2027 Q4“| Federal funds rate | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.9–4.4 | 3.1–3.9 | 2.9–3.6 | 2.6–3.6 | 3.6–4.4 | 2.6–4.1 | 2.6–3.9 | 2.5–3.9 |” — Table 1, Federal funds rate, median row, 2027 column · source ↗2025-06-183.4